Crime overtakes economy as top problem in Bay Area Poll; Area residents positive about business outlook.

SAN FRANCISCO--(BUSINESS WIRE)--Dec. 16, 1994--Mirroring statewide and national trends, Bay Area residents named crime the number one problem in the region, according to the latest Bay Area Poll.

Some 34 percent of those surveyed indicated crime, including the related issues of violence and gangs, is their main concern, in answer to an open-ended question that leads off the annual survey.

Unemployment and the economy -- together named by 32 percent of respondents as the top problem for the prior two years in the Bay Area Poll -- dropped to second place on this year's top six problems tally, cited by half as many people as last year -- just 17 percent of those polled.

In a special in-depth section of the poll that addressed Bay Area residents' attitudes toward housing, a strong 82 percent of those polled recognized the importance of the housing supply to the overall economic health of the Bay Area.

Consumer Confidence Measures Edge Up

Reflecting the drop in anxiety about unemployment and the economy, 43 percent of those surveyed think that they and their families will be financially better off a year from now, against 12 percent who predicted they would be worse off. Some 42 percent saw no change ahead in their personal situation.

This represents an improved outlook from a year ago, when 37 percent felt they would be better off by now, 45 percent saw no change, and nearly 15 percent expected their financial condition to get worse.

Better Times Foreseen for Business

The Bay Area Poll's annual measure of business confidence brought a strong response from more than half (57 percent) saying they expect business conditions in the Bay Area to be good in the year ahead.

Only 8 percent saw business conditions remaining the same, with 32 percent anticipating bad times ahead for business.

(See Consumer and Business Confidence trend numbers below.)

Two years ago, only 32 percent of those polled saw good business times ahead, and nearly 60 percent saw bad times ahead. Last year at this time, some 41 percent of the sample anticipated good times, while 53 percent saw bad times on the business horizon.

"The results for last year and this year show a modest, but steady upturn in personal consumer confidence," said Angelo J. Siracusa, president of the Bay Area Council, the business-sponsored public policy group that commissions the Bay Area Poll annually.

Upward Trend

"On the business front, we're also encouraged to learn that more than half of those polled see improvement ahead for business," Siracusa noted. "That is a strong upward trend from two years ago, when the number of people who saw bad times ahead was twice the number who anticipated good times.

"Although the upturn in consumer confidence may bode well for the Bay Area, business leaders and public officials must continue to work toward improving the business climate of the Bay Area," Siracusa said. "We need to hone a regional competitive edge that will enable us to attract new businesses and retain growing and successful businesses," Siracusa said.

Reinforcing that theme, Bay Area residents continue to favor economic development. When questioned about business, industry and commerce in the Bay Area, 88 percent indicated that economic development should be encouraged, the same positive response to this business climate issue at last year.

Transportation Concerns Remain High

The number three concern for Bay Area residents is transportation and the related issues of bridge, street, highway repair and traffic congestion, referenced by 12 percent of Bay Area poll respondents.

Transportation issues commanded the top spot in the Bay Area Poll for nine years prior to 1992, and continues to be a leading top-of- mind concern throughout the region.

Other problems in the Bay Area Poll's top six are: the quality of education, in fourth place, named by seven percent of those surveyed; the homeless, cited by 5 percent; and overpopulation, also noted by five percent.

In Depth Report: Housing recognized as key business issue for the Bay Area, but "Not in my Backyard" attitudes persist

Housing's importance to the overall health of the Bay Area economy was recognized by some 82 percent of those probed in the Bay Area Poll's in-depth section that focused on housing issues. Similarly, viewing housing as a business climate issue, 79 percent of the respondents recognize the connection between the cost of housing and attracting new workers to staff Bay Area businesses. At the same time, 78 percent agree that housing costs affect the ability of businesses to keep workers in the Bay Area.

One of the Bay Area Poll's most revealing findings was that 68 percent of respondents who said that they would be more inclined to support new housing in their local area if it was affordable for working people.

Two-thirds (65 percent) of those polled acknowledged there is a shortage of affordable housing in their own local area, and more than a majority (58 percent) of respondents said they support the encouragement of more housing in the Bay Area.

But despite this strong recognition of housing's importance to the region's economy, and acknowledgment of affordable housing shortages across the board, less than a majority (44 percent) support new housing in their own communities, while 48 percent said that new housing should be discouraged locally.

Of those who acknowledged there is a shortage of affordable housing for workers, 38 percent favored building single-family homes in their area to help relieve the shortage, followed by 10 percent or less (per category) who supported multi-unit housing such as condominiums, townhomes, rental apartments and in-law units, as solutions to the housing shortage.

The preference for single family homes, generally more costly than multiple units, was consistent across the Bay Area, except in San Francisco, where multi-unit housing is the norm.

"The lukewarm acceptance of attached housing that is generally more affordable for workers shows how hard it is to increase the supply of affordable housing in the Bay Area," said Helene Sahadi York, Bay Area Council vice president for housing programs and issues.

"What we see in this survey is the difficulty people have accepting new housing of any kind in their own local area," she said.

"The conflicting views about housing that surfaced in the Bay Area Poll highlight the continuing struggle that housing advocates, developers and community planners face as they attempt to ensure an improved supply of housing affordable to workers from across the spectrum," York noted.

"This is a crucial issue for people who want to live in housing of their first choice reasonably close to work, and for businesses that want to attract qualified workers and keep them here," she said. Confirming that premise, 48 percent of poll respondents indicated they had given some thought to leaving the Bay Area because of housing costs.

The Bay Area Poll found strong support for mitigation of various possible impacts of new housing, such as on public services, traffic, local schools, crime, the environment and property values. "These are the kinds of things that are addressed in the planning process, and through targeted local education in support of well-thought-out housing proposals," York concluded.

The Bay Area Poll is commissioned annually by the Bay Area Council, a business-sponsored public affairs organization advocating regional solutions to public policy issues affecting business climate, economic vitality, economic development, housing, transportation and related issues in the region. Founded in 1945, the council is made up of more than 200 member firms from the nine county Bay Area.

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Bay Area Poll Results:
What is the most important problem facing the Bay Area today?

1994 Ranking            1993 Ranking            1992 Ranking
---------------------   ---------------------   ---------------------
1. Crime          34%   1. Unemployment/        1. Unemployment/
                           Economy        32%      Economy        32%
2. Unemployment/        2. Crime          25%   2. Transportation 19%
   Economy        17%
3. Transportation 12%   3. Transportation 18%   3. Crime          11%
4. Education       7%   4. Homeless       10%   4. Pollution       7%
5. Homeless        5%   5. Schools/             5. Schools/
                           Education      6%       Education      7%
6. Overpopulation  5%   6. Overpopulation 6%    6. Homeless       7%



Numbers for Consumer and Business Confidence Trends

Consumer Confidence                    Business Confidence
-------------------                    -------------------
Percent of those polled who            Percent of those polled who
see better personal financial          see better times for business
times in the year ahead                in the year ahead

1988--45 percent                       1988--62 percent
1989--46 percent                       1989--59 percent
1990--37 percent                       1990--29 percent
1991--42 percent                       1991--44 percent
1992--33 percent                       1992--33 percent
1993--38 percent                       1993--41 percent
1994--43 percent                       1994--57 percent

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The information reported in this news release was gathered for the Bay Area Council's 1994 Bay Area Poll by Field Research Corporation, in a random survey of 600 residents of the nine-county San Francisco Bay Area, conducted Oct. 7 through Oct. 18, 1994.

CONTACT: Bay Area Council

Carol A. Eckert, 415/981-6600