DOLE TELLS OF DISARRAY.

Byline: Katherine Q. Seelye The New York Times

In a stark acknowledgment that his campaign has gone awry and that he has offered an inconsistent message, Sen. Bob Dole said Monday that he had dismissed his campaign pollster and demoted his deputy chairman, just as the campaign is heading into a make-or-break period.

Dole joked to reporters Monday that his message had changed so often, it could be considered the "flavor of the week."

The moves reflect the turmoil that has beset the Dole campaign since the onetime presumptive nominee eked out a razor-thin victory in Iowa. He lost the New Hampshire primary a week ago, lost again in Delaware over the weekend and could lose in Arizona today. "I don't like coming in second," he said Monday.

Advisers within and close to the campaign said the changes exposed both a candidate who does not know what he wants to say and a campaign staff split by internal power struggles and still arguing over whether negative campaign commercials were the best way for Dole to make his case.

The immediate result of the changes, some of these advisers predicted, would be fewer negative commercials against Dole's opponents and perhaps more bold, defining speeches, like the one he gave last year in Hollywood, denouncing excessive violence and sex in popular culture.

Dole, talking to reporters while campaigning Monday in Marietta, said his television commercials had been "a little negative" and that his polls had been "a little too rosy." The staff changes will rectify both problems, he said.

Dole continued to attribute his deepest problems to the barrage of negative advertising against him by Steve Forbes - not to any inherent weakness in himself as a candidate or in his overall message, which still appears to be evolving.

He said Forbes' ads against him had done so much damage that when voters see one of Dole's own commercials, "they go, 'Uh oh, here's Bob Dole.' "

Political Update

Monday's developments on the presidential campaign trail:

THE CANDIDATES:

Lamar Alexander: Campaigned in Georgia, hoping for a win in his home region to demonstrate he is a serious contender. "As we go into the next century we have a choice about which direction we're going to go," the former Tennessee governor said. "I can see Georgia leading the way."

Pat Buchanan: Declared himself ready to break the "winnability barrier" in Arizona and vanquish doubts he could win the GOP presidential nomination. "I'm beginning to think I'm going all the way," Buchanan said in Tucson, Ariz.

Bob Dole: Hoped good showings in the Arizona, South Dakota and North Dakota primaries would boost his campaign. "We're going to start winning tomorrow for a change," Dole declared in Marietta, Ga. "I'm tired of coming in second." Dole barely won in Iowa and finished second in New Hampshire and Delaware. He has made major staff changes trying to turn his campaign around.

Steve Forbes: Predicted he would make "an excellent showing" in Arizona, but backed away from earlier statements that he hoped to come in first. For the second day in a row, Forbes aired a half-hour TV pitch and tried to lure Dole into an on-air debate. On Monday, he went so far as to offer Dole air fare back to Arizona.

Dick Lugar: Snuggled teddy bears during a tour of the Vermont Teddy Bear Co. The intent of the factory trip, said one of his aides, was to highlight his support for small business. But Lugar acknowledged Vermonters are well known for thinking independently, and that he has a shot for some much-needed momentum. Lugar has placed in single digits in every primary so far.

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POLITICAL UPDATE (see test)