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DETROIT LEADING BUSINESS BAROMETER IMPROVES IN SECOND QUARTER

 DETROIT LEADING BUSINESS BAROMETER IMPROVES IN SECOND QUARTER
 DETROIT, Aug. 6 /PRNewswire/ -- The local economy is expected to show further improvement in the second half of 1992, according to the Detroit Leading Business Barometer (DLBB). In the second quarter, the Barometer improved from a level of 2.5 in March, to a mark of 3.2 in June. The leading indicator, prepared by Comerica Incorporated (NYSE: CMA), has risen three full points from December's level of 0.2.
 Typically, gains in the Barometer foreshadow improved business conditions for the Detroit-area economy by one to two quarters. Favorable year-to-date gains for the DLBB thus are portending a 6 percent to 7 percent gain for the bank's Detroit Area Business Activity Index (DABAI) during 1992, its strongest performance since 1984. Not surprisingly, the last time the Barometer experienced similar gains was in late 1982, when it accurately foretold an improved local economy in 1983 and 1984. However, despite better economic conditions forecasted for the remainder of 1992, the DLBB has not risen to levels comparable to those experienced in 1983. In 1983, the DLBB rose to nearly 6.0, which was followed by double-digit growth for the local economy. While the Barometer has experienced upward momentum in 1992, it has failed to reach levels comparable with past early expansion periods, providing further evidence that the current recovery will fail to match its predecessors.
 The Detroit Leading Business Barometer, compiled by Comerica, Incorporated, combines four series into a single, balanced and comprehensive leading indicator: (1) Detroit Equity 50 Stock Index, (2) Metropolitan Detroit Purchasing Management Index, (3) local yield curve spread and (4) inflation-adjusted money growth.
 -0- 8/6/92
 /CONTACT: David L. Littmann, first vice president and senior economist, 313-222-7241, or David G. Sowerby, vice president and economist, 313-222-4829, both of Comerica, Incorporated/
 (CMA) CO: Comerica, Incorporated ST: Michigan IN: FIN SU: ECO


JG -- DE028 -- 7686 08/06/92 15:25 EDT
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Publication:PR Newswire
Date:Aug 6, 1992
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