DOLLARS & SENSE; COST TO WIN IS STEEP.

Byline: Frank C. Girardot Staff Writer

In baseball, you can't buy victories.

The experiences of the Dodgers and the Baltimore Orioles this season are prime examples. The teams rank second and third in total payroll but are far from playoff contention and they aren't very cost effective.

A computer study of the payrolls of all 30 major-league teams shows both the Dodgers and Orioles are spending more than $1 million per victory - highest in the majors - yet both clubs are languishing in the depths of the standings.

``Baseball is a business predicated on talent judgments,'' said Sandy Alderson, vice president in charge of operations for Major League Baseball and former general manager of the Oakland A's.

``It's all about probabilities. Sometimes you get lucky.''

The study, which examined the ratio between payroll and winning percentage of all 30 teams projected through the rest of the season, revealed that the Montreal Expos are baseball's most efficient team, paying players $260,895 per win (the amount is based on a team's total payroll divided by its current winning percentage projected over a 162-game season.) That doesn't mean they are successful, though.

The Cleveland Indians, with baseball's best record, are paying $680,616 per win.

``I think it's reflective of the game today,'' said former Dodgers general manager Fred Claire. ``You really need to break it down to how much you pay per win. In some ways, when you throw that into the equation, you get a realistic look at what's taking place.''

The salary figures used in the computer study are those for the 830 major- league baseball players on opening-day rosters and disabled lists. The figures are obtained annually from management and player sources by the Associated Press.

Baseball payrolls have been steadily escalating since the strike-shortened 1994 season. As payrolls have grown, the competitive gap between teams in large markets such as Los Angeles and New York and those in small markets such as Kansas City and Montreal has also grown.

Last season, it took a payroll of more than $48 million to make the playoffs. The Yankees, who paid $65 million to assemble baseball's best team of the 1990s, won the World Series.

But paying top dollar isn't the surest way to success, noted Claire. The secret lies in achieving some sort of balance between multimillionaire veterans and lower-paid players.

``When you have players making $250,000 or $300,000 on your team performing in all-star fashion, that helps you balance out,'' Claire said. ``You must have youth coming into your team or you can never get balance between performance and payroll.''

The Yankees, with baseball's largest payroll, have 17 players who will earn more than $1 million this season. But the team also has six players making less than $300,000.

As for the Dodgers, eight players on the team's opening-day roster make less than $300,000. But the team also has 18 players making more than $1 million, including baseball's richest player, Kevin Brown, who will make $10.7 million in 1999.

Among cost-effective teams in the study, the Oakland A's have 13 players making less than $300,000; the Cincinnati Reds have 10 players making less than $300,000 and only eight making more than $1 million.

``Money has never guaranteed success, but it can be a prerequisite,'' said Alderson. ``What happens over the course of 162 games is a lot different than what happens over 81.''

Seattle Mariners slugger Ken Griffey Jr. agreed with Claire's analysis.

``It doesn't matter how much you pay somebody,'' Griffey said. ``It's the guys you get and how they click together; do they complement one another?''

Griffey, who will earn $8.5 million this season, pointed out when a team does poorly many times it's the highly paid players - not the rookies making scale - who become objects of ridicule.

``You've got a lot of people looking to us as targets because of how much we make,'' he said. ``You make an out at the ballpark and some guy jumps all over you. You make an error and he's all over you again.

``But that guy doesn't think. It's baseball. It happens all the time. The fact is, you get paid more when you put in five, six or seven good years. And you need the guys just coming up to round things out.''

Jason Giambi of the Oakland A's understands all too well the link between payroll and performance. Oakland has the fourth-smallest payroll in baseball, $22 million, and little chance of making the playoffs this season despite being on track to win 80 games in the weak AL West.

``It makes it tough to play the whole season on a team with a $20 million payroll,'' Giambi said. ``But it's a Catch-22. If we spent more money, would the fans come out? I'm not sure they would.''

BARGAIN HUNTING

Here's a look at how the playoffs would look based on standings through Monday. Included is the team's rank in cost per win, with San Francisco and Houston getting the best bargains:

National League

Western Division San Francisco 20

Central Division Houston 16

Eastern Division Atlanta 8

Wildcard  New York 11

American League

Western Division Texas 4

Central Division Cleveland 10

Eastern Division New York 3

Wildcard Boston 12

COSTLY VICTORIES

Here's a look at the 30 major-league teams ranked by cost per win. Wins are based on 162 games at team's current winning percentage:

Rk. Team Wins CPW 

1 Baltimore 69 $1,143,511

2 Dodgers 75 1,056,879

3 N.Y. Yankees 96 885,778

4 Texas 92 813,423

5 Arizona 84 786,655

6 Chicago (A) 79 781,708

7 Colorado 73765,272

8 Atlanta 98 750,867

9 Angels 75 691,069

10 Cleveland 100 680,616

11 New York (N) 93 671,510

12 Boston 89 669,140

13 Seattle 79 632,449

14 St. Louis 80 571,229

15 San Diego 84 569,385

16 Houston 97 532,258

17 Toronto 85 523,639

18 Milwaukee 80 517,447

19 Detroit 66 516,737

20 San Francisco 89 504,984

21 Tampa Bay 70 485,036

22 Cincinnati 92 360,465

23 Kansas City 67 353,821

24 Philadelphia 90 336,639

25 Chicago (A) 79 310,886

26 Florida 61 309,443

27 Minnesota 64 300,664

28 Oakland 83 279,932

29 Pittsburgh 81 274,045

30 Montreal 62 260,895

CAPTION(S):

3 Photos, Chart, Box

Photo: (1--Color) RUSSELL ORTIZ

The Montclair Prep star is 11-6 with 3.38 ERA making $220,000 this season

(2--Color) KEVIN BROWN

He's 10-6 with a 3.79 ERA making $10.7 million per season

(3) The Padres' Tony Gwynn hits a double in the sixth. Padres won 2-1.

Reed Saxon/Associated Press

Chart: TOP PAYROLLS

Here's a look at the teams with the five biggest payrolls and the Angels who rank 12th, where they rank among the 30 teams in winning percentage.

Winning percentages based on games through Monday

Salaries source: USA Today

Illustration by Eric Barrow

Photos by Associated Press

Box: BARGAIN HUNTING (See text)