Crisis in Africa.

The Assembly, in its resolution 38/199 adopted on 20 December 1983, has called for special measures for concerted international action and "substantial and sustained levels of resources" to promote the accelerated development of African countries.

It acted against a backdrop of an increasing awareness of the crises affecting that region, an awareness heightened most recently by:

--the Secretary-General's December appeal for aid;

--the convening of two special meetings in January to discuss the situation;

--his trip to eight West African nations in January/February;

--the convening of a third special meeting with interested States to report on the trip and preliminary steps taken.

Africa, the Assembly pointed out, contains three quarters of the countries designated as "least developed" and 50 per cent of the world's land-locked nations. There vulnerable States suffer particularly from the effects of the crises, which touch all sectors of the economy--especially food production and agriculture, the backbone of these primarily rural societies.

Drought has swept through the savannas, deserts and coastlines of all parts of Africa. Food shortages are rampant throughout at least half of all African countries, affecting millions of Africans. Hundreds of thousands of cattle have died from lack of feed and epidemics of cattle plague. Rivers and streams have vanished and wells have dried up. At least 150 million persons are faced with starvation in the 24 most seriously affected countries: Angola, Benin, Botswana, Cape Verde, Central African Republic, Chad, Ethiopia, Gambia, Ghana, Guinea, Guinea-Bissau, Lesotho, Mali, Mauritania, Mozambique, Sao Tome and Principe, Senegal, Somalia, Swaziland, Togo, United Republic of Tanzania, Upper Volta, Zambia and Zimbabwe.

Problems of individual countries, such as those visited by the Secretary-General during his tour of West Africa in January, provide specific examples of the hardships faced. Benin and Mali must deal with potential infestations of millions of cattle by the deadly "rinderpest" cattle plague.

Senegal needs extensive aid to recover from the seven-year drought it has endured. Abnormally long harmattan winds in Togo damaged cereal and root crops in 1982 and caused severe food shortages in many areas there.

On 19 January 1984, the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) warned that the food supply outlook for Africa in 1984 remained serious. In a continuing downward spiral, cereal production dropped 1.4 million tons in 1983 from the 1982 level in the 24 most severely affected countries. Import requirements for these nations were currently estimated at 5.3 million, of which 3.4 million tons must come through food aid. Pledges so far totalled only 1.75 million tons.

Augmenting the crisis is the "drought in multilateral assistance", as the Secretary-General pointed out on his West African tour. Contributions to multilateral programmes have not kept up with needs. Funding levels for such bodies as the International Development Association (IDA) and the International Fund for Agricultural Development (IFAD) have fallen short of targets, and programmes have been cut back. World Bank President A.W. Clausen said one result would be "gravely inadequate" assistance available for sub-Saharan Africa.

The United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) regional programme for Africa, planned at a level of $283.4 million for the period 1982-86, now stands at $137.2 million. The Economic Commission for Africa (ECA) has reported "a severe tightening of the purse" by "traditionally friendly" donor countries. A continuing declining trend in overall official development assistance (ODA) to least developed countries in Africa has also been noted, and aid-tying practices continue to hamper efficient use of resources.

General Assembly President Jorge Illueca has warned that if these conditions continue to prevail, "the social repercussions of the economic crisis may drag many (of the affected countries) into incalculable political disasters which would ultimately affect international peace and security".

Olara Otunnu, Chairman of the 1984 Human Rights Commission, at the session's opening in February, said the African continent was experiencing "a wave of social unrest directly related to the problem of food", and many countries were "locked into a cycle of poverty, instability and underdevelopment". He asked: "What is the meaning of human rights for those who do not have access to adequate food, shelter or health care?"

The Third International Development Strategy for the 1980s has given priority to agricultural and rural development and the eradication of hunger and malnutrition. But the slow rise in agricultural production has not kept up with the population growth in Africa, and efforts to improve agricultural output and distribution have been thwarted by economic imbalances worldwide.

In many African countries, all these problems add up to hunger and starvation. United Nations bodies, at the behest of the General Assembly, are trying to respond to the urgent needs of the continent. Special Appeals

On 21 December, Secretary-General Javier Perez de Cuellar launched an appeal for increased international support for Africa. He chaired two special meetings in January for representative of African States and for donor and potential donor countries, detailing major concerns and reiterating his appeal for aid.

From 17 January through 4 February, he traveled to eight nations in West Africa, viewing firsthand the effects of widespread drought, food shortages, livestock epidemics and dwindling resources (see UN Chronicle, 1984 No. 2).

His chief economic aide, Jean Ripert, Director-General of the Department of International Economic and Social Affairs, undertook a five-city trip in late January (Washington, D.C., Paris, Brussels, London, Rome) to follow up Mr. Perez de Cuellar's trip.

The Secretary-General indicated that the international community has been responsive to his appeal for aid, with a number of countries making substantial amounts of food aid the agricultural assistance available.

On his return from West Africa, Mr. Perez de Cuellar said the "dimensions of the human tragedy involved in the current economic situation became all the more poignant and vivid" during his trip. He had been impressed, he said, by the efforts of the countries to deal with the crisis situations confronting them and by efforts being made to assist them. "But most of all", he said, "I was impressed by the need to do more if we are to avoid the erosion of the economic and human resources of a continent."

He also met with African ambassadors, who informed him that they had formed a Committe (Tunisia, Togo, Rwanda, Ethiopia, Swaziland, Sudan and the Organization of African Unity (OAU) to follow up on implementation of his policies with regard to Africa. The Committee's main aim was to co-ordinate the approach of the African Group to the African relief issue.

On 16 February, the Secretary-General convened a third special meeting at Headquarters with all interested States to report firsthand on what he had seen on his trip, what the basic requirements for international aid might be, and what preliminary steps he had taken towards improving the situation.

He stressed the need to implement immediate measures to prevent further loss of human life, as well as steps to "redress the conditions which gave rise to the current crisis".

"The economic survival of many countries in Africa is now at stake. Unless the international community responds urgently and adequately, the consequences for Africa would be very serious. But the consequences would be equally serious for the world as a whole. I would therefore appeal most fervently to the entire international community to do all it can to avert disaster. This is not a question of altruism, but a necessity of global interdependence", he said.

A special inter-agency meeting on the economic and social crisis in Africa, chaired by Secretary-General Javier Perez de Cuellar, was held at United Nations Headquarters on 20 March.

The participants--officials of 17 United Nations systems agencies and other bodies--agreed to co-operate in a pragmatic manner and stressed the need for improved co-ordination at the country level.

The Secretary-General reported he was instructing United Nations Resident Co-ordinators to consult with host Governments and bilateral and multilateral representatives, as well as representatives of non-governmental organizations, on ways and means of improving such co-ordination. In addition to identifying, confirming or updating immediate needs of countries, they would consider gaps in national resources and external assistance in relation to those needs.

There was a consensus that the Secretary-General would continue his efforts to mobilize additional resources, with emphasis on funds for ongoing activities. Structural Problems

The Secretary-General's 16 February statement provided vivid word pictures of the problems of the region, involving nutrition, health, water supply, refugees, transportation and communication (see accompanying picture/caption pages).

But they could not be separated, he said, from the more long-term structural problems, internal and external, confronting the countries of Africa. "It is necessary to deal effectively not only with the symptoms of the current crisis but also its causes."

Adequate external financing had to be provided, with greater concessionality and flexibility. Adjustment policies, encouraged or required as a basis for international support, should combine consideration of financial equilibrium with measures to protect the poor and vulnerable and to regain momentum towards development. Commodity prices, export earnings, foreign debt, energy costs and availability, development of human resources and the local processing of raw materials needed consideration.

He stressed the following points:

* For the low income countries of Africa, average per capita income is less than it was 15 years ago. This results from stagnant economic growth and high population growth.

* Only one in four Africans has access to safe drinking water. Infant mortality rates are among the highest in the world: 5 million of the 7 million infant deaths in the world each year occur in Africa. About one half of the African labour force is unemployed or underemployed. Over 50 per cent of the urban population live in slums or squatter housing.

* The terms of trade of African developing countries declined by more than 50 per cent between 1977 and 1981. The annual loss of external resources because of that deterioration is equivalent to their total annual aid receipts.

* The fall in commodity prices has been particularly devastating in Africa. For example, coffee, Africa's leading export, now buys less than half of the imports it did in 1976.

* Total ODA from members of the development Assistance Committe (DAC) of the Organization of Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD), multilateral organizations and Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) to Africa has been declining since 1980.

