DARK SUMMER IN FORECAST.

Byline: Bill Hillburg Washington Bureau

WASHINGTON - California faces a worsening energy outlook this summer with up to 700 hours of rolling blackouts, a utility industry research group warned on Tuesday.

The study, which was gloomier than an earlier estimate by a different group, said the state faces shortages of electricity so severe that up to 5 million homes could be without power at peak hours from June to September. That's as much as one-third worse than previous forecasts.

``This promises to be the worst summer ever in terms of reliability, especially for California,'' said Michehl R. Gent, president of the North American Electric Reliability Council, a nonprofit research group based in Princeton, N.J.

At a news conference at the National Press Club, Gent predicted that if the state is hit by a protracted heat wave, a series of power plant shutdowns or a failure of voluntary conservation efforts, Californians could be in for a worst-case 700 hours of powerlessness this summer.

``We're looking at a minimum of 260 hours of rotating blackouts,'' said NERC researcher Tim Gallagher, who led the team that compiled the new forecast. ``That's an average of 15 hours a week.''

Los Angeles, Burbank and Glendale, with their own municipal utilities, will escape the blackouts but Ventura County and northern Los Angeles County, served by Southern California Edison, face periods of blackouts.

Contingency plans

Officials in Santa Clarita and the Antelope Valley said they have contingency plans should the lights go out.

Los Angeles County sheriff's deputies in Santa Clarita will have a 10- minute warning before the lights go out and plan to keep watch on traffic congestion and backups until it's over, said Sgt. Don Wyman.

Palmdale School District officials have picked out shady spots in school yards and installed shade canopies for pupils to sit under. They've also stocked up on bottled water.

Palmdale school officials are also preparing to assist eight disabled pupils who require medical machinery to suction out tracheotomy tubes or to help with breathing.

The district has purchased auxiliary batteries - the kind used with computers - and adapters to hook to car cigarette lighters to keep the medical devices running in a blackout.

Tuesday's study was more foreboding than a summer forecast released March 22 by the California Independent System Operator, which manages the state's power grid.

Both studies estimated California's peak daily summer power need at 47,703 megawatts. But the new report predicted a daily power shortage averaging nearly 5,000 megawatts, while the ISO's earlier report forecast that the deficit would be whittled down from 3,674 megawatts per day in June to 666 megawatts by September.

One megawatt of electricity can supply power to 1,000 homes for 24 hours.

ISO officials said they would have no comment on the new study. They plan to release their own updated summer power forecast next week on the agency's Internet site (www.caiso.com).

``Every forecast has different assumptions,'' said Stephanie McCorkle, the ISO's communications director. ``We had always planned to update our forecast and will be doing so soon. But we have not and will not be giving an estimate on blackouts.''

NERC officials did not criticize the ISO's report, noting that their researchers had the advantage of using newer and more comprehensive data for their forecast.

The NERC forecast also predicted that Californians' demand for electricity from June to September would be slightly lower than that forecast by the ISO. The new study credited the impact of conservation programs and recently approved rate hikes.

More power for DWP 

NERC researchers said the Los Angeles Department of Water and Power, which is installing six new generators, will have an average of 31 percent more power available this summer than it did in 2000. The report also predicted that the city-owned utility would be able to sell up to 1,500 megawatts of excess electricity per day to energy-starved areas served by Southern California Edison and other struggling, investor-owned utilities.

Darlene Battle, a DWP spokeswoman, agreed that its customers would experience no blackouts this summer. But she estimated that the utility's excess power would be only 500 megawatts per day. ``We will probably keep that level so that we can maintain an adequate reserve,'' she said.

DWP sells its excess electricity, produced at its own plants and transmitted over its own grid, to the state Water Resources Control Board, which in turn allocates and sells power to utilities statewide.

The NERC study claimed that ISO officials overestimated the amount of additional electricity from new power plants and other sources that will be online by September. ISO's forecast called for 3,371 megawatts while the NERC study predicted 1,500 megawatts.

The new study also forecast that outages and repair-related shutdowns at the state's power plants, many of which are more than 30 years old and prone to breakdowns, will mean a reduction of 4,525 megawatts of electricity supply during the summer, compared with an ISO forecast of 2,500 megawatts.

Northwest drought

NERC researchers further predicted that California can expect little help from the Pacific Northwest, long a summer source of imported electricity, due to a protracted and severe drought that has cut hydroelectric power generation.

Jerry Rust, a Pacific Northwest power grid official, said `it would take a rainfall of biblical proportions'' to bring rivers and reservoirs to normal levels by June. Water levels are currently 53 percent of normal in the region, the second-lowest on record.

The new report offered a more optimistic appraisal of California's energy conservation effort, predicting it would save an average of 1,250 megawatts per day during the summer compared with the 596 megawatts forecast by the ISO. The NERC also estimated that a 46 percent rate increase recently approved by the Public Utilities Commission would spur consumers to cut back daily power use by a further 1,950 megawatts. The ISO's study was completed prior to the rate increase and its impact was not included in that forecast.

Gallagher declined to comment on price hikes and charges by California officials and consumer groups that energy producers had been taking advantage of deregulation and shortages by gouging consumers. ``Our study is limited to the reliability of systems and the supply of power,'' he said.

Staff Writers Charles F. Bostwick and Kathleen Sweeney contributed to this story.