DOLE'S FAILURE TO ATTRACT YOUNGER VOTERS COULD HELP CLINTON.

Byline: Robert A. Rankin Knight-Ridder Tribune News Wire

Something is missing from the mountain of votes Sen. Bob Dole keeps piling up in Republican primaries, and Democratic analysts are downright gleeful about it.

It's young people.

Only 8 percent of the voters in New York's GOP primary Thursday were under 30, exit polls showed, while 35 percent were 60 and over - just like the primary's 72-year-old winner, Bob Dole.

Two-thirds of New York GOP voters over 65 backed Dole, but only about half those under 30 did. In other states Dole also has had problems attracting large numbers of young voters.

Democrats smell the age issue starting to percolate. They're licking their lips at the prospect of Baby Boomer Bill Clinton, 49, facing off against World War II-era Dole.

"The exit polls are showing that Dole does not attract young voters. That may be a clear opportunity for Democrats. Younger voters have been nemeses for Democrats since Ronald Reagan," said Bob Beckel.

Beckel should know. He managed Walter Mondale's 1984 presidential campaign, which Reagan crushed even though he was then 73. Apparently Dole lacks Reagan's grandfatherly charm for today's younger voters.

"Voters are just flabbergasted by Dole's age," said Celinda Lake, who conducts polls for the Democratic Party. "There's a real generation gap."

Will Clinton try to exploit the age issue overtly?

"I think that would be appalling," said Ann Lewis, deputy manager of the Clinton-Gore '96 campaign. Besides, he doesn't have to.

"A picture's worth 1,000 words," observed Beckel.

Some nonpartisan analysts are reluctant to conclude yet that Dole is having problems attracting young voters. Lawrence Jacobs, an expert in political polling at the University of Minnesota, was one who voiced skepticism.

"That's such an easy thing to nail Dole on. Let's face it. Primaries are a very restricted universe of activists. Local party organizations get their people out. That's obviously a self-serving conclusion for the Democrats to draw," said Jacobs.

Clinton has not formally announced that he is running for re-election, but he's already in full stride. He found his campaign themes during his winter showdown with the Republican Congress over how to balance the budget, and polished them in his Jan. 23 State of the Union address.

Clinton is campaigning as the defender of Medicare, Medicaid, education and the environment. He is claiming that he alone stands between those popular programs and a heartless Republican Congress out to gut them.

"On those issues, Sen. Dole has been a part of the Republican thrust in trying to balance the budget by substantially cutting or reducing each one of those items," said Don Fowler, co-chairman of the Democratic National Committee. "I don't think he (Dole) can escape responsibility for (that)."

In addition, Clinton's emphasis in his State of the Union speech that America stands on the verge of an "Age of Possibility" helps him pose as the gatekeeper to the future - and provides an easy contrast to the elderly Dole as a man rooted in the past.

So far Clinton's strategy seems to be working. A Wall Street Journal/NBC News poll released Friday showed 51 percent of the public holds a positive view of Clinton - a 27-month high in that survey series - while his unfavorable ratings sank to 32 percent.

Asked if Clinton is likely to go after Dole directly, Lewis said, "I don't see that we do that. Sen. Dole is a leader in the Republican Congress. The public has a sense of what the president's values and principles are, and the contrast there."

Dole does hold two aces in his match against Clinton, Democratic analysts concede - his reputation as a man of unblemished character, and his record of military heroism. Clinton is vulnerable in both areas.

"They've got to take advantage of those fault lines," Beckel mused.