* Debt service obligations of sub-Saharan African countries rose by 25 per cent in 1982 and were projected to increase by 60 per cent in 1983. Last year, 15 countries had to reschedule formally their foreign debts. The World Bank estimates that the ratio of debt service to export earnings for low income African countries increased from 8.8 per cent in 1980 to 28.3 per cent in 1982. Donor Reaction

The Secretary-General said that the donor community, while indicating their appreciation of the gravity of the situation and their genuine concern, had emphasized the need to efficiently use existing resources, since there was general budgetary constraint on development assistance programmes. Appropriate domestic policies should be adopted and co-ordination of donor support improved. Long-term development issues had to be addressed.

He noted African concern regarding the strain on administrative capacities placed by the "proliferation of missions by donor countries and United Nations entities". Donor countries had stressed the need for an effective focal point for development assistance efforts at the national level. Also, meeting the requirements for adequate domestic and external resources must not be delayed.

The Secretary-General stressed he was not proposing new programmes or new activities, but rather increased support for existing activities.

"The solution of the economic and social crises in Africa is fundamentally the responsibility of the African Governments themselves", the Secretary-General said. The Lagos Plan of Action and the Final Act of Lagos provide the framework for such national action (see separate story). However, the international community has a clear responsibility to support these efforts, he concluded. FAO Viewpoint

Since 1980, the General Assembly has adopted resolutions on the food situation in Africa, and in 1983 it supported the urgent appeal launched by FAO to help the African countries threatened by food shortages. It urged the international community to provide the estimated 3.2 million tons required in food aid, 700,000 tons of which were needed on an emergency basis.

Edouard Saouma, Director-General of the FAO, told the 16 February meeting he was glad the African food crisis had been recognized as "one of the most urgent, most compelling" situations of global alarm.

While drought had precipitated much of the current situation, "the roots of the calamity that confronts us", he said, "lies much deeper". They were to be found, he said, "in the desperate battles now being fought by African nations to build up effective modern States: battles against the problems they have inherited and against those which have been thrust upon them by the outside world. In this struggle, agriculture is not doing well."

The FAO's Global Information and Early Warning System on Food and Agriculture in February 1982 had issued a special alert on conditions in southern Africa, normally a food surplus area, suffering from its third year of drought.

Also, satellite photos of Africa showed that the "green line" of vegetation in 1983, as compared to the previous year, had descended by 150 to 200 kilometres southward over the whole of the African Sahel region, where there had been continued rain failures.

Warning signs in other parts of Africa included a major pest infestation in the cassava belt, a rinderpest epidemic and, in West Africa, extensive bush fires.

In April 1983, an FAO/WFP Task Force on Africa had been set up to assess the situation in affected countries and follow developments. Mr. Saouma said their findings had resulted in the special appeals for international assistance, which had begun with his on 3 May.

The affected countries ranged geographically from Cape Verde in the west to Somalia in the east, from Ethiopia in the north to Lesotho in the south. The "danger period", he said, was the so-called "lean season", when last year's crop had been eaten and the new harvest was not yet in.

In some areas, by saving the livestock, by providing feed, the people could also be saved, he said. "Nomadic populations depend on their herds both for their economic survival and in large part for their nutrition", he said.

Mr. Saouma cited four "superimposed crises" which heightened Africa's problems.

A technical crisis had resulted from the difficult nature of farming in Africa, with fragile, easily eroded soils, less reliable rainfall and nearly non-existent irrigation (covering only 2 per cent of the arable land).

A development crisis stemmed from the highest population growth in the world, rapid urbanization, scarce fuelwood and continuing desertification.

The economic crisis was exemplified by the fact that in 1982, Africa could purchase from its agricultural exports only half the volume of manufactured goods and petroleum products it could have bought in 1978.

Finally, he said, the political crisis--"a major feature of contemporary Africa"--had inflicted severe food shortages on at least five countries: Angola, Chad, Ethiopia, Mozambique and Somalia--which had been at least partially disrupted by military operations, refugees or major problems of insecurity. Tensions emanating from South Africa had had a serious impact in all front-line States, he said.

Agricultural rehabilitation should be a major priority, he concluded, adding that international aid was no substitute for realistic policies favouring agricultural development "Africa has the land, it has the people", he said. "The only thing it does not have is time." 'Alarming Outlook'

The FAO has reported that the food situation in Africa in 1982/83 "deteriorated sharply", causing shortages in many areas, and the outlook for 1983/84 was "even more alarming". For Africa as a whole, per capita food production had fallen throughout the 1970s. While production increased by 1.8 per cent a year, population was growing at a rate of 2.8 per cent. By 1980, food production per person was actually 11 per cent lower than in 1969/71.

"Even before the present food shortages", the FAO reports, "the average person in Africa had considerably less access to food than 10 years ago and average dietary standards were below nutritional requirements."

The World Food Programme (WFP) and other United Nations agencies were providing aid to these and other African countries suffering from the widespread shortages and other crises.

Balance-of-payments problems and the increase in world market prices for cereals made it virtually impossible for affected countries to cover their growing food deficits by commercial imports. Africa was the only region in the world, according to the 1983 World Economic Survey, where food exports declined during the period 1971-1987, while its imports continued to grow. A static situation regarding food aid pledges and delays in the arrival of pledged food aid added to the difficulties.

"The fall in the demand for non-agricultural primary commodities aggravated the balance-of-payments problems of the developing economies in particular, and many countries were forced to restrain imports of food and related products", the Survey stated.

Trade in agricultural products had suffered from the protectionist pressures resulting from the recession, the Survey noted. Traditional exporters had threatened to retaliate if agricultural subsidies in many industrial countries were not corrected soon. "The consequences for stability in world markets are potentially very serious", the Survey stated.

In Africa, the Survey specified, per capita output of food and agriculture stabilized after the 1982 decline, but the situation remained critical. It suffested a continuing need, even in a time of overall global balance, for an emergency food reserve and substantial food aid.

African experts, reporting that the African economy grew by only 0.2 per cent during 1983, predicted that it could expand by 3 per cent in 1984 if three conditions were met: better weather, increased demand for exports and a continuation of policies which firmed up exchange rates, lowered inflation and boosted investment. If not, agricultural production, exports and per capita incomes would continue to drop. United Nations Action

A number of United Nations organizations are supporting ongoing or individual projects in Africa, including the FAO, IFAD, WFP, The World Food Council (WFC), UNDP, the World Health Organization (WHO), the United Nations Children's Fund (UNICEF), the international Labour Organisation (ILO), the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) and others. The following organizations are most concerned with food and agriculture:

FAO was the first United Nations specialized agency founded after World War II, on 16 October 1945. Since then, it has worked in a variety of areas to improve food production and distribution, nutrition standards, and alleviate hunger. FAO's 1982-83 biennial budget was $366 million.

WFP was established in 1963, a joint undertaking of the United Nations and the FAO. It seeks to stimulate economic and social development through aid in the form of food and helps meet emergency food needs created by earthquakes, floods, and other disasters. In October, its pledges nearly reached the billion-dollar mark.

On 6 March, 52 countries participated in the eleventh Pledging Conference for the World Food Programme (WFP), pledging $658.3 million--49 per cent of its target of $1.35 billion for the 1985-1986 biennium. Also, donors pledged some 475,000 tons of food grains, representing an additional $112 million, for the International Emergency Food Reserve.

The Programme provides food and agricultural assistance in more than 125 countries throughout the world. Canada was the single largest donor, pledging $229.8 million, followed by Australia, $101.8 million; Sweden, $41 million; Denmark, $34 million; Federal Republic of Germany, $31.8 million; Norway, $31.2 million; Japan, $21 million; and Finland, $19.6 million. Some countries and the European Economic Community indicated intentions to pledge substantial amounts at a future time.

The United Nations convened the World Food Conference in 1974 in Rome, in response to a call from the Non-Aligned countries for a special convocation to deal with global food problems. Its recommendations resulted in the establishment of a number of bodies, including the WFC, which reviews major problems and policy issues affecting the world food situation and develops an integrated approach to their solution. The Conference also adopted the Universal Declaration on the Eradication of Hunger and Malnutrition.

In 1976, the FAO established the Committee on World Food Security, also on the recommendation of the World Food Conference, to monitor current and prospective food-stocks and assist Governments in developing food security arrangements. IFAD, the newest United Nations specialized agency, was established in 1977 to provide grants and low-interest loans to improve agriculture in developing countries. Priority was given to food deficit countries and to assistance to the poorest farmers, many of whom are landless.

