DISNEY STOCK PRICE TUMBLES; ANALYST'S UPDATED PROFIT ESTIMATES FOR BURBANK CONGLOMERATE TRIGGER CHANGE.

Byline: Dave McNary Daily News Staff Writer

High-flying Walt Disney Co. stock took its biggest hit Thursday since October's market crash over worries about the cost of professional football rights and the prospects for this summer's films.

Disney shares lost 5 to 119 3/16 - after trading as low as 118 15/16 - for a 4 percent loss. The shares are still up 54 percent from Oct. 27 - when they slumped 4-5/8 to 77-3/4 for a 5.6 percent loss - because of better-than-expected earnings, strong prospects for theme parks and a 3-for-1 stock split.

Thursday's sell-off was triggered when Richard Simon, an influential analyst with Goldman Sachs & Co., cut a dime from his profit estimate for fiscal 1998 ending Sept. 30 to $3.10 a share, and sliced 15 cents from his 1999 estimate to $3.65. His 1998 figure is well below the $3.17-a-share average derived from 31 analysts surveyed by IBES International Inc.

Though he maintains a ``buy'' rating, Simon said Burbank-based Disney will lose money from the eight-year, $9.2 billion National Football League contract won by ABC and ESPN. ``We are increasingly concerned about the challenge to offset as much of the sports rights cost increases as we are forecasting,'' he said.

Simon said ABC probably can't boost NFL ad revenues enough to offset the rise in annual costs to $550 million from $230 million. He forecast ESPN will lose $30 million a year rather than his previous break-even prediction and warned of possible resistance from cable operators to raising rates.

Simon cut his 1998 operating earnings forecast on broadcasting operating profits to $1.31 billion from $1.33 billion, citing ongoing ratings weakness at the ABC television network, which has been mired in third place. He also predicted that the accounting used for the 1996 purchase of Capital Cities/ABC will lead to a lower bottom-line contribution in fiscal 1999.

The analyst also downgraded his outlook for Disney's summer movies, which include ``The Horse Whisperer,'' ``6 Days, 7 Nights,'' ``Mulan,'' ``Armageddon,'' ``Jane Austen's Mafia'' and ``The Parent Trap.'' Analysts believe ``Armageddon,'' an asteroid-vs.-Earth thriller, could be a major hit but could be hurt by Paramount's release today of ``Deep Impact,'' a comet-vs.-Earth thriller.

Simon cut his 1998 operating profit forecast for the creative content division to $1.91 billion from $2 billion, calling his earlier estimate ``overly optimistic,'' and reduced his 1999 estimate to $2.28 billion from $2.37 billion. ``A Bug's Life,'' co-produced with the same company that co-created ``Toy Story'' and due out in November, is the strongest film so far for the 1999 fiscal year.

Simon also said a new Islands of Adventure theme park that Universal Studios plans to open next year in Orlando, Fla., could take away business from Disney's four parks in the Orlando area.

But Simon remains optimistic about the theme parks-resorts segment, expanding with the recent opening of Animal Kingdom, the upcoming revamp of Tomorrowland at Disneyland and the launch of a cruise line in July. He raised his 1998 operating profit estimate on the sector to $1.35 billion from $1.32 billion, and his 1999 estimate to $1.61 billion from $1.54 billion.

Other analysts who follow Disney said they had no plans to lower estimates. Stewart Halpern of Furman Selz, who has estimates of $3.16 for 1998 and $3.79 for 1999, said it was premature to change figures before the summer movie season starts.

Halpern said that even if Disney falls short of the 1998 target, the entertainment company has enough momentum to post an impressive 20 percent year-to-year gain in profits in 1999.