Cutting through the chaos: highly skilled, multiple taskmasters will dominate the ever-changing workplace.

You've heard it all before. Downsizing, reengineering, outsourcing and global competition - the change agents of today's workplace that will not let up. Unfortunately, economists, career counselors and futurists all agree that the epidemic of layoffs is still spreading.

Kmart recently closed seven stores after 11 straight quarter losses, bringing their employee casualty rate to 25,000. Last November, AT&T mailed buyout packages to 78,000 of its managers. It's estimated that the merger of Chase Manhattan and Chemical Banks will result in 12,000 layoffs.

Downsizing is no longer just a response to a weak economy and dwindling profits. Early estimates predict that some 420,000 individuals were laid off last year, proving that even as corporate earnings rise and the economy improves, companies nationwide continue to slash payrolls. And the big boys are not the only ones cutting back.

"Many more smaller and medium-sized businesses are taking advantage of the reengineering trend to rid themselves of less productive employees and superfluous functions," says John A. Challenger, executive vice president of Challenger, Gray & Christmas, an international outplacement firm in Chicago that tracks layoffs daily. Those threatened most by this phenomenon are the oldest and youngest members of the workforce, he adds. The reason: Companies feel that veterans are overpaid, while newcomers lack the experience and expertise necessary to compete.

To combat the loss of talent through restructuring and to maintain flexibility, more companies are staffing strategically. They save money and become more efficient by changing the ratio of permanent and temporary workers during high and low workload cycles. The rise in contingent workers is a sign of things to come.

In 1994, almost 25% of America's workforce were contingent workers - temps and independent contractors. From 1990 to 1995, temporary and full-time employment agencies were responsible for close to 900,000 of the 4.1 million new jobs created. As people continue to have difficulty finding work and lose lucrative middle-management positions, a new group has emerged, what Labor Secretary Robert Reich calls the "anxious class." Their anxiety is caused by the ongoing insecurity of the job market.

Although President Bill Clinton touted an increase in jobs last year, it was low compared with the year before. The net gain of 2.1 million jobs from October 1994 to 1995 was substantially less than the almost 3.4 million jobs created during the same period the year before, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. What has not been said is that most of those jobs were in low-paying sectors and temporary employment.

AFFIRMATIVE ACTION BACKLASH

The recent furor over affirmative action will be the greatest threat to jobs for African Americans. "Affirmative action didn't make anyone hire anyone, but it planted a seed that told people they should think about particular groups and issues," says Frederick Miller, president and CEO of The Kaleel Jamison Consulting Group in Cincinnati. California's elimination of affirmative action programs in state universities and the ongoing political debate sends a message to employers that hiring minorities is no longer a priority. Companies say, "I'll just raise the bar on who I bring to the table, and as you raise the bar, a lot of people are left behind," adds Miller. Overwhelmingly, those are minorities.

"If you hear that the unemployment rate is 5% for the general population, it's 10% for blacks; if it takes the average college grad two months to find a job, it takes four months for African Americans," says Washington-based economist Julianne Malveaux. "We [African Americans] are always caught between optimism and despair. We have to believe there is hope or else we'll give up."

Both young and old have to be steadfast and realistic in their approach to careering. "Those students graduating from historically black colleges should not look to placement offices as the sole source of information because recruiters won't be coming," advises Malveaux. A further reality check: Fortune 500 companies are no longer the wellspring of employment. Individuals entering the workforce for the first time as well as those who are already there should look to smaller companies for employment or go out on their own, she advises.

It's no secret that the road to success has always been rocky for African Americans. As opportunities decrease and competition increases, African Americans must maintain their drive and determination. There are plenty of career warriors who have maneuvered the vocational obstacle course and lived to tell about it - even thrived. What they say is that continuous education, upgrading of skills, developing contacts and keeping pace with the changing work environment will help you succeed. Stormy forecasts aside, there is still hope.

THE SCHOOL-TO-WORK TRACK

Despite present trends, a recent Gallup poll showed that today's college seniors are surprisingly optimistic about their futures. On average, most expect an annual salary of $98,000 by the year 2015. Nearly two-thirds expect their standard of living, 20 years from now, to be higher than their parents at the same age. No doubt this optimism is fed by their lack of conventional expectations - most have not seen their parents retire with a gold watch - as well as by youthful bravado and naivete.