In 1979, the World Conference on Agrarian Reform and Rural Development adopted a Declaration of Principles and Programme of Action.

The General Assembly has repeatedly endorsed the 1980 Lagos Plan of Action to implement the 1979 Monrovia Strategy for the Economic Development of Africa, adopted by the Organization of African Unity Heads of State and Government.

In 1982, the African Ministers for food and Agriculture, at the 12th FAO REgional Conference for Africa, approved the following objectives: significant improvement in their food situation and laying foundations for self-sufficiency in cereals, livestock and fish; significant progress towards attaining a 50 per cent reduction in post-harvest losses, through construction of storage facilities and other means; improved transport infrastructure to facilitate food distribution at the national, subregional and regional levels; and support of indigenous research efforts through expanded and more effective agricultural research, with special emphasis on animal husbandry, improved seeds and an adequate supply of fertilizers, pesticides, and other chemicals suitable to African conditions.

The Assembly last year adopted a number of resolutions regarding aid for specific countries, including those in Africa and those suffering from drought. It reaffirmed that the right to food was "a universal human right" (resolution 38/158).

The United Nations has designated 1978-1988 as the Transport and Communications Decade in Africa, setting targets and goals fo wide ranging improvements in that period. The years 1980-1990 has been proclaimed the Industrial Decade for Africa.

Last year, the Assembly noted that the year 1991 might be designated as an international year for the mobilization of financial and technological resources to increase food and agricultural production in Africa (resolution 38/198). Aid to Refugees

The second International Conference on Assistance to REfugees in Africa (ICARA), to be held in Geneva in July 1984, has the theme, "Time for Solutions". The main objective of the Conference is to facilitate lasting solutions to the massive refugee problem in Africa by linking refugee assistance to development aid in the affected countries. The refugee situation is a major component of the current African crisis. The majority of the continent's estimated 4 million refugees are women and children. The largest concentrations are in the Horn of Africa and Sudan, as well as in Rwanda, Uganda, Zaire, Burundi, the United REpublic of Tanzania and southern Africa.

In preparation for the Conference, United Nations experts have reviewed a list of 128 projects, submitted to ICARA II by 14 countries seriously affected by large refugee and returnee populations: Angola, Botswana, Burundi, Ethiopia, Kenya, Lesotho, Rwanda, Somalia, Sudan, Swasiland, Uganda, United Republic of Tanzania, Zaire and Zambia. The aim is to reinforce the economic and social infrastructure in these countries to help them deal with the serious impact created by the refugees and returnees.

Projects include: poultry marketing in Botswana ($330,000), construction of 25 grain storage warehouses ($5 million) and a bee-keeping centre (750,000) in Somalia. External assistance totalling $362 million over a 3 to 5 year period will be required for implementation.

Many other actions have been taken. Examples are:

* FAO announced emergency food aid grants of $27.2 million from WFP resources for drought victims and homeless refugees in seven African countries: Benin, Chad, Guinea, Guinea-Bissau, Somalia, Togo and Zimbabwe.

* IFAD approved a $7.3 million loan for an irrigation project in central Tunisia, one of the least developed regions of the country, which has insufficient irrigation water, mainly because of poor management and inadequate maintenance of the public irrigation works.

* The World Bank loaned Nigeria $41 m illion for the development of its small and medium-sized industries. Its affiliate, the IDA, granted an $8 million credit to Guinea to finance surveys of potential petroleum reserves, and a $22.4 million credit to Zambia to improve its timber plantations and processing facilities.

For the first time in its history, the World Bank has made a grant for emergency food relief, with a contribution of $2 million to the World Food Programme to help expedite the flow of emergency food aid in Sub-Saharan Africa. The Bank normally does not participate in short-term relief programmes, but agreed to the exceptional grant because of the unprecedented magnitude and impact of the drought.

In response to the "distinctly unsatisfactory performance of the food and agriculture sector" in Africa, the African Heads of State and Government of the Organization of African Unity (OAU) adopted in 1979 the Monrovia Strategy for the Economic Development of Africa. In April 1980, they approved the Lagos Plan of Action (document A/S-11/14) for the implementation of that Strategy.

The Plan envisaged a total investment of $21.4 billion for the period 1980-1985.

Adebayo Adedeji, Executive Secretary of the Economic Commission for Africa (ECA) and recently named Special Representative of the Secretary-General on the African crisis, told the General Assembly's Second Committee in November that implementation of the Lagos Plan was in jeopardy.

African economic conditions were "rapidly deteriorating" and domestic efforts alone would be "grossly inadequate to meet the challenge posed" . . . "For Africa to be able to arrest present economic trends and survive economically, the injection of massive external support is imperative", Mr. Adedeji declared.

'Self-Reliance': The Lagos Plan represents the resolve of African States "to adopt a far-reaching regional approach based primarily on collective self-reliance".

Africa's underdevelopment, the Plan states, is not inevitable, as the continent contains immense human and natural resources: 97 per cent of world reserves of chrome; 85 per cent of platinum; 64 per cent of manganese; 25 per cent of uranium; 13 per cent of copper; 20 per cent of world hydro-electrical potential; 20 per cent of traded oil (excluding the United States and the Soviet Union); 70 per cent of world cocoa production; 33 per cent of world coffee production; 50 per cent of world palm produce.

Africa is "susceptible to the disastrous effects of natural and endemic diseases of the cruelest type", and is a victim of settler exploitation arising from colonialism, racism and apartheid, the preamble states. During the last 20 years, the Plan maintains, colonial exploitation had been carried out through "neo-colonialist external forces which seek to influence the economic policies and directions of African States".

The average rate of growth since 1960 had been no more than 4.8 per cent, a figure which hid "divergent realities ranging from 7 per cent growth rate for the oil-exporting countries down to 2.9 per cent for the least developed countries". The "overall poor performance of the African economy over the past 20 years may even be a golden age compared with future growth rate", the Plan warns.

Six Guidelines: The Plan sets out six basic guidelines to encourage economic growth:

* applying of African resources principally to meet the needs and purposes of its peoples;

* basing development and growth on a combination of Africa's natural resources, entrepreneurial, managerial and technical resources and markets and shifting away from its almost total reliance on the export of raw materials;

* cultivating the "virtue of self-reliance";

* mobilizing its entire human and material resources for its development;

* pursuing economic, social and cultural activities to mobilize the strength of each country and sharing by States of benefits derived from development; and

* pursuing efforts towards African economic integration to create a "continent-wide framework for the much-needed economic co-operation for development" based on collective self-reliance.

Although five years old, the Lagos Plan provides still-relevant policy positions and a specific framework for restructuring and transforming the African food and agriculture sector, as well as other sectors in crisis, including: industry; natural resources; environment; energy; human resources; science and technology; and transportation and communications.

Matters related to trade and finance; economic and technical co-operation among developing countries (ECDC and TCDC); and least developed countries are also covered in the Plan. The People

According to recent United Nations estimates, the population of Africa today is 537 million, more than twice the 1960 total of 257 million. The annual population growth rate for 1980-1985 is estimated at 3 per cent, as against 2 per cent for all the developing world. By the year 2000, current projections indicate, there will be 877 million Africans--and the figure will double again to 1.6 billion by 2025.

A high and fairly constant fertility level and a declining infant mortality rate were major factors in Africa's high growth rate, resulting in a young population and a high dependency ratio. By 1980, 44 per cent of the region's population were under 15 years of age. For every 100 active persons, there were 92 non-active dependents. Estimated life expectancy at birth was 47 (males) and 50 (females); average family size was 6 or ( children. Although Africa accounts for a quarter of the earth's land mass, it is sparsely populated; population density is only 16 persons per square kilometre of land.

The region recorded the world's highest rural-urban migration rate during the 1960-1980 period; the proportion living in urban areas went from 20 to 30 per cent, in 1980. Yet Africa remains the world's least urbanized continent. Fewer than 20 of its cities have a million or more inhabitants. The major problems associated with population distribution patterns include high urban growth rates, imbalances between population and resource distribution, areas of population density too low support development infrastructure, and international migration.

Average per capita income in 1980 in Africa was $741, as compared to a per capita gross national product of $9,684 in industrialized countries. Sub-Saharan countries had, in 1980, a per capita income of only $239. Of a total of 33 million people added to the potential African labour force in the 1970s, some 15 million were unemployed. Seventy of every 100 Africans in 1980 were considered either "destitute" or on the verge of poverty.

