DIGITAL L.A. : THE FUTURE OF TECHNOLOGY IS ALREADY HERE.

Byline: David Bloom 

Among the raft of technology-oriented books that have floated by in recent weeks, two have particularly intrigued us.

Perhaps the most fascinating is Neil Gershenfeld's ``When Things Start to Think'' (213 pages, Henry Holt; $25).

Gershenfeld, who co-directs the Things That Think research group of the Massachusetts Institute of Technology's Media Lab, among other duties at the Cambridge campus, has written a highly readable overview of the way computers are penetrating areas you might never imagine, from clothing to paper, earrings to shoe heels, and kitchen appliances to cello bows.

The results are going to be transformative - and fairly soon, he said. Now, Gershenfeld's not the only one to say some of this stuff.

Last year, for instance, Paul Saffo of the Institute for the Future predicted in a Los Angeles appearance that the dominant technology trend of the next 20 years will be hanging sensors - that have the ability to see, hear, smell, touch, even taste surroundings - on computers.

That will rapidly expand the machines' ability to learn, react and develop, and to interact with humans more intelligently, Saffo said.

But that vision doesn't go far enough, Gershenfeld said, proceeding to eloquently argue his point.

``Everything I've been doing my whole life is looking at bits and atoms and how they relate to each other. Sensors are an important piece of the story, but the bigger story is the merging of bits and atoms,'' Gershenfeld said in an interview.

``The world becomes an interface,'' Gershenfeld said. ``If the world does become your interface, then computers know what you're doing. They can sense objects in their environment. That's a piece of the puzzle. The next step is (when) components know each other.''

That's where efforts such as Sun Microsystems' Jini language, which is designed to let ``information appliances'' of all sorts - from smart refrigerators that know when you're out of milk to a room that knows to turn on the music, turn up the heat and turn on the lights when you enter - can talk to each other.

And then there's Gershenfeld's notion of the personal fabricator, essentially the three-dimensional version of a fax machine.

Need a new coffee cup? Download the specifications from some online center (probably for a nominal charge) into your home p.fab. It'll cut and aggregate materials to make the cup right there in your utility room.

And it's not just simple stuff coming out of the p.fab. The electronics for many kinds of devices could essentially be printed onto the materials by the fabricator, using some of the techniques just now being developed at MIT and elsewhere.

``You're printing not just the structure but function,'' Gershenfeld said. ``There'll be a world of clock-radio designers. You can design your own - upload it on the Net for other people to use if they want.''

The changes wrought by thinking things will be gradual but are already happening in some areas, such as with safety products and toys.

One great example is Lego's MindStorms, which meld the company's mainstay, interchangeable building blocks with simple but programmable computers. MIT's Media Lab helped develop the toys, which were a big hit after their introduction last Christmas.

Gershenfeld said the product is remarkable because it lets children build functions into their toys.

Of course, what also has happened is that the MindStorms have become a big hit with adults, who are using them to create a wide range of simple devices. The only knock (aside from their somewhat steep price) is the desire for more possibilities, users have said. The company has begun rolling out add-on modules with new abilities.

But while only a few thinking things are showing up in the market, Gershenfeld said his is ``not a book about the distant future. So much of this is already working in the laboratory.''

And as technology melds separate kinds of boxes into one big digital manipulator, much more is possible - and by many more people who no longer have to serve a long apprenticeship learning to create amazing art, music and more.

``Fundamentally, it's exciting,'' Gershenfeld said. ``If one thing can be your PC, a Strad (Stradivarius violin) and TV at the same time, you can reduce the barriers to personal expression.''

One of Gershenfeld's most refreshing aspects, however, is his insistence that any new technology be at least as convenient, useful and powerful as whatever it is replacing.

``It's surprising that it needs to be stated,'' Gershenfeld said of that maxim, repeated throughout his book. ``It seems to be such a simple thing to say.''

But let's say it again, via one specific example that Gershenfeld uses early in his book to make a very good point.

