DERBY ODDS APPEAR ODD.

Byline: KEVIN MODESTI Horse Racing 

INGLEWOOD - A morning line doesn't really mean much at the end of the day, when the races are over and the winning tickets are being cashed. It's nothing more than a track employee's educated guess at how the betting will set the actual odds that determine the payoffs.

Yet, if that track employee is on top of the game, the morning line printed in a racing program can be a useful guide for fans.

So when Churchill Downs' Mike Battaglia made the statement recently that he expected to peg Kentucky Derby favorite Harlan's Holiday at 5-1, handicappers read it as a not-insignificant error in judgment.

If Harlan's Holiday actually went off at 5-1 odds in the Derby a week from Saturday, he would be the most lukewarm favorite in the race's 128 runnings. Even in a 20-horse field, even in an open race, that sounds excessive.

``It might be higher,'' Battaglia told the Louisville Courier-Journal, raising the possibility of morning-line favorite at 6-1 or more.

Twice in the past decade, a Derby favorite went off at 4-1 or higher. Prairie Bayou was 4.40-1 and finished second to Sea Hero in 1993. The coupling of Excellent Meeting and General Challenge was 4.80-1 and finished fifth and 11th to Charismatic in 1999. Five other favorites have gone off at 3-1 or higher - and none of them won the race either.

Battaglia evidently believes, after the slow-unfolding prep season, that this will be the most wide-open Derby of all time. He said he thinks Harlan's Holiday's pedestrian clocking in the colt's Blue Grass Stakes victory will turn off bettors.

But Harlan's Holiday's credentials aren't slight. However uninspiring his speed ratings, the colt ridden by Edgar Prado won convincingly in the Florida Derby and the Blue Grass. He's only the ninth horse to go into the Kentucky Derby after winning both races. Three of the first eight won (Northern Dancer, Forward Pass and Spectacular Bid). None of the eight went off at odds of more than 3.40-1 (Northern Dancer).

Among those who think 5-1 sounds ridiculous is Harlan's Holiday's trainer, Ken McPeek.

``I think the horse is going to go off at 3-1, and I've told Mike (Battaglia) that,'' McPeek said Thursday from Kentucky. ``I think he's going to get a lot of support because people are rooting for him. I think he's kind of a working-man's horse. He's an Ohio-bred. He's done everything right.

``In my mind, he's going to run a great race. They're going to be hard-pressed to knock him out of the top three. From there, you just have to hope for a little luck and clear sailing.''

It's a racetrack truism that when there's no clear second choice, a favorite will draw more betting. That might apply to this year's Derby.

In his comments to the Courier-Journal 12 days ago, Battaglia said he expected to make Buddha about 6-1, Medaglia d'Oro about 6-1 and Came Home - the Santa Anita Derby winner - about 8-1.

Don't expect $12 for your $2 on Harlan's Holiday.

--Head count: This would be the 20-horse Kentucky Derby field if entries were taken today: Blue Burner, Buddha, Came Home, Castle Gandolfo, Easy Grades, Essence of Dubai, Harlan's Holiday, It'sallinthechase, Johannesburg, Lusty Latin, Medaglia d'Oro, Ocean Sound, Perfect Drift, Private Emblem, Proud Citizen, Request for Parole, Saarland, War Emblem, Wild Horses and Windward Passage.

Topping the waiting list, according to graded-stakes earnings: Crimson Hero, USS Tinosa and Sunday Break.

--The weekend: Hollywood Park's third California Gold Rush Day, a 10-race card for Cal-bred horses to be held Sunday, is headed by the $250,000 Snow Chief Stakes for 3-year-olds. Gobi Dan, one of the allowance-level winners topping the field, will have to catch sprinter Menacing Dennis in the 1 1/8-mile race.