By 1980, more than 70 per cent of Africa's primary school age children were enroled in school, as were 14 per cent of the secondary school age population and 1.8 per cent for universities and higher institutions. But the orientation of education and the trained manpower mix have failed to respond to Africa's needs and aspirations, the ECA study states. While millions of dollars are spent on "experts", a large portion of the trained sons and daughters of the continent are serving outside the region, the study says. At home, as Africa turns out more primary and secondary school leavers it is, at the same time, increasing the mass of the educated unemployed.

The number of persons per doctor dropped from 10,000 in 1970 to less than 6,500 in 1980. But health facilities are concentrated in urban areas and most rural residents have only limited access to health care. since policies emphasize curative rather than preventive measures, diseases such as malaria, trypanosomiasis and bilharzia still afflict many Africans.

The availability of water is also critical. Only one in four persons has access to clean water. Overall, however, the African family still maintains tremendous resilience with regard to social stability and security, the study says. Culture is still the glue of the African system despite the communication barriers that the region faces in terms of an unintegrated transport network, a multiplicity of languages and a high illiteracy rate of over 60 per cent. Food and Agriculture

Africa's potential arable land is estimated at about 1.7 hectares for each African person, but only about 0.55 hectares per person is being used now. The food crisis is due not only to drought and desertification; it also results from low agricultural productivity rates linked to inadequate investment outlays in agriculture; poor incentives to farmers; fragmentation and subdivision of holdings; inadequate land tenure systems; limited agricultural research; rural-urban migration; and institutional constraints. While the world average for cereals output is about 2,000 kilos per hectare, Africa's average is 1,090 per hectare. Africa's fertilizer consumption level is 3 kilos per hectare, compared to 8 kilos in Latin america and 26 in Asia.

In the 1970s, when the African population was expanding at an average annual rate of around 2.8 per cent, total food production in the region was rising by no more than 1.5 per cent. Food self-sufficiency ratios dropped from 98 per cent in the 1960s to around 86 per cent by 1980, implying that each African had around 12 per cent less homegrown food than 20 years earlier. While overall food production improved slightly over a 10-year period, food demand grew as population expanded.

To cover widening food deficits, ECA reports, Africa has had to import increasing amounts of food or receive aid. Between 1970 and 1980, the volume of total food imports increased by an average annual rate of 8.4 per cent. Imports of food grains alone reached 20.4 million tons in 1980. In that year, cereal imports cost Africa more than $5 billion--plus transportation expenses.

Africa's increasing reliance on food aid and imports threatens to create a new and dangerous structural dependence on cereals, such as wheat, which is not easily grown in many parts of Africa, ECA reports. Also, food aid and food imports do not reach many of the urban and rural poor.

Despite recorded increases in food imports, Africa still remains calorie-deficient. More than 20 per cent of its population has an energy intake below the critical minimum limit. Transport and Communications

The inadequacy and poor condition of Africa's transport and communications infrastructure, coupled with inefficient services, remain major obstacles to the general economic and social development of the region, according to the ECA study.

Earth roads account for a considerable proportion of the road network. Most are generally operable only during the dry season, even though they provide the only access to villages and agricultural and other productive areas and are the main traffic feeders to primary and secondary roads.

Primary and secondary roads constitute less than 50 per cent of the total African road network. Average road density in developing Africa is only .05

kilometres per square kilometre, far below the average for developing countries as a whole. By 1981-1982, there were only 9.2 vehicles per 1,000 persons--about 109 persons per vehicle--and many vehicles remain immobilized for long periods, the ECA study states.

Africa's rail network totals 80,706 kilometres. It consists of short independent national systems of different gauges, making it difficult to promote integration. The average operating speed of the African railway system is 40 kilometres per hour.

Some 40 foreign airlines and 51 African airlines serve the continent, but only 20 per cent of total air transport operations involve direct links among African countries. Seaborne trade has increased only marginally, with the region's shipping capacity constituting only 1 per cent of world tonnage as compared to 10 per cent for developing countries as a whole.

Transport continues to be a major bottleneck to development of food production in Africa. Local transport depends heavily on headloading, buckets, bicycles and animals, although use of trucks is increasing. Transport by rail or barge would appear to be cheaper than by road, but few areas are served by them.

The development of an African telecommunications system has been helped since 1977 as a direct result of the activities of the United Nations Transport and Communications Decade in Africa (1979-1988) and the institution of the Pan African Telecommunications Network. Yet, in spite of recent rapid growth of 14 per cent per annum between 1977 and 1981, the overall average telephone density in Africa is only 76 phones per 1,000 persons, below the goal of 1 telephone per 100 persons by 1988. Telephone density, moreover, is not evenly distributed. In some parts of Sub-Saharan Africa, only one person per 1,000 has a phone.

Many African countries have developed transmission facilities with satellite communications mainly for international services directed towards Europe and America. For telephone calls between African countries, connections are still made mainly via developed countries.

The Lagos Plan states that the development of transportation and communications depends on growth in other sectors, the socio-economic integration of Africa and the promotion of intra-and extra-African trade. Natural Resources

Africa is known to possess vast reserves of natural resources in the form of minerals, the ECA study states. For example, Africa's share of reserves in the total known reserves of the world is 8.5 per cent for oil, 25 per cent for uranium, 21 per cent for bauxite, 45.2 per cent for cobalt and 67 per cent for phosphorites. However, real potentials may be masked by these figures, as the continent remains largely unexplored.

While the minerals currently exploited continue to play vital strategic roles in industrialized countries, Africa itself remains unable not only to use but also to process its minerals. Most ongoing exploitation remains in the hands of foreign transnational corporations.

The trend of mineral production in Africa in the 1970s was disappointing. As of 1980, the situation had reached alarming proportions, the ECA study states. In 1980, production of iron ore, chromite, zinc, nickel and diamonds was below the mid-1970s level. Poor demand resulting from the world recession and depressed prices has adversely affected export prospects so that many promising projects in mineral exploitation have had to be abandoned. Further, industrialized countries importing Africa's mineral output seem to be looking for other sources. Industry

The industrialization process in Africa, the ECA study states, has failed to provide for a structural transformation to make the African economy self-sustaining. The sector remains small, accounting for only 9.87 per cent of the region's gross domestic product. By 1980, Africa was still the least industrialized region in the world.

The region's industrial sector is characterized by an inflexible structure; it is concentrated in a small number of countries and limited to only a few lines of production. Except for production of a narrow range of intermediate goods, the sector consists mainly of light industries producing consumer goods, with a crude and relatively weak system of processing and semi-processing of mineral and agricultural raw materials, mainly for export.

The existing production structure is based on small plants with little in terms of economies of scale. Heavy industries are rudimentary and have been "attempted coherently in only a few countries", the ECA report states. Therefore, the production of capital goods is only marginal in the region as a whole. As a result, Africa remains a major importer of capital goods. Imported equipment and machinery account for more than 35 per cent of its total annual investments.

Export-oriented industrial production has met with limited success in the region as a whole. Manufactured exports have suffered from severe competition from other developing countries in terms of quality and price, a heavy dependence on imports for producing manufactured goods for export and low levels of capacity utilization. Worse still, the recession in developed countries has resulted in a sluggish export market as more of these countries adopt protectionist policies and quota restrictions on labour-intensive products from developing countries.

An issue paper prepared for the Fourth General Conference of the United Nations Industrial Development Organization (UNIDO), to be held in August in Vienna, states:

"In 1975, the African region had a share of 0.88 per cent of the total world manufacturing value added (MVA) and by 1982 this had risen to 1.11 per cent. This figure is . . . in excess of the 1 per cent target for 1985 embodied in the Lagos Plan of Action, and . . . therefore the subsequent targets of 1.4 per cent for 1990 for Africa and 2 per cent for the year 2000 do not seem unattainable. It should be recalled, however, that the relative nature of the target means that without a sustained recovery of the world economy, the actual MVA of Africa in absolute terms may yet remain small and may thus make little contribution to the overall development of this region". Energy

Africa's reserves of energy resources, both traditional and non-traditional, are quite substantial, the ECA study states. The latest available information indicates that Africa has some 55 billion barrels of crude oil (8.5 per cent of world proven reserves); 208,470 billion cubic feet of natural gas (7.9 per cent of world proven reserves); 88.5 billion tons of coal reserves (between 1.16 and 3.05 per cent of the world's estimated reserves); 1.7 million tons of uranium (some 25 per cent of world resources); and 200,000 megawatts of potential hydro-capacity (35.4 per cent of world potential hydro-capacity), only a small fraction of which has been tapped.

