Current rental housing market. (Industry Forecast & Update).
CURRENT RENTAL HOUSING MARKET
Economic - Demographic Indicator
Year
Unit of Measure Ago
Rental Vacancy Rates
Apartments percent 8.9
All Rental Units percent 7.8
New Unfurnished Rental
Apartments
Units Completed thousands 56.7
Absorption Rates
3 months percent 75
6 months percent 89
9 months percent 96
12 months percent 99
Median Rents-New Units $'s $876
Median Asking Rent - All
For Rent Units $'s $486
New Condominium/
Cooperative Apartments
Units Completed thousands 8.4
Absortion Rates
3 months percent 83
6 months percent 87
9 months percent 83
12 months percent 84
Median Asking Price $'s $140,100
Total Households thousands 106754
Rental Households thousands 34587
% Total Households percent 32.5
Multifalmily New
Construction
Number of Units Started thousands 1 330
Apartment Units Started thousands 1 290
Value of Work Put-in-Place billions of $'s 1 24.37
Rental Property Maintenance,
Repairs, & Improvements 2 millions of $'s 14072
Price Indexes 3
Consumer Prices 1982-84 = 100 175.1
Rents 1982-84 = 100 188.2
Producer Prices Finished
Goods 1982 = 100 146.2
Materials & Components
for Construction 1982 = 100 149.7
Gypsum Building Materials 1982 = 100 124.6
Cement 1982 = 100 149.7
Softwood Lumber 1982 = 100 160.6
Softwood Plywood 1982 = 100 126.7
Economic Activity
GDP billions of 1996 $'s 9303.9
billions of current $'s 10141.7 10224.9
Per Capita Disposable
Income current $'s 26136
1996 Dollars 24096
Index of Leading Economic
Indicators 1992 = 100 108.8
Consumer Confidence Index 1985 = 100 115.7
Non-Farm Business
Productivity (5) Annualized % growth 2.3
Manufacturing
Productivity (5) Annualized % growth 2.8
Employment
Household Basis (1) thousands 135870
Establishment Basis (1) thousands 132428
Unemployment Rate (1) percent 4.2
Construction Workers (1) percent 6.7
Employment Cost Index Annualized % change 4.1
Compensation Cost Index
Construction Annualized % change 5.8
Interest Rates
Moody's Aaa corporate
Bonds percent 7.10
3 Month T Bills percent 5.15
1 Year Treasuries percent 4.85
10 Year Treasuries percent 5.10
30 Year Treasuries percent 5.54
Yield Curve (6) percent 25
Current
Previous Reporting
Period No. Period
Rental Vacancy Rates
Apartments 9.6 10.0 Q4 01
All Rental Units 8.4 8.8 Q4 01
New Unfurnished Rental
Apartments
Units Completed 42.9 46.3 Q2 01
Absorption Rates
3 months 64 67 Q3 01
6 months 81 86 Q3 01
9 months 93 93 Q3 01
12 months 97 97 Q3 01
Median Rents-New Units $889 $874 Q3 01
Median Asking Rent - All
For Rent Units $525 $535 Q4 01
New Condominium/
Cooperative Apartments
Units Completed 11.1 10.6 Q2.01
Absortion Rates
3 months 74 71 Q3 01
6 months 88 90 Q3 01
9 months 87 92 Q3 01
12 months 84 91 Q3 01
Median Asking Price $157,300 $190,700 Q3 01
Total Households 107669 107798 Dec.
Rental Households 34073 34418 Q4 01
% Total Households 31.9 32.0 Q4 01
Multifalmily New
Construction
Number of Units Started 280 333 Jan.
Apartment Units Started 265 287 Jan.
Value of Work Put-in-Place 26.32 27.66 Dec.
Rental Property Maintenance,
Repairs, & Improvements 2 12818 12365 Q3 01
Price Indexes 3
Consumer Prices 176.7 177.1 Jan.
Rents 196.4 197.0 Jan.
Producer Prices Finished
Goods 137.2 137.5 Jan.
Materials & Components
for Construction 150.4 150.3 Jan.
Gypsum Building Materials 135.5 130.9 Jan.
Cement 150.8 150.4 Jan.