Paper remains a remarkably efficient, cheap, high-resolution way to transmit huge amounts of information conveniently. Even the best computer screens remain rotten at it. When the electronic paper Gershenfeld talks about in his book becomes widely available, then we'll have something.

For a quick overview of what Gershenfeld is up to, he suggests checking out a couple of related Web sites: www.media.mit.edu/physics for general information about his department and links to the Media Lab and other projects, and www.media.mit.edu./ttt for the Things That Think consortium.

Nothing but hits

Another good read comes from Michael J. Wolf, who heads the 200-person entertainment and media practice at New York-based management consultant Booz-Allen and Hamilton.

Wolf's ``The Entertainment Economy'' (296 pages, Times Books; $25) has a simple but arresting thesis, particularly if, like many Angelenos, you already live off the hometown entertainment industry.

``The point is that entertainment has become a driving force throughout the rest of the economy,'' Wolf said in a recent interview. ``It's having a huge impact on how we do everything. The rest of the world increasingly looks to Hollywood not only for its stories but for the marketing techniques. And when those techniques are applied to other areas, they become even more powerful.''

The reason?

``People's lives have changed,'' Wolf said. ``They don't have as much time and want to have a good time. It's become this generation's entitlement. Most people already have the stuff they need. We're becoming a world of fun-focused consumers.''

And not just in the United States, Wolf said. Even in extremely poor countries such as China, ``entertainment is viewed as a necessity. You can find families that earn $2,000 a year but have a VCR and buy a couple of videos a year.''

But what's happened, Wolf said, is the seeping into the broader economy of the entertainment industry's approach to creating successful products. Hit brands and the canny marketing that helps create those hits are the way companies make money these days, Wolf said.

``Everything is moving into this hits-and-flops culture,'' Wolf said.

As examples, he points to the unheard-of $175 million marketing budget Gillette used in 1990 when it debuted its Sensor razor. Within two years of its launch, that one brand controlled a whopping 18 percent of the razor market, and more than $1.2 billion of the razors were sold.

Then as that hit's sales power waned, Gillette came out last year with its Mach3 successor, burnishing the three-blade razor's image to a high-tech sheen with a gargantuan $300 million marketing budget that helped push the company's market share and stock price to all-time highs.

Entertainment itself has become the way to revive fading downtowns around the country, including in the Los Angeles area.

Wolf points to the beneficial impact of a Magic Johnson Theatres complex on its Baldwin Hills neighborhood. Other areas such as Pasadena's Old Town, Long Beach's Pine Street and Santa Monica's Third Street Promenade have flowered as well in recent years with the addition of theater complexes and entertainment-minded retail shopping areas.

And the lessons of the entertainment economy will directly impact where the Internet goes as well, Wolf said.

``Unless you provide engaging content, people aren't going to come,'' Wolf said. ``TV has set a high expectation for the Internet. People are going on the Internet expecting to have an engaging entertainment experience.''

That means anybody who goes on the Internet becomes the equivalent of a network television programmer (not a computer programmer), Wolf said.

``Look at the Pepsi.com site,'' Wolf said. ``The one thing you can't get there is a Pepsi. Pepsi becomes an entertainment programmer.''

Smaller retailers are going to have to create more entertaining ways to shop if they want to survive in an era where Net-connected consumers can shop the world for the best price on many products.

``I got an e-mail from a guy who has done entertainment stuff in his furniture business to attract customers,'' Wolf said.

Another correspondent runs a women-oriented bookstore that regularly organizes events there that might appeal to its customers. Those retailers have a chance to do well in the new era, he said.

Wolf is sanguine about the future of Los Angeles, where he spends much time, as the dominant entertainment capital of the world, even as that business reaches into more of our lives.

``In a world where technology becomes an equalizer, the creative element becomes even more important,'' Wolf said. ``Talent becomes the important differentiator. That's important for people in Los Angeles.''