In addition, Africa has appreciable potential in new and renewable sources of energy, including solar, wind, biogas, geothermal and ocean energy. However, these substantial energy reserves are not evenly distributed between subregions and countries. Petroleum deposits are mainly concentrated in North Africa, hydro-electric resources in Central Africa, geothermal potential along the Rift Valley in East Africa and coal deposits in the southern and southeastern regions of the continent.

African production of primary energy resources registered, in recent years, a steady growth, increasing by 12.3 per cent yearly in coal equivalent from 65 million tons in 1960 to 589.4 million tons in 1979. As a percentage of world energy production, Africa's share increased from 1.4 per cent in 1960 to about 5.8 per cent in 1979.

Africa's consumption of energy increased tremendously during the 1970s, at a rate of 6.4 per cent per year, in spite of higher energy prices. The main components of Africa's commercial energy consumption are crude petroleum and liquid gas. Africa's energy consumption also has increased, and the oil import bill has posed severe constraints on development. Africa produces four times as much crude oil as it consumes, but most of it is exported outside the region. In many countries productive activities and services often are slowed or halted because of energy shortages and balance-of-payments difficulties. (In 1980, crude oil production in Africa amounted to 314.1 million tons, of which 267 million tons were exported. Since crude oil consumption was 72.4 million tons, the region as a whole had a deficit of 25.3 million tons of crude oil, which had to be imported.) Trade and Finance

The early development of foreign trade in Africa was sporadic. Momentum was gained in the 1960s and thereafter trade expanded from $4.9 billion in 1960 to $89.6 billion in 1980. Nevertheless, Africa's share in world exports declined from 3.9 per cent in 1970 to 3.4 per cent in 1979, not only because of spectacular increases in world exports but also due to the slow expansion in regional exports, concentrated on only a few primary agricultural and mineral commodities.

Export dependency on primary raw materials has had negative effects on Africa's export earnings. Problems include price instability in international markets, competition of synthethics and other substitutes, increasing quota restrictions and other trade barriers, declining agricultural productivity and increases in prices of imported inputs.

While real imports of developing African countries continued to increase by 5.8 per cent yearly between 1970 and 1980, the structure of imports in terms of commodity composition remained fairly constant. Imports of consumer goods continue to account for the largest share in Africa's total import bill, in the range of 35 to 45 per cent. In many countries, especially those which are drought-prone, food imports are a major component of total imports.

Africa's terms of trade declined significantly throughout the

1970s, and the balance-of-payments position also worsened. There has been a continuous drain on foreign exchange reserves, and insufficient growth in the capital flows and official transfers. Total outstanding debt in 1983 amounted to $150 billion.

Developed market economies have continued to be Africa's major trading partners, mainly as a result of long-standing political and commercial links. Africa's trade with other developing countries has not increased significantly, and trade with centrally planned economies has actually declined. Most serious is the stagnation or decline in the growth of recorded intra-African trade, mainly because of poor transport and communications, and inadequate financing and credit facilities. Technology Gap

In a report on technological developments and Africa (document A/38/280), the Secretary-General describes the poor state of technology available to the majority of farmers in Africa. Traditional methods in use for centuries still dominate, with little improvement. Human labour provides a much larger share (84 per cent) of total farm power in Africa than in the rest of the developing world. Locally produced hand tools are most commonly used, such as the cutlass and axe for land clearing, hoes for tillage, dibbling sticks for planting and sickles for harvesting.

The control of the tse-tse fly and animal trypanosomiasis -- which currently affect up to 10 million square kilometres in Africa -- and the introduction of trypano-tolerant breeds would offer great potential for livestock and crop development.

Tractor mechanization -- mostly associated with large-scale government farming schemes -- has met with many failures and has been a drain on government revenues through subsidization. Poor planning and management, inadequate maintenance and use on inappropriate soil contribute to the disappointing results. Small tractors are being introduced in parts of Africa, but more effort is required to make them more economical and suitable to particular needs, the report states.

Traditional harvesting by threshing often involves big losses, and requires much time and labour. Crops are traditionally dried in the sun, under less than ideal conditions. While artificial drying might be required, as in the more humid areas, simple hatch driers have been developed that are suitable for joint use by co-operatives or other farmers' groups. Traditional farm-level processing of grain by hand pounding is extremely arduous and time-consuming, but is likely to predominate in Africa for a long time to come.

Storage losses are particularly large for roots, tubers, bananas and plantains because of their high moisture content. Highly perishable products such as meat, dairy products and fish pose even more serious problems.

In many parts of Africa, livestock for slaughter are trekked along routes that are not equipped with water and feeding points, or are carried in unsuitable vehicles, resulting in high weight loss and deaths. Slaughter for local consumption, generally in unhygienic premises, does not assure the full use of carcass meat and by-products, and the technology for using edible byproducts is inadequate.

Recent changes in overall land use in Africa have mainly been characterized by the widespread destruction of the tropical forests, and a declining share of forest and grazing land in relation to cultivated land. Since so little is known about the behaviour of tropical soils after their natural forest cover has been removed, the application of modern land use planning technologies is urgently needed, the report goes on.

Communal ownership of land predominates in rural Africa, and shifting cultivation is the most widespread traditional system of land use, especially in the more humid areas of West Africa. The land is generally cropped for two or three years and then left fallow, for 8 to 12 years in tropical rainforest and 15 or more years in drier areas. While it may be considered wasteful to leave three quarters of the land uncultivated, it remains a rational and ecological way of farming abundant but infertile soil. This system is breaking down, however. Settled agriculture is expanding, and private ownership is emerging in many countries. Population pressure and acquisition of communal lands for large-scale public and private schemes have resulted in changing the land use cycle to shorter periods of fallow and longer periods of cultivation.

Africa's technological backwardness is one of the major explanations of low standards of material living, ill-health and inability to control or modify environmental factors such as droughts and floods, the report says. The capacity to generate home-grown technology is very low, partly because of the inability or unwillingness of many African countries to formulate policies which can lead to technological self-reliance. Least Developed Countries

The Lagos Plan devotes a major section to least developed countries, 26 of which are in Africa. The OAU in 1980 adopted a Comprehensive New Programme of Action for Least Developed Countries, which provided a basis for the Substantial New Programme of Action (SNPA) for least developed countries (LDCs) adopted in Paris in September 1981.

The Assembly has defined LDCs by three criteria: a per capita gross domestic product (GDP) of $100 or less; manufacturing accounting for 10 per cent or less of GDP; and a literacy rate (the proportion of literate persons over 15 years of age) of 20 per cent or less.

The 36 LDCs are: Afghanistan, Bangladesh, Benin, Bhutan, Botswana, Burundi, Cape Verde, Central African Republic, Chad, Comoros, Democratic Yemen, Djibouti, Ethiopia, Equatorial Guinea, Gambia, Guinea, Guinea-Bissau, Haiti, Lao People's Democratic Republic, Lesotho, Malawi, Maldives, Mali, Niger, Nepal, Rwanda, Samoa, Sao Tome and Principe, Sierra Leone, Somalia, Sudan, Togo, Uganda, United Republic of Tanzania, Upper Volta and Yemen.

The General Assembly in 1983 called on donor countries, within the overall context of the SNPA and progress towards a 0.7 per cent target, to attain 0.15 per cent of their gross national product as official development assistance (ODA) or to double their ODA to LDCs by 1985 or as soon as possible thereafter.

Total manufacturing output, which grew by 6.5 per cent per year in the LDCs in the 1960s, and by 4.1 per cent in the 1970s, fell by 1.2 per cent from 1980 to 1981.

The Office of the United Nations Disaster Relief Coordinator (UNDRO) reported natural disasters in 21 of the 36 LDCs between January 1981 and April 1983. Many African LDCs, especially in the Sudano-Sahelian belt but also including Botswana and Lesotho, were affected by drought in late 1982 and early 1983.

An Encounter in Timbuktu

When I heard in Mali that we would visit Timbuktu, I thought of what I knew about its golden age from the 10th to the 15th centuries, when caravans arrived laden with salt, carpets and dates to be traded for gold and brilliant feathers. But now Timbuktu is different for me. And it is a name I will never forget.

My first impression was of sand--a dull, dun-colored sand. It was everywhere, hiding our feet ankle-high as we walked, and in the color of the sky--all around us this gray-brown sand.

