DOLE WATCHERS NOTE STATE FOCUS SHIFTS TO RACE FOR HOUSE SEATS.

Byline: R.W. Apple The New York Times

When Willie L. Brown Jr. of San Francisco, the wily survivor of dozens of electoral contests, heard the other day that Bob Dole had decided to campaign extensively in California despite the long odds against him here, he knew it could mean only one thing.

``They've decided,'' he said, ``that the best they can do now is concentrate their resources on the House races to save as many seats as they possibly can.''

Coming as it does from a Democrat, Brown's assessment of Republican strategy might be suspect. But in fact it is echoed - off the record - by politicians of both parties across the state. California's 54 electoral votes may no longer be in play, but another bonanza remains available: at least 10 of the state's 52 House seats are up for grabs.

The Democrats need to score a net gain of 18 seats nationwide to wrest control of the House from the Republicans, and they could conceivably achieve a quarter of that total here.

From the enormous 1st District, which touches Oregon, to the compact 49th, whose southern boundary reaches the Mexican border, candidates are pouring millions of dollars into hard-fought battles for six Republican districts, including one where the incumbent is retiring, and four Democratic seats, also including an open district. No other state has so many close races this year.

Two nationally known California legislators face possible defeat. Rep. Vic Fazio, chairman of the House Democratic Caucus, is endangered for his third-straight election, this time by Tim LeFever, who lost by only 7,000 votes in 1994 though he was outspent 8 to 1. And Rep. Robert Dornan, the belligerent Orange County conservative who briefly ran for president, faces a surprisingly stiff struggle against Loretta Sanchez, a Democrat.

President Clinton's big lead in California, if maintained, will inevitably tip more of the battles to the Democrats than might otherwise be the case, although the effect of presidential strength on House races is debated.

For weeks, Speaker Newt Gingrich, R-Ga., who has two of his freshman loyalists fighting for their political lives in this state, has been emphasizing the importance of California to continued Republican control of the House. On a recent visit, he said his party could experience anything from a three-seat gain to a four-seat loss, depending largely on the outcome of the presidential race.

``Two weeks ago, I would have said there won't be much of a change, we would come out pretty close to the 26-26 we have now,'' said Sherry Bebitch Jeffe of the Claremont Center for Politics and Economics. ``Now it looks as if the Democrats should gain seats.''

How many? No one much wants to predict, although it now appears that some Democratic representatives who had seemed in jeopardy are a bit safer.

Dole's ability to help his fellow Republicans is questionable.

Rep. Brian Bilbray of San Diego, a keen backer of the ``Contract With America'' two years ago, is stressing his independence in his television commercials this year, arguing that he has opposed Republican extremists as often as he has clashed with the Clinton administration.

He did not appear at Dole's side when the Republican nominee held a San Diego rally last week.

Bilbray, who defeated Rep. Lynn Schenk by fewer than 5,000 votes in 1994, faces a less formidable candidate this time in Peter Navarro, who has not only run unsuccessfully for other offices three times in recent years but taken positions in the process that are liberal by San Diego standards.

But no discernible Republican tide is running this year, and Navarro, a highly combative campaigner, is doing his best to link the incumbent to his party's unpopular leadership, referring to him as ``Newt Bilbray.''