DOWN TO THE WIRE CHANGING CITY MAKES RACE FOR L.A. MAYOR TOUGH TO CALL.

Byline: Rick Orlov Staff Writer

Wooed by months of promises and millions of dollars in campaign ads, Los Angeles voters will go to the polls for Tuesday's mayoral primary to pick the two finalists to debate the future of a city at a historic crossroads.

Not since Tom Bradley came to power by molding a coalition of inner-city minorities and Westside liberals has the political climate of Los Angeles been in such a flux.

Three candidates - the struggling incumbent James Hahn, Councilman Antonio Villaraigosa and the surging former Assembly Speaker Bob Hertzberg - are expected to battle it out for the two spots in the May 17 runoff election.

Which two make it to the runoff depends on a range of unpredictable variables: The impact of last-minute hit pieces, the size of the turnout, get-out-the-vote efforts and how many voters stick with the two other experienced candidates, Councilman Bernard Parks and state Sen. Richard Alarcon, or a slew of minor candidates.

``We are, in some ways, in uncharted territory, politically, which makes the race fascinating,'' said Raphael Sonenshein, a political science professor who has long observed and written about the Los Angeles political scene.

Echoing the view of many other experts, Sonenshein sees Los Angeles politics changing rapidly as the demographics of the city change and its problems deepen - from economic opportunity to traffic congestion, from crime to struggling schools.

``Tom Bradley's election was significant because he was the first minority mayor in a majority city where he built a coalition of black voters along with liberals. The Hahn election broke that mold, attracting black voters, but also voters from the San Fernando Valley.

``Today, we are seeing that transition through to the next level. We aren't sure yet how it will develop and what it will show. One thing we are seeing is the old loyalties aren't there any more. You can lose a constituency faster than you can snap your fingers.''

Indeed, Hahn has been hurt by continuing criminal investigations into allegations of corrupt contracting practices in his administration and is widely perceived as having alienated many black voters with the way he forced Parks out as police chief and many Valley voters with the way he campaigned against secession.

Polls reflect the impact of those actions and have the mayor - unbeaten in six citywide elections - locked in a virtual dead heat with Villaraigosa, who is generally seen as the front-runner in the primary, and Hertzberg, who has overcome low name recognition to get to the top rung of candidates.

``We like our position,'' Hertzberg campaign manager John Shallman said. ``We have been gaining momentum and the mayor has been slipping. Once you start dropping, it is hard to come back.''

The mayor's strategists express similar confidence, counting in great part on union support to mount a strong get-out-the-vote effort on election day.

``We know where our votes are and we know how to get them,'' said Hahn campaign consultant Kam Kuwata. ``Los Angeles is a large, diverse city and you have to campaign in all parts of it to succeed.''

Hahn also has the biggest campaign war chest and the most amount of money being spent on his behalf from independent expenditure committees.

How that plays out Tuesday is being closely watched for keys to where the diverse Los Angeles electorate is heading.

Bradley was elected in 1973 after first losing to Sam Yorty in a bitter 1969 race. He served until 1993, when he retired and Richard Riordan was elected.

Tom Sullivan, who was Bradley's spokesman and involved in his campaign, said he also sees a new voting dynamic in the city.

``There has been a fundamental change in the way campaigns are run and where you get your votes,'' said Sullivan, who is now working as a consultant and is not backing any of the candidates in the election. ``Part of what has changed is the nature of news coverage. There aren't as many news outlets and television news has all but ignored the election except for this last week.

``That places a higher premium on the paid aspect - the television commercials - and that means the campaigns have to raise and spend obscene amounts on television.''

Also, he said, the demographics of the city have changed since Bradley's election - with no one able to predict how different voting blocks will turn out.

``You have a large Latino vote, but it isn't just concentrated on the Eastside anymore,'' Sullivan said. ``There is a large Latino population in the San Fernando Valley and Harbor areas, but they are much more independent voters and the black vote is not as influential as it once was.''

The election has only recently begun to capture any public attention, even though there is a field of 12 candidates and there have been nearly three dozen debates and forums.

Former City Administrative Officer Keith Comrie said he has been impressed with the quality of the candidates and the level of debate that dominated most of the campaign.

``I think it's probably an unusual election because there are so many really highly qualified people running at the same time when people thought, because of term limits, that an incumbent would face only light opposition,'' Comrie said.