When we turn on the water tap we never think that a place like Timbuktu exists where there is no tap to turn on, no well to fetch water from, no river. There is simply no means of getting water. Walking through the earthen streets, we witnessed the most terrible misery, and I could feel the tears growing inside me. The children had enormous stomachs and sunken eyes, flies crawling on their faces. Their faces betrayed only the most complete resignation.

For a moment we stopped walking and stood by the only bush in sight, which perhaps had managed to grow thanks to the protection of a wall made of adobe, the material used in all the buildings there. When we stopped several people approached us, among them children. Suddenly I saw a little boy covered in a rag which might once have been white, but which by now had taken on the standard color of Timbuktu. i looked at him and thought I was going to faint.

The little child with such beautiful large eyes, which were covered with flies, looked at me, too and I clenched my teeth and cried, feeling the tears pouring down as I tried to control my sobs with an almost inhuman effort of the sort only we humans are capable of, at certain times in our lives. I was paralyzed, because I saw that not only were his beautiful eyes covered with flies but also his mouth and above all his chin, where the flies were swarming--they had eaten away his skin and left his living flesh open to the air.

The child continued to watch me, impassive, while the flies crawled over him. From time he raised his little ebony-colored hand and made a faint gesture, as if to ward them off. I could not take my eyes off him, but I know with the utmost sorrow that in spirit he will always be with me. You cannot uproot a child from his home like an object. He had a mother and father there. I knew that I had to keep going but also that his memory would make me do something for him.

I have seen misery before and know it well. I have seen it at first hand many times in my country, and in other places in the world--but misery as I saw there, never. And Timbuktu lies at the heart of a world of dark sand, heavy and thick, with no chance of escape.

There are not many who believe in miracles, but I am one. I also believe that only a miracle can save those fellow human beings of ours who live in such conditions. They themselves are resigned to their fate, but we who are so privileged cannot resign ourselves to allowing even a single Timbuktu to exist in this world.

A 'Willed Future' for Africa

THE colonial heritage, the present world economic order and difficualt geographic and ecological conditions have contributed, in many ways, to the present problems of Africa, However, one must not lose sight of the fact that Africa's domestic order, involving unfavourable development perceptions and patterns, static taboos and traditions, political and economic mismanagement, etc., is one of the major contributory factors to socioeconomic malaise.

Most African countries suffered from the effects of colonial domination for decades and, in some cases, for centuries. Throughout these long periods, the economic activities of the African countries, by the design of the colonial Powers, concentrated on the exploitation of the region's natural resources for the development of the metropolitan centres. With such forced and unhealthy integration of the African region into the mainstream of the colonizer's social and economic order, the African economy was derailed and disoriented into (a) overspecialization in raw material production; (b) overdependency on external markets in a South-North framework; and (c) development of enclaves in the economies of the individual African countries.

In the social field, the development of human resources through education, training and health and other basic services was entirely neglected, thus crippling the very foundation of the development of the region. More tragically, the colonial domination left undesirable scars on the psychology of the African people resulting, inter alia, in a deep-seated loss of self-confidence and pride. Finally, the parcelling of the region by the colonial Powers into a large number of small States made many African economies weak and unviable, thus reducing the ability of the region to gather the necessary momentum for socio-economic take-off.

While, through strenuous efforts, political independence was attained by the present 50 States members of the Economic Commission for Africa, socio-economic disengagement from the post-war world economic order (the socalled Bretton Woods order) has remained illusory. This world order has implied for the African region: (a) perverse international financial and monetary arrangements; (b) increasing domination by the developed countries through, inter alia, transnational corporations; (c) monopolistic technology markets; and (d) stagnant or declining prices of raw material exports from the develping countries, while prices of manufactured imports from the developed countries are continually increasing. The cumulative effects of such an order on the African region has been than Africa can hardly get the equity it deserves. The African economy remains overly dependent on foreign trade, foreign capital, foreign technology, foreign expertise, etc.

Nature's designs in terms of geographic conditions and climatic changes have also often been calamitous. Floods, drought, desertification, tropical diseases and intense heat, etc. afflict a fairly large part of the African continent. More generally, the geographic location, the topography and the ecology of the region impose severe physical limits on the efficient exploitation of the region's natural resources. Furthermore, the African region has had to use machinery, equipment and basic materials--developed and produced in the temperate regions--which are not suited or adapted to the African tropical climatic conditions. As a result, the region's capital stock cannot easily be maintained within its normal economic life, implying chronic breakdowns and high obsolescence rates.

NO doubt, the proper development of any region is also dependent on the domestic order which sets the preconditions for progress and acts as the catalyst to further advancement. The herculean task of moving a people from the depths of poverty, backwardness, ignorance and disease to the heights of prosperity and modernity has never been achieved except through domestic efforts in a conducive domestic and international environment. In this context, it is disheartening to note that the development perceptions, concepts, attitudes and habits in Africa have tended merely to mimic foreign patterns. Thus, the production structure and life-styles in Africa have both contributed to the retardation of the region's growth.

Overall, production in Africa is dominated by services designed to promote mass consumption of foregin goods. Many non-productive prestigious projects have been undertaken by Governments at the expense of productive sectors like agriculture. Indeed, most of the region's domestic resources--financial and human--continue to be diverted into speculative activities, while areas that constitute the very bases for development and progress receive only slogans and promises.

Within such an environment, the thinkers, planners and policy-makers in the African region have persistently marginalized the potential of and interplay between culture, traditions and development. Simple examples include the very large part of the population left out the mainstream of Africa's develpment and the ignored potential of the region in areas like traditional medicines, technology, etc.

At the management level, Africa has so far been unable to achieve a social, political and economic environment conducive to the socio-economic welfare of the African population. Given the psychological distortions inherited from the colonial era, the present political structures still have problems in ensuring freedom and social justice commensurate with the needs of the region. The failure to democratize the overall development process has, therefore, grossly undermined the mass participation of the region's most important resource--its people. The development of entrepreneurial capacities and operational planning and implementation machinery is also jeopardized. Often, nepotism and corruption, coupled with a lack of tranined manpower, have led to rampant mismanagement of crucial and key activities and services. Finally, the political tensions in the region have generally brought about misallocation of resources involving, in particular, massive defence expenditures.

THE picture that emerges from an analysis of the African region by the year 2008 under an historical trends scenario is almost a nightmare. Bearing in mind that the future of 2008 is the future of they young and unborn children of Africa today, the implications have to be taken seriously. Firstly, the potential population explosion would have tremendous repercussions on the region's physical resources such as land and the esential social services--education, health, housing, nutrition, water, etc. At the national level, the socio-economic conditions would be characterized by a degration of the very essence of human dignity. The rural population, which have to survive on intolerable toil, will face an almost disastrous situation of land scarcity whereby whole families would have to subsist on a mere hectare of land. Poverty would reach unimaginable dimensions since rural incomes would become almost negligible relative to the cost of physical goods and services.

The conditions in the urban centres would also worsen with more shanty towns, more congested roads, more beggars and more delinquents. The level of the unemployed searching desperately for the means to survive would imply increased crime rates and misery. But, alongside the misery, there would continue to be those very few who, unashamedly, would demostrate an even higher degree of conspicuous consumption. These very few would continue to demand that the national department stores be filled with imports of luxury goods even if spare parts for essential production units cannot be procured for lack of foreign exchange.

Against such a background of misery and social injustice, the political situation would inevitably be difficult. The very consequence of extreme poverty would be social tensions and unrest which, in turn, would result in political instability. Management systems, which are at the very core of a proper development that produces the necessary physical goods and services for the people, would be increasingly undermined by problems of corruption, nepotism and inefficiency. Further, the weak and fragile social political structure would mean highly unstable national structures vis-a-vis external powers and forces.

With increased food shortages, many Governments would be put at the mercy of food donors with many implicit strings that undermine deliberate national action for progress. With the continuous and cumulative financial difficulties, Governments would have little choice but to yield to the often unkind designs of international monopoly capital. As a result, the very notion of national sovereignty would be at stake.

At the subregional and regional levels, the implications of the historical scenarion are as disastrous as the national level. Firstly, as a result of the penetration by outside forces given very weak social, political and economic national structures, the African region would, by 2008, be under a new and more dangerous form of balkanization in terms of market to dump the products of other regions and in terms of international power games. This neoparcelling of Africa would mean that the region would face a crisis of identity. The different African countries--with only apparent sovereignty--would look at each other in terms of the "camp of donors" to which they belonged. The psychological and cultural erosion that such a situation would bring about would then complete the sorry picture of a resigned, depleted and self-pitying continent.

