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Current rental housing market. (Industry Forecast & Update).


CURRENT RENTAL HOUSING MARKET
Economic - Demographic Indicator

                                                      Year
                               Unit of Measure        Ago

Rental Vacancy Rates
  Apartments                   percent                       8.9
  All Rental Units             percent                       7.8

New Unfurnished Rental
  Apartments
Units Completed                thousands                    56.7
Absorption Rates
  3 months                     percent                      75
  6 months                     percent                      89
  9 months                     percent                      96
  12 months                    percent                      99
Median Rents-New Units         $'s                        $876

Median Asking Rent - All
  For Rent Units               $'s                        $486

New Condominium/
  Cooperative Apartments
Units Completed                thousands                     8.4
Absortion Rates
  3 months                     percent                      83
  6 months                     percent                      87
  9 months                     percent                      83
  12 months                    percent                      84
Median Asking Price            $'s                    $140,100

Total Households               thousands                106754
  Rental Households            thousands                 34587
  % Total Households           percent                      32.5

Multifalmily New
  Construction
Number of Units Started        thousands 1                 330
Apartment Units Started        thousands 1                 290
Value of Work Put-in-Place     billions of $'s 1            24.37

Rental Property Maintenance,
Repairs, & Improvements 2      millions of $'s           14072

Price Indexes 3
  Consumer Prices              1982-84 = 100               175.1
  Rents                        1982-84 = 100               188.2
  Producer Prices Finished
    Goods                      1982 = 100                  146.2
  Materials & Components
    for Construction           1982 = 100                  149.7
  Gypsum Building Materials    1982 = 100                  124.6
  Cement                       1982 = 100                  149.7
  Softwood Lumber              1982 = 100                  160.6
  Softwood Plywood             1982 = 100                  126.7

  Economic Activity
  GDP                          billions of 1996 $'s       9303.9
  billions of current $'s      10141.7                   10224.9
  Per Capita Disposable
    Income                     current $'s               26136
                               1996 Dollars              24096
  Index of Leading Economic
    Indicators                 1992 = 100                  108.8
  Consumer Confidence Index    1985 = 100                  115.7
  Non-Farm Business
    Productivity (5)           Annualized % growth           2.3
  Manufacturing
    Productivity (5)           Annualized % growth           2.8

Employment
  Household Basis (1)          thousands                135870
  Establishment Basis (1)      thousands                132428
  Unemployment Rate (1)        percent                       4.2
  Construction Workers (1)     percent                       6.7
  Employment Cost Index        Annualized % change           4.1
  Compensation Cost Index
    Construction               Annualized % change           5.8

Interest Rates
  Moody's Aaa corporate
    Bonds                      percent                       7.10
  3 Month T Bills              percent                       5.15
  1 Year Treasuries            percent                       4.85
  10 Year Treasuries           percent                       5.10
  30 Year Treasuries           percent                       5.54
  Yield Curve (6)              percent                      25

                                                            Current

                                Previous                    Reporting
                                 Period      No.            Period

Rental Vacancy Rates
  Apartments                          9.6          10.0     Q4 01
  All Rental Units                    8.4           8.8     Q4 01

New Unfurnished Rental
  Apartments
Units Completed                      42.9          46.3     Q2 01
Absorption Rates
  3 months                           64            67       Q3 01
  6 months                           81            86       Q3 01
  9 months                           93            93       Q3 01
  12 months                          97            97       Q3 01
Median Rents-New Units             $889          $874       Q3 01

Median Asking Rent - All
  For Rent Units                   $525          $535       Q4 01

New Condominium/
  Cooperative Apartments
Units Completed                      11.1          10.6     Q2.01
Absortion Rates
  3 months                           74            71       Q3 01
  6 months                           88            90       Q3 01
  9 months                           87            92       Q3 01
  12 months                          84            91       Q3 01
Median Asking Price            $157,300      $190,700       Q3 01

Total Households                 107669        107798       Dec.
  Rental Households               34073         34418       Q4 01
  % Total Households                 31.9          32.0     Q4 01

Multifalmily New
  Construction
Number of Units Started             280           333       Jan.
Apartment Units Started             265           287       Jan.
Value of Work Put-in-Place           26.32         27.66    Dec.

Rental Property Maintenance,
Repairs, & Improvements 2         12818         12365       Q3 01

Price Indexes 3
  Consumer Prices                   176.7          177.1    Jan.
  Rents                             196.4          197.0    Jan.
  Producer Prices Finished
    Goods                           137.2          137.5    Jan.
  Materials & Components
    for Construction                150.4          150.3    Jan.
  Gypsum Building Materials         135.5          130.9    Jan.
  Cement                            150.8          150.4    Jan.
  Softwood Lumber                   163.9          171.4    Jan.
  Softwood Plywood                  128.9          128.1    Jan.

