DERBY FORMULA A 10-STEP PLAN; INDIAN CHARLIE DOESN'T TOP THE LIST.Byline: KEVIN MODESTI Horse Racing horse racing, trials of speed involving two or more horses. It includes races among harnessed horses with one of two particular gaits, among saddled Thoroughbreds (or, less frequently, quarterhorses) on a flat track, or among saddled horses over a turf course with Sometimes, the best horse wins the Kentucky Derby Kentucky Derby One of the classic U.S. Thoroughbred horse races. It was established in 1875 and run annually on the first Saturday in May at Churchill Downs track in Louisville, Ky. With the Preakness and the Belmont Stakes, it makes up U.S. racing's coveted Triple Crown. . More often, the horse with the swiftest victories in the most prestigious prep races waltzes into Churchill Downs Churchill Downs, Ky.: see Louisville. and is tripped up by his pedigree, his preparation or the bad karma that comes with being favored. That's the premise behind what we modestly call the Ten Commandments for Derby Handicapping, which are presented here again. Starting in 1992, every Derby winner has met at least eight of our 10 criteria, and only '96 winner Grindstone grindstone or grind common metaphor for industriousness. [Pop. Culture: Misc.] See : Industriousness failed to meet nine or 10 of 10. Five of the past six winners scored better on our checklist than the post-time Derby favorites they defeated. We have a good idea who's running in the May 2 Derby - major race winners Cape Town, Event of the Year, Favorite Trick, Halory Hunter, Indian Charlie, Real Quiet and Victory Gallop, as well as Artax, Chilito, Comic Strip, Hanuman Hanuman Monkey god of Hindu mythology, a central figure in the Ramayana. He was a guardian spirit, the offspring of a nymph and the wind god. His great heroic exploit was recovering Rama's wife, Sita, from captivity by the demon Ravana. Highway, Old Trieste, Parade Ground, Shot of Gold and Yarrow yarrow, a plant of the genus Achillea, perennial herbs of the family Asteraceae (aster family), native to north temperate regions. Several species are cultivated as ornamentals for their flat-topped clusters of flowers and scented foliage. Brae brae n. Scots A hillside; a slope. [Middle English bra, from Old Norse br . Now, let's see how the contenders measure up. The big, stone tablets, please: 1. Prefer horses whose pedigree, measured by the controversial but effective ``dosage index,'' shows the stamina to win a 1-1/4-mile race. Of the 1998 horses, Favorite Trick, Real Quiet and Yarrow Brae have dosage indexes on the high (wrong) side of 4.00. 2. Prefer horses who were counted among the leaders of their age group for the previous season - rated within 10 pounds of the leader in the Experimental Free Handicap of 2-year-old colts and geldings. Favorite Trick was the top 2-year-old in '97. Nobody else in the Derby was within 10 pounds, although Real Quiet, Old Triest, Artax and Cape Town didn't miss by much. 3. Prefer horses who won races of one mile or more as 2-year-olds. Demerits for Indian Charlie, Event of the Year, Chilito, Shot of Gold and Yarrow Brae. 4. Throw out horses who didn't win any race at age 2. No such late bloomer has won the Derby since Proud Clarion in '67. Bad news for Shot of Gold (who fails on four other criteria anyway). 5. Prefer horses who had three or four races - no more, no less - between Jan. 1 and the Derby. Every winner since '84 had three or four. Favorite Trick had two races following his long winter rest. Victory Gallop and Old Trieste had two. Comic Strip had five. Lil's Lad will miss the Derby after chipping an ankle in the Blue Grass Stakes The Blue Grass Stakes, currently sponsored by the Toyota Motor Corporation, is an American Grade 1 horse race for 3-year-old Thoroughbreds held annually in mid April at Keeneland Racecourse in Lexington, Kentucky. - his fifth start of '98. 6. Toss out any horse who didn't prep in a 1-1/8-mile race. Old Trieste ran a mile at Santa Anita earlier in the month. He's a talented horse who can't possibly be ready for the Derby. 7. Prefer horses who finished third or better in their final preps, like 38 of the past 40 Derby winner. Well, this is no fun: Every Derby candidate meets the criterion this time. 8. Don't be too impressed by horses who won their final preps. The past six Derby winners saved their best for the first Saturday in May. This is good news for fans of Favorite Trick (third in the Arkansas Derby) and Real Quiet and Artax (second and third in the Santa Anita Derby The Santa Anita Derby is an American Grade 1 thoroughbred horse race for three-year-olds run each April at Santa Anita Park in Arcadia, California and carries a purse of $750,000. ). 9. Prefer horses ridden by jockeys of national renown. This is a weakness for Event of the Year (with Northern California king Russell Baze riding), Hanuman Highway (David Flores Flores, town, Guatemala Flores (flōrəs), town (1990 est. pop. 2,200), capital of Petén department, N Guatemala. Flores was built on an island in the southern part of Lake Petén Itzá and on the site of the ), Chilito (Gary Boulanger) and Yarrow Brae (Willie Martinez). And: 10. Don't bet on the post-time favorite. The Daily Racing Form The Daily Racing Form, LLC (DRF) is a broadsheet newspaper founded in 1894 in Chicago, Illinois by Frank Brunell. The paper publishes the past performances of race horses as a statistical service for bettors on horse racing in the United States. lists Santa Anita Derby winner Indian Charlie as a 5-2 favorite. It's a dubious honor seeing that no favorite has won the