Faced with such a disturbing and unacceptable situation if present trends were to continue, the question is what future should Africa set out to conquer by the year 2008.

The very first element that has to characterize Africa's future relates to the development and utilization of the human factor. In this respect the education system by the year 2008 should have been redesigned such that there are no barriers between education and employment, education and society, education and culture, education and technology, etc. Similarly, the socio-political milieu in which the individual exists simultaneously as a generator and consumer of wealth has to be tuned so as to bring out of society, while at the same time offering society, the best of life. This means that at the national level the democratization of the entire social, economic and political subsystems is a necessary feature of Africa's future.

Secondly, there is a need for a new life-style for the African people. The implications of consuming what Africa does not produce while neglecting its own products would be disastrous. This calls for a new social feature of self-confidence and pride. In this respect it should be noted that, while a development scenario does not project total self-sufficiency in all physical products and services, it emphasizes the need to eliminate the social and psychological dependency of society that brings about unwarranted mimicry. Indeed, the indigenization of the African economy, the attainment of self-reliance, the expansion of domestic production capabilities and markets, innovation, etc. cannot come about if the African region remains psychologically dependent on other regions. Thus, new cultural, social and scientific values have to become important features of Africa's socio-economic development by the coming century.

But in addition to the national features, the African region has to be convinced that effective and meaningful co-operation among African States is a necessity for a willed future. Given the balkanization of the region and the large number of small economies, given the many land-locked countries and given the disparities in resource endowments, regional co-operation becomes a critical complement to national self-reliance. If the willed future is to materialize, the region as a whole has to develop the will to co-operate in all fields--food, energy, industry, transport, trade, money and finance, human resource development, etc.

There is, of course, little doubt that world peace will be necessary for Africa to achieve its aspirations. But, in addition, Africa will require a better and more equitable international economic order and the region as a whole must be convinced that with solidarity it can and, indeed, must negotiate to bring about a new international order. This order must be such that Africa will be an equal partner in the production, distribution, and consumption of the world's wealth. The world order must hear the voice of Africa in the formulation and implementation of decisions that affect international relations. That world order must recognize, accept and respect the sovereignty of the African States.

The socio-economic prospects for the African region under an historical trends scenario are undoubtely undesirable. Therefore a radical change of the African social, economic and political environment is urgently called for to lay the foudation of individual and collective self-reliance and self-sustainment. Since Africa is not resource-poor, bringing about the desired change is not impossible. What is necessary, if perhaps not sufficient, is for aFrican Governments and people to resolve to break with the past concepts, habits, attitudes, approaches, etc. The future depends mainly on the will of people of Africa to initiate change. A "Vaccine Cocktail"

New Life for Livestock

A "vaccine cocktail" to prevent the loss of millions of livestock over vast areas of Africa is under study by a Nairobi-based animal research laboratory assisted by the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP).

The development of such an antidote against at least one important phase of trypanosomiasis--the sleeping sickness carried by the tsetse fly over vast areas of Africa and other parts of the developing world -- is considered possible by the International Laboratory for Research on Animal Diseases (ILRAD) after five years of research (1978-1982).

The UNDP Governing Council has approved $3.8 million for a second phase of the project (1983-1987) based on the encouraging results of the Laboratory's initial efforts.

Among the facts set out it ILARD's final report on its 1978-1982 project (document DP/GLO/FINAL REPORT/7):

* The serious, often fatal, parasitic disease causes incalculable losses to hundreds of millions of people, including some of the poorest in the world, not only in terms of meat and dairy products, but in terms of leather, wool, fertilizer and other animal by-products, animal power and potential capital resources.

* The problem is especially severe in Africa, with a livestock population of some 170 million head of cattle and even greater numbers of sheep and goats. Specialists estimate that livestock populations could be doubled, and, in some tripled, if trypanosomiasis could be eradicated or kept under permanent control.

* An estimated 35 million persons and 25 million cattle are exposed to trypanosomiasis in Africa alone. The parasites are found over about 10 million square kilometres--roughly one third of the continent--occurring in nearly every country between the deserts of southern Africa and the Sahara.

* Some 7 million square kilometres of tropical savanna could support an estimated 125 million additional cattle and large numbers of sheep and goats "without environmental stress". The current $2 billion livestock production in sub-Saharan Africa could be doubled if disease-affected areas were brought up to appropriate levels of production.

* The benefits would extend beyond crisis-ridden Africa, as some 50 countries in Asia, Latin America, and the Middle East as well as Africa have a similar problem.

"Of potentially great importance is trypano-tolerance, through which an animal is able to resist the disease or cure itself of infection. Although it has been known for 80 years that this resistance exists in some breeds of cattle, small ruminants and many species of wild herbivores, little is yet known of its mechanism", the report states.

The report says that while there does not appear to be any real hope of producing a comprehensive vaccine against the disease, it may be possible to produce the "vaccine cocktail"--so-called because it would provide a "mix" of ingredients to fight a number of "antigens" (protein material composing parasitic surfaces) involved in one crucial phase of the illness.

Causes and Effects: The disease is caused by single-celled parasites which invade the bloodstream and tissue. The most important species in economic terms are those which infect cattle, sheep and goats in Africa (tryanosoma congolense, T Vivax and T brucei Brucei), the report says.

Two subspecies of T brucei -- T b rhodesiense and T b gambiense--cause human sleeping sickness. Most African strains are transmitted by the tsetse fly, while is South America, other types of biting flies are carriers. Still another strain, T evansi, can affect camels in Africa and Asia and horses, cattle and domestic buffalo in South America, India and South-East Asia.

When affected, animals develop anaemia, become weak and lose weight. Breeding animals may abort or become infertile. Many die. In other cases, the disease may become chronic, severely reducing growth and productivity. In man, the parasites cause fever, anaemia and weakness; they invade the central nervous system before the patient dies.

Controlling the disease: Currently, the disease is controlled primarily by spraying tsetse resting and breeding sites with insecticide and by treating people and animals with trypanocidal drugs. Complete control has been rarely achieved, even after substantial effort.

The methods are expensive and thus beyond the reach of many farmers and livestock producers, the report says. The effect of insecticides is limited in high-rainfall areas, and there is increasing resistance to the use of drugs. The possibility of environmental pollution is high. One experiment involved the release of sterile male tsetse flies, but was rated impracticable and too expensive for widespread use.

Livestock do not develop the protective immunity that comes with exposure to other diseases on a long-term basis, the report states. "The parasites have evolved a unique mechanism for changing the proteins which compose their surface coats (the variable antigens), and the infected animals cannot produce antibodies quickly enough to prevent multiplication of the parasites", the report points out. This "antigenic variation" process is the main reason for lack of development of immunity and an effective vaccine.

The Laboratory focuses on host/parasite/vector relationships which may prove susceptible to immunological control. The objectives are to develop a vaccine suitable for mass immunization against the disease; promote the spread of resistant domestic livestock; improve the use of available drugs; and integrate programmes of vector control.

The Laboratory notes that in West and Central Africa, certain indigenous breeds of cattle have developed tolerance to these infections and sometimes recover without treatment. It hopes to analyze the mechanisms which enable those animals to resist the disease and develop marker systems to identify relatively resistant animals in different areas as a basis for improved breeding programmes.

Background: In 1969, the Rockefeller Foundation in the United States proposed establishing a specialized centre to conduct research on tropical animal diseases. In May 1971, a group of private foundations, national Governments and regional and international organizations formed the Consultative Group on International Agricultural Research (CGIAR) to increase and improve food production in developing countries. CGIAR is co-sponsored by UNDP, the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations and the World Bank. The International Laboratory was established in 1973, on the recommendation of CGIAR and the Rockefeller Foundation.

UNDP participation in global agricultural research was due largely to the "imagination and foresight" of UNDP's first administrator, Paul Hoffman, says the report. The global project was approved by UNDP's Governing Council in 1970. Since then, international agricultural research has been the focus of the global programme, which has "immense potential for enhancing food production in developing countries", the report states.

ILRAD, considered a "pioneering institution", has developed animal disease research facilities "considered to be the best in Africa" and which "rival those in any European or North American country", the report states. So far, ILRAD has trained more than 300 personnel involved in trypanosomiasis research and control in affected countries.

Mozambique's Victims

The Limpopo is the major river in Gaza Province and the source of water for the key agricultural areas in Chokwe and Xai-Xai districts. For most of its course it is now practically dry and one can easily drive a car across the riverbed in most places. As a result the rice irrigation system in Chokwe has sufficient water for only several hundred of the approximately 17,000 hectares available for farming. In the litoral zone of the province, the Limpopo is full, but salt-water intrusion renders it useless for agriculture. For the first time in memory, salt-water fish and shrimp can be caught in the Limpopo up as far as Xai-Xai City, approximately 18 km from the sea.