  Economic Activity
  GDP                              9310.4         9315.6    Q4 01
  billions of current $'s         10221.6           Q4 01
  Per Capita Disposable
    Income                        25872          25927      Dec.
                                  23567          23653      Dec.
  Index of Leading Economic
    Indicators                      111.5          112.2    Jan.
  Consumer Confidence Index          94.1           96.9    Jan.
  Non-Farm Business
    Productivity (5)                  1.1            3.5    Q4 01
  Manufacturing
    Productivity (5)                  4.5            4.3    Q4 01

Employment
  Household Basis (1)            134055         133468      Jan.
  Establishment Basis (1)        131297         131208      Jan.
  Unemployment Rate (1)               5.8            5.6    Jan.
  Construction Workers (1)            8.9            9.4    Jan.
  Employment Cost Index               4.1            4.1    Q4 01
  Compensation Cost Index
    Construction                      4.5            4.3    Q4 01

Interest Rates
  Moody's Aaa corporate
    Bonds                             6.77           6.55   Jan.
  3 Month T Bills                     1.69           1.85   Jan.
  1 Year Treasuries                   2.22           2.16   Jan.
  10 Year Treasuries                  5.09           5.04   Jan.
  30 Year Treasuries                  5.48           5.45   Jan.
  Yield Curve (6)                   287            288      Jan.

                               Year       Previous
                               Ago        Period

Rental Vacancy Rates
  Apartments                       1.1       0.4
  All Rental Units                 1.0       0.4

New Unfurnished Rental
  Apartments
Units Completed                  -10.4       3.4
Absorption Rates
  3 months                        -8         3
  6 months                        -3         5
  9 months                        -3         0
  12 months                       -2         0
Median Rents-New Units            -0.2%     -1.7%

Median Asking Rent - All
  For Rent Units                  10.1%      1.9%

New Condominium/
  Cooperative Apartments
Units Completed                    2.2      -0.5
Absortion Rates
  3 months                       -12        -3
  6 months                         3         2
  9 months                         9         5
  12 months                        7         7
Median Asking Price               36.1%     21.2%

Total Households                1044       129
  Rental Households             -169       345
  % Total Households              -0.5       0.1

Multifalmily New
  Construction
Number of Units Started            3        53
Apartment Units Started           -3        22
Value of Work Put-in-Place        13.5%      5.1%

Rental Property Maintenance,
Repairs, & Improvements 2        -12.1%     -3.5%

Price Indexes 3
  Consumer Prices                  1.1%      2.8% (4)
  Rents                            4.7%      3.7 (4)
  Producer Prices Finished
    Goods                         -6.0%      2.7% (4)
  Materials & Components
    for Construction               0.4%     -0.8% (4)
  Gypsum Building Materials        5.1%    -33.9% (4)
  Cement                           0.5%     -3.1% (4)
  Softwood Lumber                  6.7%     71.1% (4)
  Softwood Plywood                 1.1%     -7.2% (4)

  Economic Activity
  GDP                              0.1%      0.2% (4)
  billions of current $'s          0.8%     -0.1% (4)
  Per Capita Disposable
    Income                        -0.8%      2.6% (4)
                                  -1.8%      4.5% (4)
  Index of Leading Economic
    Indicators                     3.4       0.7
  Consumer Confidence Index      -18.8       2.8
  Non-Farm Business
    Productivity (5)               1.2       2.4
  Manufacturing
    Productivity (5)               1.5      -0.2

Employment
  Household Basis (1)          -2402      -587
  Establishment Basis (1)      -1220       -89
  Unemployment Rate (1)            1.4      -0.2
  Construction Workers (1)         2.7       0.5
  Employment Cost Index            0.0       0.0
  Compensation Cost Index
    Construction                  -1.5      -0.2

Interest Rates
  Moody's Aaa corporate
    Bonds                        -55 bp    -22 bp
  3 Month T Bills               -330 bp     16 bp
  1 Year Treasuries             -269 bp     -6 bp
  10 Year Treasuries              -6 bp     -5 bp
  30 Year Treasuries              -9 bp     -3 bp
  Yield Curve (6)

1. Seasonally adjusted annual rates 2. Also includes all vacant and
seasonal properties 3. Not seasonally adjusted 4. At annual rates
5. Based on output per hour worked 6. Difference in yields between 10
year and 1 year Treasuries

Source: U.S. Department of Commerce & Labour, Conference Board, Regis
J Sheehan & Associates
COPYRIGHT 2002 National Apartment Association
No portion of this article can be reproduced without the express written permission from the copyright holder.
Copyright 2002, Gale Group. All rights reserved. Gale Group is a Thomson Corporation Company.

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Publication:Units
Date:Apr 1, 2002
Words:1147
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