``Yet, here you have someone, Jim Hahn, who has never lost an election, is well respected by most people and, in a normal race, would be re-elected easily. Even with all these investigations, no one has said he has personally benefited, yet here we are with such a close election.''

Former Councilwoman Roz Wyman, who served during Mayor Sam Yorty's administration, worked for Bradley's election and has known Hahn since he was born, said she has been amused by some of the issues that have emerged and the number that were issues 50 years ago.

``In 1954-55, I was talking about transportation issues,'' Wyman said. ``When he was elected, all Tom Bradley talked about was the need for rapid transit. I remember making a speech that if we didn't do something about traffic we would have gridlock.''

Wyman, who has not endorsed any candidate, said she has high hopes for whoever emerges in the race.

``Los Angeles is a great city,'' Wyman said. ``Everywhere I travel in the world and you tell people you're from L.A., their eyes light up. They all know about L.A. They all want to come here.''

Joe Hicks, former head of the city Human Relations Commission who now is a vice president of Community Advocates Inc., said he believes it is the image of the city that has led people to now call for an official with more personality.

``The city has had a history of not electing a candidate with a particularly sparkling personality,'' Hicks said. ``Yorty was unique to his times, but Tom Bradley was very stoic publicly and came across as fairly dull. Dick Riordan worked best behind the scenes and Hahn certainly hasn't been sparkling in terms of charisma.

``I think when people look now at the Mayor's Office, they want someone who brings a different leadership style, who will be a mover and shaker.''

Hicks said that is partly why he is backing Hertzberg in the race.

Political analyst Sherry Bebitch Jeffe calls it the Schwarzenegger factor, in honor of Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger and what he has been able to achieve in capturing the public imagination.

``Arnold raised the bar for all politicians with regards to charisma these days,'' Jeffe said. ``Not many are going to have his star quality. He has honed it over 20 years in the movies. But the public is looking for someone to capture their imagination, to seem bold and brash and able to solve problems.

``They want someone who can relate to their problems and express it in a way that reflects their frustrations and their hopes.''

Rick Orlov, [phone]

rick.orlov(at)dailynews.com

HAHN'S HIGHS AND LOWS

Here are some of the key dates of highs and lows in the administration of Mayor James Hahn:

July 2, 2001: Hahn sworn in as 40th mayor of Los Angeles, promising to bring together disaffected groups and declaring, ``Let's get to work.''

February 2002: Hahn announces his opposition to the reappointment of Bernard Parks as chief of police. Parks goes on to win a seat on the City Council.

July 2002: Hahn rejects a proposal to ask voters to restructure city government into boroughs. It was part of a deal aimed at postponing a November vote on San Fernando Valley secession.

October 2002: Hahn appoints William Bratton as chief of police.

November 2002: Secession is defeated. Even though 51 percent of Valley voters favored breaking away, it was blocked in a vote against secession by the rest of the city.

October 2003: City Controller Laura Chick turns over information to the District Attorney's Office regarding a ``pay-to-play'' scheme at the Los Angeles World Airports, after companies said they were forced to give campaign contributions to win city contracts. County and federal grand juries are convened to examine the information.

February 2004: Federal grand jury widens its probe to include contracting procedures at the Harbor and the Water and Power departments.

March 2004: Deputy Mayor Troy Edwards, Hahn's chief political fund raiser and his liaison to the Airport, Harbor and DWP, resigns as part of a Hahn administration shakeup.

April 2004: Hahn accepts the resignation of Airport Commissioner Ted Stein, who denied any allegations of wrongdoing in the pay-to-play scandal.

August 2004: The federal grand jury subpoenas e-mails and other messages from the Mayor's Office. Chick withdraws her endorsement of Hahn's re-election.

SOURCE: Daily News research

ELECTION DAY

Tuesday is Election Day in Los Angeles and several other areas including San Fernando, Calabasas, the Los Angeles Community College District and the Los Angeles Unified School District.

Voting locations will be open from 7 a.m. to 8 p.m.

To find the location of your polling place, see the information on the back cover of the sample ballot you received in the mail. Or, call [phone] in Los Angeles or [phone] countywide.

For an online search of your voting location, log on to www.lavote.net, a service of the Los Angeles County elections office.

CAPTION(S):

photo, 2 boxes

Photo:

no caption (Hahn)

Box:

(1) HAHN'S HIGHS AND LOWS (see text)

(2) ELECTION DAY (see text)