Curse of the Great British Summer; As the region is lashed by driving wind and rain, Peter Elson asks: What happened to our promised heatwave?

Byline: Peter Elson

THE promise of blue skies and bright sun has been replaced by blue moods and blownout brollies as the barbecue summer fizzles into a season of PacA-Macs.

In typical British form, it all started so well.

By June, with temperatures soaring into the 30s, the perspiring population was complaining it was too hot and agreed we'd appreciate some cooler weather.

As they say, be careful what you wish for, because after a baking early July, we've got the drop in temperatures - and thunderstorms, gales and lashing rain.

Speaking as someone who delayed getting out of my car in central Liverpool by 15 minutes yesterday morning as hail stones the size of golf balls pelted down, it feels as if we're plunging back into the bleak mid-winter.

Back in April, the Met Office issued a seasonal forecast that sparked hopes for a warm and sunny summer, claiming the UK was "odds-on for a barbecue summer".

They said temperatures were likely to soar above 30[bar]C and rainfall near or below average for the three months of summer.

In a final flourish, the forecasters predicted that a repeat of the wet summers of 2007 and 2008 is unlikely.

But, in an update yesterday, it admitted the situation was rather wetter (as we amateurs noted), prompting questions over the usefulness and accuracy of longterm forecasting.

In its defence, however, the Met Office pointed out the odds it gave were 2-to-1 and that "for the rest of summer, rainfall is likely to be near or above average over the UK and northern Europe".

Forecasters warned of the pitfalls of predicting the weather a long way in advance, after that afore-mentioned heatwave in June failed to last.

Ewen McCallum, the Met Office's chief meteorologist, says: "After two disappointingly wet summers, the signs are much more promising this year.

"We can expect times when temperatures will be above 30[bar]C, something we hardly saw at all last year. We should be seeing some good hot spells and perhaps get the old barbecue out."

Hmm. "Perhaps getting the old barbecue out" is not the same as odds-on for a "barbecue summer".

To be fair, the Met Office wanted to indicate that any seasonal forecast, which this was, is always going to be couched in statistical probabilities.

The weather boffins estimated there was only a "65%" chance of them being correct (or a 35% chance of being wrong).

Yet we should remember that Wimbledon suffered hardly any rain, with the Centre Court's new retractable roof barely used.

Glastonbury and the Ashes fared well weather-wise, too.

Such a long-term "seasonal" forecasting is a relatively new science and - unlike the weather - is improving.

Back in the 1960s, a one-day forecast was as accurate as a four-day one now. The other great fundamental that doesn't change is the location of the British Isles - our position in the far eastern Atlantic shores, which dictates a temperate, maritime climate of changeable winds.

Forecaster Tom Tobler, of MeteoGroup (the Press Association's weather division), admits it is difficult to forecast more than two weeks ahead: "The further you go into that period, the more uncertain it is. We are usually confident about the general weather system for a number of days," he says.

Meantime, today in Merseyside and Cheshire will be generally cloudy with limited brightness and only weak hazy sunshine.

A few drizzly outbreaks are possible at times over the hills. There will be a freshening southerly breeze, with a maximum temperature of 19C. In the Lake District National Park, there will be sunny intervals and scattered showers, turning heavy for a time with the risk of thunderstorms.

You have been warned - but have we been accurately warned?

WEATHER: PAGE 2; THOUGHT FOR THE DAY: PAGE 9 [e-mail]

When weather forecasts go wrong ...

MET forecasters have made a habit of looking on the bright side when it comes to summer weather.

The Met Office originally predicted that last year''s summer - which featured strong winds, little sunshine and heavy rain - would be warmer than average, with rainfall near or slightly above average. It became one of the wettest summers on record.

In 2007, the Met Office said the summer would be warmer than normal, giving no indication of the deluge to come. In fact, temperatures were below average and heavy rain and floods ensured it was the wettest summer for England and Wales since 1912, with thousands left homeless by floods in much of Yorkshire, the Midlands and the West Country.

And they're not just overoptimistic during the summer months. Michael Fish never lived down his prediction for October, 1987, when the Great Storm battered Britain.

During the day, he had reassured viewers a hurricane was not on the way.

He said during the evening weather broadcast: "Earlier on today, apparently a lady rang the BBC and said she heard that there was a hurricane on the way. Well, don't worry if you're watching, there isn't."

CAPTION(S):

Michael Fish making his infamous 1987 forecast Holiday makers brave the rain and strong winds on Scarborough beach Battling against the strong winds and dark skies on Crosby beach Code: grj300709weather- The waterlogged pitch at Old Trafford Cricket Ground, Manche ester Braving the Great British summer... one of the Antony Gormley statues, armed with a broll ly on the sands, in Crosby