Softwood Lumber 163.9 171.4 Jan.
Softwood Plywood 128.9 128.1 Jan.
Economic Activity
GDP 9310.4 9315.6 Q4 01
billions of current $'s 10221.6 Q4 01
Per Capita Disposable
Income 25872 25927 Dec.
23567 23653 Dec.
Index of Leading Economic
Indicators 111.5 112.2 Jan.
Consumer Confidence Index 94.1 96.9 Jan.
Non-Farm Business
Productivity (5) 1.1 3.5 Q4 01
Manufacturing
Productivity (5) 4.5 4.3 Q4 01
Employment
Household Basis (1) 134055 133468 Jan.
Establishment Basis (1) 131297 131208 Jan.
Unemployment Rate (1) 5.8 5.6 Jan.
Construction Workers (1) 8.9 9.4 Jan.
Employment Cost Index 4.1 4.1 Q4 01
Compensation Cost Index
Construction 4.5 4.3 Q4 01
Interest Rates
Moody's Aaa corporate
Bonds 6.77 6.55 Jan.
3 Month T Bills 1.69 1.85 Jan.
1 Year Treasuries 2.22 2.16 Jan.
10 Year Treasuries 5.09 5.04 Jan.
30 Year Treasuries 5.48 5.45 Jan.
Yield Curve (6) 287 288 Jan.
Year Previous
Ago Period
Rental Vacancy Rates
Apartments 1.1 0.4
All Rental Units 1.0 0.4
New Unfurnished Rental
Apartments
Units Completed -10.4 3.4
Absorption Rates
3 months -8 3
6 months -3 5
9 months -3 0
12 months -2 0
Median Rents-New Units -0.2% -1.7%
Median Asking Rent - All
For Rent Units 10.1% 1.9%
New Condominium/
Cooperative Apartments
Units Completed 2.2 -0.5
Absortion Rates
3 months -12 -3
6 months 3 2
9 months 9 5
12 months 7 7
Median Asking Price 36.1% 21.2%
Total Households 1044 129
Rental Households -169 345
% Total Households -0.5 0.1
Multifalmily New
Construction
Number of Units Started 3 53
Apartment Units Started -3 22
Value of Work Put-in-Place 13.5% 5.1%
Rental Property Maintenance,
Repairs, & Improvements 2 -12.1% -3.5%
Price Indexes 3
Consumer Prices 1.1% 2.8% (4)
Rents 4.7% 3.7 (4)
Producer Prices Finished
Goods -6.0% 2.7% (4)
Materials & Components
for Construction 0.4% -0.8% (4)
Gypsum Building Materials 5.1% -33.9% (4)
Cement 0.5% -3.1% (4)
Softwood Lumber 6.7% 71.1% (4)
Softwood Plywood 1.1% -7.2% (4)
Economic Activity
GDP 0.1% 0.2% (4)
billions of current $'s 0.8% -0.1% (4)
Per Capita Disposable
Income -0.8% 2.6% (4)
-1.8% 4.5% (4)
Index of Leading Economic
Indicators 3.4 0.7
Consumer Confidence Index -18.8 2.8
Non-Farm Business
Productivity (5) 1.2 2.4
Manufacturing
Productivity (5) 1.5 -0.2
Employment
Household Basis (1) -2402 -587
Establishment Basis (1) -1220 -89
Unemployment Rate (1) 1.4 -0.2
Construction Workers (1) 2.7 0.5
Employment Cost Index 0.0 0.0
Compensation Cost Index
Construction -1.5 -0.2
Interest Rates
Moody's Aaa corporate
Bonds -55 bp -22 bp
3 Month T Bills -330 bp 16 bp
1 Year Treasuries -269 bp -6 bp
10 Year Treasuries -6 bp -5 bp
30 Year Treasuries -9 bp -3 bp
Yield Curve (6)
1. Seasonally adjusted annual rates 2. Also includes all vacant and
seasonal properties 3. Not seasonally adjusted 4. At annual rates
5. Based on output per hour worked 6. Difference in yields between 10
year and 1 year Treasuries
Source: U.S. Department of Commerce & Labour, Conference Board, Regis
J Sheehan & Associates
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