Derby since Spectacular Bid in '79. So, who's qualified to wear the roses? Nobody's a perfect 10 for 10. The most suspect of the big-name horses in the race are undefeated Indian Charlie and Jim Beam Stakes winner Event of the Year (each met only six of 10 standards) and Arkansas Derby winner Victory Gallop and Comic Strip (each only seven for 10). Of the major-race winners, Favorite Trick, Halory Hunter, Cape Town and Real Quiet pass eight of the 10 tests, meaning they're qualified for Derby glory. And Artax meets nine of the 10 criteria, meaning you've got to decide if his dull finish in the Santa Anita Derby was just an off day or indicated a distance limitation. Recent history says one of those five will be the next Derby winner. Long goodbye: Six stakes are scheduled for the final, three-day weekend of the Santa Anita season, including the tradition-rich San Juan Capistrano San Juan Capistrano (săn wän kăpĭsträ`nō), city (1990 pop. 26,183), Orange co., S Calif.; inc. 1961. San Juan Capistrano has some manufactures, including aircraft parts, medical apparatus, and boats, but the economy is Invitational on Sunday. At about 1-3/4 miles, the $400,000 Capistrano is North America's longest turf race. This year, the novelty outshines the horses. Kessem Power, with Alex Solis riding, carries high weight (116 pounds) and probably will be favored after winning the San Luis Rey at 14-1 in March. Monday is closing day. Hollywood Park opens a 67-day meet next Friday at 7 p.m. Los Al opens: Los Alamitos begins a 142-night quarterhorse season tonight. First race at the Orange County track will go at 7:15 p.m. on Thursday and Friday and 6:30 on Saturday and Sunday. A WEEK AT THE RACES At The Races is a British television channel, originally co-founded with Channel 4, but now owned by a partnership between British Sky Broadcasting, Arena Leisure PLC and 28 (out of the 59) UK racecourses. Santa Anita standings: Jockeys: Kent Desormeaux, 80 winners; Gary Stevens, 68; Corey Nakatani, 55; Alex Solis, 50; Chris McCarron, 41. Trainers: Bob Baffert, 46; Neil Drysdale, 24; Ron McAnally, 23; Richard Mandella, 20; Randy Bradshaw, 19. Handicapper hand·i·cap·per n. Sports & Games 1. One who assigns handicaps. 2. One who predicts the winners in a horserace, especially one who publishes such predictions as a guide for bettors. Noun 1. helper: When Santa Anita leaders Baffert and Desormeaux have teamed up, they've won 16 of 58 races (27.6 percent). But Baffert actually has done slightly better with David Flores riding, winning 18 of 59 (30.5 percent). Upcoming stakes: At Santa Anita: $100,000 Zany Tactics, 3-year-olds bred in California, 6 furlongs, today; $250,000 Santa Barbara Handicap The Santa Barbara Handicap is a race for Thoroughbred horses run at Santa Anita Park each year. The race is open to fillies and mares, age three and up, willing to race one and one-quarter miles on the turf. The Grade IIT Santa Barbara offers a purse of $200,000. , fillies and mares, 1-1/4 miles on turf, and $100,000 San Simeon Handicap The San Simeon Handicap is a race for thoroughbred horses. It is raced each year at Santa Anita Park. The race is open to four year olds and up willing to race six and a half furlongs on the downhill turf course. The race is a Grade III event with a purse of $100,000. , 6-1/2 furlongs on turf, Saturday; $400,000 San Juan Capistrano Invitational Handicap, 1-3/4 miles on turf, and $100,000 Las Cienegas Handicap The Las Cienegas Handicap is a race for Thoroughbred horses run each year at Santa Anita Park. It is open to fillies and mares, age four and up, willing to race six and a half furlongs down the downhill turf. The race is a Grade III event with a purse of $100,000. , fillies and mares, 6-1/2 furlongs on turf, Sunday; $100,000 Valiant Pete Handicap, Cal-breds, 6 furlongs, and $75,000 Santa Paula, 3-year-old fillies, 6-1/2 furlongs, Monday. At Hialeah: $200,000 Hialeah Turf Cup Handicap, 1 3/16 miles on turf, Saturday. At Lone Star: $250,000 Texas Mile, one mile, and $250,000 Lone Star Derby, 1 1/16 miles, Sunday. Mileposts: Surgery to remove an ankle chip from Lil's Lad's left front ankle was termed successful. The 3-year-old, hurt while finishing second in the Blue Grass, is due back in the fall. . . . Corey Nakatani will ride Blue Grass winner Hallory Hunter in the Kentucky Derby after Gary Stevens chose Indian Charlie. . . . Bob Baffert needs one winner in the last four days at Santa Anita to match Gary Jones' 1975-76 record (47) for the meet. . . . Baffert's Anet will go for a repeat iin the Texas Mile. . . . The bad news: Baffert-trained Isitingood, the one-time mile record holder, was euthanized because of complications of laminitis laminitis (lăm'ənī`tĭs), also called founder, inflammation of the lamina, the innermost layer of the hoof wall in horses, ponies, and donkeys. Although the condition usually affects only the front feet, it may involve all four feet. at a clinic in Cypress. . . . Kent Desormeaux appears sure to win his third Santa Anita riding title in five years. . . . Laffit Pincay rode his 8,600th winner, Closed Escrow, on Saturday, putting him within 233 of Bill Shoemaker's record. . . . Richard Mandella received 10 stalls for the spring Churchill Downs meet and plans to send horses to Saratoga this summer. . . . Tim Yakteen, who has been Charlie Whittingham's assistant trainer since 1991, has rejoined Baffert as an assistant. Michael Whittingham will assist his father. - Kevin Modesti CAPTION(S): Box Box: A WEEK AT THE RACES (See Text) |
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