The poll also shows that most of the 1995 graduating class plans to work in business and nearly one in five seniors anticipate going to business school. With a 4% to 7% increase in salaries projected this year for MBAs, business school was the first choice for postgraduate study among college seniors. Yet, concerns about tuition expenses loom large.

Gaining a competitive edge isn't the only reason students are pursuing graduate degrees. "More students are opting to go to graduate school because they can't find jobs," says Ada Green, placement counselor at Dillard University in New Orleans, who has seen a dramatic drop in the number of corporate recruiters on campus. She notes one bright spot, however. A nationwide teacher shortage has led to a buyer's market for education majors. "We have over 100 different school districts throughout the country begging our students to come to their states to teach." The demand has been so great, Green says, that last year Dillard placed every one of their education graduates.

For those still in school, Green says, "Begin as early as possible to think seriously about a major that will get you a job. Do not major in psychology without knowing what you're going to do with it.

GEARING UP

"Younger members of the workforce have the flexibility to work on a temporary or contract basis, while older, more experienced individuals have a chance to play the entrepreneurial role in the job market by providing their work-tested expertise to companies," Challenger says. In fact, 88% of the companies surveyed by the Center for Creative Leadership in Greensboro, N.C., said that they were looking for employees with entrepreneurial leadership skills. The reason is simple: Organizations are reshaping themselves in an effort to get closer to the customer, and they want employees with the most customer contacts to make the decisions. Individuals who have run their own businesses are considered self-starters, who require less management.

The growth of self-directed work teams and "empowered" employees requires peripheral vision, the ability to see beyond the "box" of a job description. To drive this point home, companies are awarding bonuses and promotions in order to increase employees' entrepreneurial effectiveness. "There are senior executives with English and philosophy degrees, but that will not happen in the future," warns Miller. "Employers are going for a particular skill set versus hiring people who can come in and grow with the company - it's skills on arrival."

Charting your career path will not be easy. The popular adage still holds true: be flexible. Do not set your career goals based on the growth of a particular industry. Stick to broad business functions such as sales, marketing, finance and data processing, Challenger says. Managers in these areas will always be in demand. People should look to hone their skills in one or two areas and plan on moving from industry to industry, if necessary.

For the college educated, the fastest growing occupations are expected to be in human services, computer engineering and science, systems analysis, special education, paralegal work and physical therapy (see chart). The projected increase in the amount of jobs within the health care industry will be driven by an aging U.S. population and the need to cut health care costs. Many of those jobs may not be in the hospital setting but in assistant care and long-term nursing facilities, says Alexis Waters, spokesperson for the American Physical Therapy Association in Alexandria, Va. With hospital stays decreasing, she adds, there will be a tremendous demand for home health aides and physical therapists and assistants.

"Financial hiring is a harbinger of overall hiring because companies add people in accounting and financing departments in anticipation of growth," says Marc Silbert, spokesperson for Robert Half international, a nationwide personnel firm. Silbert says there was a 6% net increase in financial hiring for the fourth quarter of 1995, with mid-sized firms showing 10% growth. Accounting has not suffered as much as other occupations, according to Beverly Everson-Jones, executive director of the National Association of Black Accountants. "Ten years ago people came out of school and went into public accounting or private industry. Now we're finding people who start out in nonprofit organizations and government. They're looking at other industries other than the traditional large corporate environment," says Everson-Jones.

According to the 1996 Robert Half and Accountemps Salary Guide, more companies are specifically seeking candidates with certified management accountant and CPA credentials because they reflect personal initiative and advanced accounting expertise. Those individuals with a combination of public accounting and private industry experience will also fare well. Knowledge of spreadsheets and accounting software is another important skill to have. In addition, accountants with international, tax and intellectual property experience will be in demand.

The restructuring that has occurred in banking has slowed. Mutual funds, insurance and other financial vehicles have changed the face of traditional banking. There will be ample opportunities for the highly skilled, particularly commercial and retail lenders, loan review and administration officers and auditors. The increase in electronic banking has resulted in the loss of tellers and branch managers. According to Sheila Crawford, president of the National Association of Urban Bankers in Silver Spring, Md., minorities held many of the staff positions in banks that were eliminated. Despite cutbacks, there will be a demand for more client services representatives and sales and marketing specialists, Crawford adds.