The drought has severely reduced agricultural production in Gaza, which traditionally is one of the most important agricultural areas in Mozambique. Driving through Xai-Xai Chokwe and Guija districts confirmed the impact of the drought. In some areas, the ground was completely parched and the fields empty. In other locations, we drove for literally miles through fields of stunted maize. Particularly hard hit was the areas from Xai-Xai to the sea, where the Government had encouraged the local farmers to plant extensively during April and May. The maize is now standing in seared and useless rows for as far as the eye can see.

The food situation in Gaza is alarming. The markets are practically devoid of food. Visits to markets in Bilene, Chokwe and Xai-Xai confirmed the complete lack of meat, fish, maize meal, rice and flour. In Xai-Xai, which boasts a population of 50,000 people, the central market was almost deserted at eight o'clock in the morning and the only food for sale was greens and some tomatoes. Most restaurants, small cafes and food shops were closed. Women workers in an agricultural co-operative in Guija revealed that they had eaten only tomatoes and lettuce for the last 10 days.

A visit to the province hospital in Xai-Xai gave a discouraging glimpse into how the food shortage was affecting the health of the local population, particularly the children. When we looked in at the children's wards, there were 27 children suffering from severe malnutrition. Many showed signs of marasmus and kwashiorkor. Children continue to die every month. The prime cause of malnutrition in the very young (two to three months old) is the inability of the mother to produce breast milk--a clear sign that the mothers, too, do not have enough to eat. The medical personnel in the hospital emphasized that only a small percentage of the children in need ever reached the hospital.

ECA Report: Problems and Progress

In 1983 we . . . witnessed the pervasive adverse effects of the openness of Africa's economy, particularly its excessive dependence on the industrialized countries, for the region's growth and development. Because the basic industries in the industrialized countries have not recovered enough, the demand for the region's iron ore, copper, cobalt, uranium and other metals of export importance to Africa has remained weak. The prices of these minerals firmed up remarkably until last August, but the momentum has since been lost and we are now witnessing a continuous general decline with the notable exception of aluminium.

The price of oil, which alone provides more than 70 per cent of the region's exports in value terms, has itself not reigstered any positive changes this year. Except for cotton and cocoa, agricultural export commodities have not fared any better. All these have combined to reduce considerably total export earnings in 1983 . . . External reserves continued to fall. They amounted to 12.6 billion SDR's by August 1983 compared to 13.7 billion at the end of 1982--a decrease of 8.1 per cent, which for many countries represented some 10 per cent of imports. Import-dependent sectors, such as manufacturing, were hard hit. Spare parts and other inputs were not available in sufficient amounts, so much so that many manufacturing firms functioned well below capacity and acute shortages of finishing goods were widespread . . .

Fiscal constraints mainly from the difficult situation in the external sector remained severe. We saw in 1983 a continuation of the policy of cutting public expenditure. The cuts have so far generally affected development expenditures since these entailed less social and policial costs than curtailing recurrent expenditure. Increasingly, however, the ordinary operations of Governments are being affected. There is evidence that existing capital stock is being steadily eroded because of the inability to undertake timely maintenance. Despite the curtailment of expenditure, deficits have not been eliminated, and since the deficits have been in a large measure financed by bank borrowing, inflation has persisted although at a reduced rate . . .

I am glad to be able to report that there is now across the continent an almost general movement towards reforming the whole system of support to agriculture be it through producer prices, input subsidies, extension services and credit systems. Some countries have been able to raise producer prices and increase budgetary allocation to agriculture. Marketing improvement measures have been introduced in some countries for stimulating food and agriculture production.

Nara, Northern Mali--An excruciating six-hour drive from Bamako: rubble, bumpy road surface, blinding dust eddies. Here we are at Nara, population 132,000, the dusty capital of this frontier region bordering Mauritania.

A tribe of Mauritanian herdsmen has set up camp beside the Tindie water point, 20 kilometres from Nara. They are only a few of the thousands of nomads who have invaded the Nara area with their herds, fleeing the relentless drought in Mauritania. Some come with their camels from the northern reaches of Mauritania; it took them three months just to cross Mauritania itself. Over half of those who left, human beings and animals, died on the way.

The survivors scour Malian territory in search of pasturage and water. Some go beyond Mali, to Upper Volta or Niger.

Twelve black tents have been erected at random at Tindie, each representing one family. There is a semblance of normal village life, even in these extremely difficult circumstances: Some women are grinding millet, while others braid their hair; children recite verses from the Koran. Nothing but women, children and old people. The able-bodied men have had to leave with the herds, in the endless quest for fodder and water. They may be separated from their families for several weeks at a time, the only contact being through the milk that they send back regularly to feed the encampment.

Mistaking us for a medical team, the women and children rush towards us. They are disappointed to learn that we are only journalists, for the health situation at the camp is very precarious. Some children have already died of tuberculosis or measles. There are also cases of meningitis and sciatica.

Then there are the pulmonary diseases, pneumonia and bronchitis, which are currently common because of the scarcity of the heavy blankets--made from camel's hair or sheep's wool--which the nomads normally use at night. These animals have fallen by the millions to the drought and their much-needed by-products are no longer available. At this time of year especially there are wide temperature differences between day and night. The nomads' light, flowing clothing is adequate for daytime, under the desert sun, but not sufficient against the nighttime cold.

The tent in which we are seated barely holds up against the torrid blasts of the harmattan, the wind from the Sahara that turns the entire Sahel into swirls of greyish dust. We are served the traditional fresh milk of the nomads--camel milk which is passed around in small grouds. As there is not enough to go around, we are also served a drink made from the fruit of the baobab tree, known in Senegal as "monkeybread". Half a dozen people have either an arm or a leg in a cast. They were in a car crash on the way to the market at Nara a few days earlier. The old saying is right: misfortunes never come singly.

The herdsmen's constant movements are a headache for the local authorities, who are trying to contain epidemics by a strenuous vaccination programme. Any breakdown in communication often has a high price. For example, half of this encampment's livestock has been lost to cattle plague. They learned from us that a vaccine against that epidemic disease is available free of charge at the Nara veterinary centre. Had they known of this, they would have thankfully made the journey to obtain some, they tell us. Impact of Nomads

The arrival en masse of these nomads had a disastrous impact on animal feeding and watering. They soon exhausted the available pasturage and water resources, for Nara too has suffered from the drought. The irregularity of the latest rains destroyed all the crops at Nara at the critical moment of flowering and grain formation.

"The drought has burnt all our fields of millet, sorghum and ground nuts. Things are becoming more difficult. We have nothing left to eat", Tata Souko, local leader in the National Union of Malian Women, tells us.

The appeals of Paolo Coppini, United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) Resident Representative at Bamako, are becoming urgent. He is responsible for coordinating all food aid operations in Mali. Of the 86,000 metric tons of grain which the country needs to meet the immediate food needs of part of the population hardest hit by the drought, only 54,000 tons have been pledged thus far (including 21,000 tons from the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations and the World Food Programme as emergency relief). "The difference must be made up before the biginning of the rainy season in July, if we are to avoid a disaster", Coppini tells us. The United Nations is also recommending that external aid amounting to $204 million be provided immediately for animal health and livestock feeding and watering projects in the areas affected by the drought.

We were struck by the absence of tension between Malians and Mauritanians. The fact is that, in this part of Mali, the intermingling between the populations of the two countries goes back a long way. There are bonds of kinship between inhabitants of the areas on each side of the border. "The Malians welcomed us with brotherly hospitality and have spared no effort to make our stay a pleasant one. All water points and pasturelands were placed at our disposal", the chief of the encampment tells us.

"An effective drought-control campaign can be waged only if we accept that drought remains a persistent and permanent threat," Paolo Coppini tells us. "Any action must therefre be aimed at building an economy which is compatible with progressive desertification and, in the medium term, at stopping the desertification process by combating the deterioration of the ecological environment", he states, echoing the view of Mali's President Moussa Traore.

These observations point clearly to what is at stake in this crisis--for beyond the emergency relief, the future of the Sahel will be guaranteed only by the implementation of medium and long-term programmes leading to food self-sufficiency. Hence the importance of the $2.3 billion plant of action just launched by the Permanent Inter-State Committee on Drought Control in the Sahel (CILSS).