Chris McCarron will try to win the $100,000 Hawthorne Handicap for the sixth year in a row when he rides Ask Me No Secrets on Saturday. McCarron's fifth in a row aboard Printemps last year matched a Hollywood Park record established by Don Pierce in the 1969-73 runnings of the Los Angeles Handicap.

OUT OF THE GATE

SANTA ANITA STANDINGS

Final

Jockeys Wins

Alex Solis 76

Kent Desormeaux 70

Laffit Pincay 66

Victor Espinoza 57

Chris McCarron 48

Trainers Wins

Bob Baffert 43

Bill Spawr 32

Bobby Frankel 27

Bruce Headley 22

Jack Carava 18

ON THE STAKES SCHEDULE

Hollywood Park

Today

--$100,000 Wilshire Handicap, 3-year-olds and up, fillies and mares, 1 mile on turf

Saturday

--$100,000 Hawthorne Handicap, 3-year-olds and up, fillies and mares, 1 1/16 miles

Sunday

--$250,000 Snow Chief Stakes, 3-year-olds bred in California, 1 1/8 miles

--$200,000 Melair, 3-year-old fillies, 1 1/16 miles

--Eight other stakes for Cal-breds on California Gold Rush Day

Bay Meadows

Saturday

--$250,000 San Francisco Mile, 3-year-olds and up, 1 mile on turf

Churchill Downs

Saturday

--$100,000 Derby Trial, 3-year-olds, 1 mile

Lone Star

Saturday

--$300,000 Texas Mile, 3-year-olds and up, 1 mile

PINCAY WATCH

Laffit Pincay received a stay to allow him to appeal a scheduled three-day suspension for a riding infraction last Friday at Santa Anita and will compete at Hollywood Park today through Sunday. Pincay's record career-wins total is up to 9,341.

A WEEK AT THE RACES 

Warren Stute saddled Fin Entertainment to win Thursday's sixth race at Hollywood Park - a couple of days after the 80-year-old trainer apparently suffered a mild stroke. Stute, older brother of trainer Mel Stute, had tests Tuesday after experiencing numbness in a leg and finger. He was at work at his barn when the track's 63rd season opened Wednesday. ``I'm probably not going to get on horses anymore,'' said Stute, who had been galloping his own horses. ... Betting from all sources increased a huge 8.6 percent although on-site attendance declined 5.3 percent to 9,930 a day during the Santa Anita season that ended Sunday. Santa Anita Derby winner Came Home was named Horse of the Meet in a press-box poll. ... Pat Valenzuela returned from a nearly two-year suspension to ride 42 winners and finish sixth in the jockey standings. ... Advertising on jockeys' attire became legal in California on Wednesday. A few riders' pants bear logos of Jockeys Management Group, a corporation whose goal is to attract paying sponsors. ... Picky, picky: Trainer Jerry Hollendorfer tried to claim Aggressive from trainer Paul Assinesi out of Saturday's eighth race at Santa Anita, but the acquisition was voided because the horse's name was misspelled on the claim slip. Those are the rules. ... Jason Lumpkins rode six winners Sunday at Bay Meadows to join Russell Baze as the only jockeys to do it twice at that track. Those who have ridden six winners on a card once at Bay Meadows are Johnny Longden, Bill Shoemaker, Ralph Neves and Bill Harmatz. ... So-called future wagering on the eight Breeders' Cup races will be offered for the first time on four weekends leading up to the Oct. 26 event at Arlington Park near Chicago. It will be patterned after the Kentucky Derby future wagering. Bettors will choose from 23 individual horses and a ``field'' entry in each race. ... Kilroe Mile winner Decarchy heads Saturday's San Francisco mile at Bay Meadows. ... Gulfstream Park Handicap winner Hal's Hope is favored in Saturday's Texas Mile. ... Millennium Wind is about a month away from racing after overcoming foot problems, trainer David Hofmans indicated.

- Kevin Modesti

CAPTION(S):

photo, box

Photo:

no caption (Laffit Pincay)

Box:

OUT OF THE GATE (see text)