DODGERS ANALYSIS: DODGERS JUGGLE ALL OBJECTIVES.

Byline: Brian Dohn Staff Writer

The smorgasbord begins today as the winter meetings commence in Anaheim, but the Dodgers find themselves in a tight, unforgiving spot.

They go in with three objectives: Reduce payroll by about $10 million, strengthen the bullpen and bolster the bench.

How the Dodgers perform in 2000 will depend heavily on what takes place in Anaheim, but the club goes into the ultra-important meetings with an enormous X-factor that threatens to throw their plans off kilter.

The Dodgers need an answer on the Adrian Beltre saga before they can move forward, but baseball said it won't announce one until late next week. If Beltre is declared a free agent and baseball forbids the Dodgers to re-sign him, the club may have to trade for a third baseman or pay $12 to $15 million for free agent Todd Zeile.

However, as general manager Kevin Malone drives down I-5 today to engage in face-to-face trade talks and free-agent negotiations, he has five days to face five crucial things:

Trade Ismael Valdes. Plenty of clubs want the 26-year-old pitcher, so Malone will have the opportunity. And moving Valdes would chop approximately $6 million of payroll from the Dodgers' budget.

Dodgers insiders echo the sentiment of pitching coach Claude Osteen, who late in the season questioned Valdes' toughness. The Dodgers are confident either Mike Judd, Eric Gagne or Jeff Williams can take over the fifth spot.

Colorado has shown enormous interest lately, but any deal involving Valdes has two prongs. The Rockies must also be willing to take on the burden of either second baseman Eric Young's contract (two more years, $9 million) or Jose Vizcaino ($3.5 million salary next season). Sources said the Rockies weren't willing to take on Vizcaino as well.

Milwaukee, Texas, Detroit, Colorado, St. Louis and Boston could all make a run at Valdes, who will be a free agent after the 2000 season. That makes it more difficult to trade for top-notch prospects.

Trade Young. If for no other reason, how can a club ask him to return, play second base and lead off when much of their offseason energy is spent on moving him?

The biggest deterrent is his contract, which guarantees the 32-year-old $4.5 million in each of his next two seasons. Colorado also showed interest in reacquiring Young, but sources in Denver said the Rockies weren't willing to make such a financial commitment to him. Colorado's signing of Tom Goodwin all but dashed that chance.

Malone and Atlanta general manager John Schuerholz spoke last month at the general managers' meetings, presumably about a Young-for-Bret Boone deal. Even though the Braves need a leadoff hitter, an Atlanta source said the Braves are weary because of Young's limited range and trouble turning the double play.

Several industry sources said Young most likely would end up in St. Louis in a deal for a minor-league pitcher. A past deal was nixed after the clubs couldn't agree on how much of Young's contract the Dodgers would pay.

Find a third baseman. The predominant thought throughout baseball is the Dodgers will loose Beltre.

One thing they could do is negotiate a new contract with him now. In turn, Beltre could drop his request to be a free agent, and though baseball could fine and discipline the Dodgers, Beltre may stay.

If baseball voided a new contract, Beltre's agent, Scott Boras, could file a grievance to keep his client with the Dodgers. As it is, Boras is expected to file a grievance if Beltre is not declared a free agent. The players' association may also file a grievance because baseball, which has known about the case more than a month, is taking so long to announce a decision.

A source said the players' grievance could happen today.

Strengthen the bench. Can't be done until the Dodgers reduce payroll. Club and baseball sources said Malone can't sign any free agents, regardless of magnitude or cost, until payroll is reduced via trades.

The two most likely candidates - utility infielders Terry Shumpert and Kurt Abbott - could sign elsewhere soon. Shumpert is expected to re-sign with the Rockies and Abbott is being courted by the Mets. Malone spoke with Shumpert's representatives about the parameters of a deal, but one wasn't offered.

Strengthen the bullpen. There aren't a lot of alternatives here. Though Baltimore's attempt to re-sign left-handed power pitcher Arthur Rhodes stalled, a four-year contract for $10-to-$14 million is likely too rich a commitment given the Dodgers' lack of flexability.