Technology continues to drive the shift in employee demand. As businesses continue their migration to client server and network environments, there will be an inevitable demand for microcomputer programmers, programmer analysts and systems administrators. Those specializing in LAN or WAN environments can find great opportunities in regions of the country where there is a shortage of these experts. Industries increasing their information technology staff include health care, insurance, finance, entertainment, manufacturing, distribution and telecommunications.

CHANGING DEMOGRAPHICS

The New England states have learned their lesson from the recession. Companies in Massachusetts, New Hampshire, Rhode Island and Connecticut are staffing cautiously. Major business hubs on the East and West Coasts continue to grow in specialized areas such as finance and high technology. Surprisingly, states such as Colorado, Utah, Minnesota, Tennessee and Florida have experienced unprecedented growth, particularly in manufacturing. Their low cost of living and affordable real estate have attracted a large number of companies and individuals.

But few African Americans have benefited. More often than not, companies relocate to areas where African Americans don't live or want to live. African Americans may be less willing to relocate to an area that cannot offer a cultural and social landscape that they are comfortable with. As a result, the company's minority base diminishes, says Malveaux, and more jobs for minorities are eliminated.

Understanding the job marketplace and possessing the skills necessary to compete will be the definitive advantage. Those who possess these skills and knowledge may find that the job search is actually shorter than five years ago, some experts say. "We are finding that if people are flexible as far as industry, salary, position and are willing to relocate, they can find jobs in a timely manner, depending on the salary. More money takes more time," says C. David Jones, vice president and general manager for career management services at Personnel Decisions Inc., Meredith-Lincolnshire in Minneapolis. Smaller firms are successfully hiring senior staff from the ranks of middle managers downsized from larger firms, he says. Because of their experience, the former managers work with less supervision and greater efficiency.

You must be creative in your job search. "People have to prepare for periods of unemployment," says Challenger. In order to do that you have to develop a strategy and articulate it. Ask yourself how you can distinguish yourself from the competition. You must identify the areas that would be interested in you and determine how to penetrate that marketplace. You are really marketing a product, and once in the door, you add value by contributing more to the company. It will be tough, but your hard work will eventually pay off. Employment opportunities may be bleak, but people are still hiring. Malveaux advises: "Maintain your integrity preparing for the job you want, while realizing what kind of job you may have to take in the short run."

SNAPSHOT OF WORKPLACE 2000

Employees of the future will have to be quick-change artists to keep pace with the evolving workplace. These are some of the turnabouts to expect.

Short-lived assignments will be common. Expect to work on a contract basis or spend time on several project teams, says Price Pritchett in his book, New Work Habits for a Radically Changing World. (Pritchett & Associates; $5.95) "You might end up working for more than one `employer' at a time. You'll probably have a constantly new set of co-workers, more bosses, even new careers."

Workers will have at least three careers in their lifetime. Experts predict that people will turn over their skills, on average, three times. For example, a marketing manager may go into consulting and later go into academics and teach marketing. The career tracks of others may be more diverse as people continue to learn new skills and acquire different degrees.

Thirty-hour workweeks. Economics and author Jeremy Rifkin says that the age of technology is making us more productive. In his book, The End of Work, (G. P. Putnam's Sons; $24.95) Rifkin says that companies will have to shorten the workweek to provide work for all those individuals out of work. In 1993, Germany's Volkswagen adopted a 30-hour workweek, and the French government has proposed a four-day workweek as well.

Nonprofits: the next career frontier. Corporations and government are going to play an ever-reduced role in terms of jobs. "If the non-profit sector was an industry, it would be the seventh largest," says Rifkin. Over one million to date and growing, "it is the glue that keeps the county together." By building strong, self-sustaining local communities, jobs will be created for those displaced in the other sectors.

Flexible schedules, telecommuting and virtual offices. Today, managers are running departments from their home computers or holding meetings on the Internet or over a cellular phone. People are going online to apply for jobs and earn college degrees. Companies save money in reduced office space. Working at a desk from 9 to 5 will be history for some workers as offices become as close as a computer and modem.