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DATA POINTS: E-COMMERCE MARKET ESTIMATES.


No Internet business plan is complete without numbers that show the awesome size of the new company's business opportunity. But how trustworthy are these numbers? Not very, judging from the lack of consensus among the researchers who claim to track e-commerce statistics. A publication called The eRetail Report recently compared 15 surveys of "consumer online shopping revenues for 1999," and found that the numbers sprawled all the way from $36 billion (Boston Consulting Group) to $3.9 billion (Direct Marketing Association). In fairness, research firms often segment the marketplace in unique ways, so some of these differences simply reflect variations in methodology. But if market researchers can't agree about how to measure e-commerce sales that have already taken place, it's hard to feel confident about their projections for future sales.

eRetail Report Vol. II, published by eMarketer, 821 Broadway, New York New York, state, United States
New York, Middle Atlantic state of the United States. It is bordered by Vermont, Massachusetts, Connecticut, and the Atlantic Ocean (E), New Jersey and Pennsylvania (S), Lakes Erie and Ontario and the Canadian province of
, N.Y. 10003; 212/677-6300; price, $795. Web: www.emarketer.com.

STANFORD UNIVERSITY Stanford University, at Stanford, Calif.; coeducational; chartered 1885, opened 1891 as Leland Stanford Junior Univ. (still the legal name). The original campus was designed by Frederick Law Olmsted. David Starr Jordan was its first president.  professor of Communications Cliff Nash on the excessive use of slide shows: "Try to imagine the "I have a dream' speech in PowerPoint." (Quoted in Fortune, 12/20/99)

MICROSOFT founder Bill Gates (person) Bill Gates - William Henry Gates III, Chief Executive Officer of Microsoft, which he co-founded in 1975 with Paul Allen. In 1994 Gates is a billionaire, worth $9.35b and Microsoft is worth about $27b.  on his decision to give up his CEO (1) (Chief Executive Officer) The highest individual in command of an organization. Typically the president of the company, the CEO reports to the Chairman of the Board.  title and focus on product development: "I might be threatening to write code. I haven't been able to threaten that for a number of years." (Quoted in The Wall Street Journal, 1/14/00)

LOTUS chief executive Jeff Papows on his plan to join a startup: "The village idiots are getting rich, so given the experience that I've had, I do think I'll be able to add value." (Quoted in The Boston Globe, 1/18/00)

APPLE COMPUTER chief executive Steve Jobs Steve Jobs - Stephen Jobs  on being a company founder: "It's hard to tell with these Internet startups if they're really interested in building companies or if they're just interested in the money. I can tell you, though: If they don't really want to build a company, they won't luck into it. That's because it's so hard that if you don't have a passion, you'll give up." (Quoted in Fortune, 1/24/00)

MICRON ELECTRONICS general manager Michael Gale Michael Gale is a former Australian rules football player who played in the VFL/AFL between 1985 and 1993 for the Fitzroy Football Club and then from 1994 to 1998 for the Richmond Football Club.  on why he believes the demand for market research is drying up: "Research is really born out of ignorance. As people in this industry become more knowledgeable, they need it less. There are enough smart people in this industry that they don't have to spend an enormous amount of money on research." (Quoted in Marketing Computers, 7/99)

ATNEWYORK editor Tom Watson on market research projections: "I have not seen a business plan, and I see hundreds every year, without a Jupiter or Forrester factlet in it. Nobody knows what their business is going to look like in five years, and everyone who writes one knows that. But you gotta got·ta  
Informal
Contraction of got to: I gotta go home. 
 have numbers in the business plan, you just gotta have them, and Forrester and Jupiter provide them, so you put them in." (Quoted in The New York Times Sunday Magazine, 12/19/99)

UNIVERSITY OF CHICAGO economist Austan Goolsbee Austan D. Goolsbee is an economist and is currently the Robert P. Gwinn Professor of Economics at the University of Chicago Graduate School of Business. He is also a Research Fellow at the American Bar Foundation[1]  on Internet taxation: "What we're really talking about is an attempt to raise the sales tax sales tax, levy on the sale of goods or services, generally calculated as a percentage of the selling price, and sometimes called a purchase tax. It is usually collected in the form of an extra charge by the retailer, who remits the tax to the government.  on every consumer in America. Not just in one state or one district or on one type of good. They want to raise taxes for everybody." (Quoted in The Wall Street Journal, 6/29/99)

SOUTH DAKOTA South Dakota (dəkō`tə), state in the N central United States. It is bordered by North Dakota (N), Minnesota and Iowa (E), Nebraska (S), and Wyoming and Montana (W).  governor William Janklow on his belief that Web customers are cheating his state out of sales taxes: "We're going to start stopping little brown trucks and looking at packages." (Quoted in Inter@ctive Week, 12/20/99)

AMERICANS FOR TAX REFORM Americans for Tax Reform is an interest group seeking to reduce the overall level of taxation in the United States, at the federal, state and local level. Its founder and president is Grover Norquist, an influential Republican lobbyist.  director Ron Nehring on public comments received by the Federal Advisory Commission on Electronic Commerce, which show 93% opposition to Web taxes: "As Americans get to understand the Frankenstein tax monster the politicians are building for the Internet, they're deciding they don't like it." (Quoted in DM News, 1/17/00)
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No portion of this article can be reproduced without the express written permission from the copyright holder.
Copyright 2000, Gale Group. All rights reserved. Gale Group is a Thomson Corporation Company.

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Publication:Soft-Letter
Date:Jan 28, 2000
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