Crisis is a way of life: Tom Nevin, writing from Johannesburg, says that reports of Zimbabwe's imminent collapse now appear to have been premature. The trend has now shifted to searching for ways to halt the inflation and return the economy to an even keel.

Events in Zimbabwe apparently barrel along at breakneck speed, but most seem illusionary when you try to put a finger on them. A check on newspaper accounts of developments in that country a year ago shows that nothing much has changed except for the inflation rate, and that's now reached a stage of meaningless telephone numbers.

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The headline in Johannesburg's Sunday Times newspaper on 8 July screamed "Zimbabwe Collapses". The papers were saying much of the same 12 months back, and a year before that. Still, you can't help being swept away in the hype and the prickly feeling persists that something's got to give. The question, however, is when? And will the country go with the bang of revolution or a whimper of submission?

If President Robert Mugabe is on the political way out, as watchers of Zimbabwe's current affairs and many in the media are suggesting, there's no overt political sign of it happening, and the fiery leader remains as truculent as ever.

Even with inflation nudging 5,000% (at the beginning of July), Mugabe wielded the big stick, accusing foreign companies and mining houses of economic sabotage and "dirty tricks" and threatening their nationalisation.

He told key private sector manufacturing and retail companies to "stop this nonsense" of price hikes or they would be taken over by the government. He also accused mining houses of extracting the country's minerals while externalising the foreign currency they earned.

A bill that would allow the whole-scale nationalisation of private companies by the government has been drafted and "refers to both public and private companies and, yes, this includes mining companies and banks, which will be impacted like everyone else", announced the minister of state for indigenisation and empowerment, Paul Mangwana.

The army, police and intelligence services were on alert to enforce compliance with the new edict, according to Obert Mpofu, minister of trade and industry.

Mugabe appeared on television to deliver the warning.

"We will nationalise all these companies if they continue to play dirty games," he announced. "We are following you. It's not going to be an easy game. It's going to be a rough one. We will never allow ourselves to be defeated by these British tactics." The Zimbabwe president claimed spiralling inflation was part of Western-backed economic sabotage aimed at toppling his government.

Some manufacturers withdrew their products from supermarket shelves while others halted production claiming they would not stay viable if they complied with the government's pricing demands. Under the edict a loaf of bread selling for Z$55,000 would be reduced to Z$22,000, a packet of sugar from Z$70,000 to Z$33,940 while a litre of petrol was to be cut from Z$180,000 to Z$60,000.

On 1 July, the US dollar, officially pegged at Z$250, was fetching Z$400,000 on the black market and the South African rand, set by the Reserve Bank at Z$39 was worth Z$40,000 on the streets.

The edict follows recent constitutional amendments that all but guarantee victory for the ruling Zanu-PF party at next year's elections. The amendments enable Mugabe to increase the number of constituencies in his rural strongholds allowing him to dominate parliament.

Time for bygones to be bygones

There are those, however, who believe that if President Mugabe can't be persuaded to vacate power through political strong-arming, he could be sweet-talked to do so in other ways. Amongst these is advocate George Bizos, famous in South African, Zimbabwean and international legal circles. Most notably Bizos defended Nelson Mandela at the liberation icon's treason trials in the 1960s and more recently appeared for Morgan Changirai when the Zimbabwe opposition leader was accused of plotting to overthrow the government of President Mugabe. Bizos believes that "there ought to come a stage when Zimbabweans of all political persuasion say 'let bygones be bygones' and look into the future and not back at the past". This attitude could allow Mugabe the granting of a comprehensive amnesty to pave the way for his departure from power and opening the door to resolution of the Zimbabwe crisis.

He told a Johannesburg seminar Zimbabwe at the Crossroads that such "reconciliation worked for South Africa and it can work for Zimbabwe". Bizos's proposal would presume that Mugabe is looking for the most comfortable way out but there seems little evidence that he has any intention of quitting. Recent speculation has also bubbled to the surface to the effect that Mugabe is considering retiring on guarantees that he would be left in peace.

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And what happened in Tripoli when representatives of Zimbabwe, UK and South Africa gathered to work out a retirement package for the Zimbabwe president and find a nice place for him to spend his golden years? Nothing, apparently. Nor has President Mbeki's latest quiet diplomatic shuffle produced much to talk about, but "it proceeds" nonetheless, according to a presidential spokesman.

And if you'd been a fly on the wall at the African Union summit in Accra in June, you'd have witnessed no sign of a man desperately defending the last of his battlements. All media accounts reflect much back-slapping and bonhomie as Mugabe was feted as an African hero. Zimbabwe wasn't even on the agenda. This was business as usual at its most profound and much political attention was focused on the formation or otherwise of a United States of Africa.

Still, you have to assume that the editors of the big news organisations are keeping an eye on the flow of news from Zimbabwe, awaiting the opportunity of saying "We told you so!"

RELATED ARTICLE: Inflation

The value of early deposits

With Zimbabwe's inflation rate pushing 5,000% and the value of its currency nose-diving, the following examples of value loss are rather intriguing. "If you had purchased Z$1million of Time Bank stock a year ago, it would be worth Z$49 now," reports Johannesburg's Business Day newspaper. "With ENG you would have Z$16.50 of the original Z$1m left. If you had invested in Kondozi Farm you would be left with Z$5 today. But if you had bought Z$1m worth of beer a year ago and drunk it, you would stand to pocket a cool Z$140m by just returning the empties now and cashing in on the deposit."