Crime by the numbers.

Byline: Matt Cooper The Register-Guard

When a cop makes a bust for methamphetamine in Douglas County, the trail to the supplier consistently takes that cop one county to the north: Lane County.

That's where the big dealers are, said Lt. Curt Strickland, commander of the Douglas Interagency Narcotics Team - dealers who sell a pound or more of the stuff at a time - enough to provide a

Problem is, those dealers can't be lured to Douglas County for an arrest.

"They know they're safer up there than they are if they travel out," Strickland said. "And it's just because of lack of pressure."

Illegal drug use and alcohol abuse are at the heart of crime in Lane County, public safety officials say. They want voters on Nov. 7 to approve a countywide income tax to raise $27 million annually to fight drug abuse and all its effects.

But is the crime rate bad here? The answer is complicated.

Property crimes such as car theft and burglary are high. But violent crimes such as murder and aggravated assault are low. Rates for violent and property crime have dropped steadily here for nine years; but local officials, citing the latest numbers, say crime is now on the rise.

Voters will answer the question definitively in six weeks: Is crime in Lane County so severe that it merits a costly new tax?

Drug abuse

On Sept. 10, a Lane County sheriff's deputy happened upon a speeder in Springfield. During the arrest, the officer also found marijuana, ecstasy, scales, plastic bags and almost $6,000 in cash - all the trappings of a dealer.

"It's got to be weekly that these cases are happening," said Lt. Randy Smith, of the Lane County Sheriff's Office.

The rate of arrests for drug abuse in Lane County - possession, dealing, manufacturing and the like - was much higher than state and national rates between 1994 and 2002. Also, Lane's rate surged 46 percent during that period while the national and state rates held steady.

On the other hand, Lane's rate, which peaked in 2003 at 112 drug-abuse arrests per 10,000 adults, apparently dropped in each of the past two years, according to preliminary numbers. By comparison, the same preliminary numbers show that state and national rates climbed twice from 2002 through 2004, with the national rate cresting at 70 arrests per 10,000 adults, while the local rate had fallen to 108 per 10,000 adults by 2004.

It's important to note: Preliminary numbers have not yet been confirmed by the FBI, and may change for better or worse.

Numbers that won't change, however, show that between 1991 and 2003 Lane County's problem with drugs was more severe - and rose slightly faster - than the situation in a comparable county to the north, Marion, which includes the Salem area.

Lane saw a surge in drug-abuse offenses of 157 percent, while Marion suffered a 99 percent jump. Lane's rate in 2003 - 106 offenses per 10,000 in population - was much higher than Marion's 72 offenses per 10,000.

On the other hand, Lane County's problem with meth labs has dropped drastically.

Between 1998 and 2005, more methamphetamine labs were seized here - an average of 51 per year - than in any Oregon county except Multnomah.

But the number of lab seizures here plunged 85 percent over that period. Oregon State Police credit this to new state laws that fight the manufacturing of meth.

Violent crime

On June 20, three men abducted a man at gunpoint in Springfield, drove him to a forested area near Marcola, stole his wallet and jewelry, shot him and left him for dead. The sheriff's office had three detectives available, and they went into overdrive working leads.

Then five days later, an elderly man was killed in a bar fight near Eugene. At that point, said Smith, of the sheriff's office, his department had to pull officers from home and send supervisors chasing after leads in other states to handle both cases.

"Had we had another major case during that time frame, we might not have been able to work it," Smith said. "You've got to get your folks some rest."

Lane County and its cities have among the lowest number of officers per population of any county in Oregon, a state with the lowest officer ratio in the country, officials said.

Officials say a surge in violent crime is stretching the sheriff's office to the limit. But violent crime dropped steadily here for nine years through 2004, and it's difficult to say what the trend is now.

That's due, in part, to differences in the way local and federal officials count violent crimes. Lane County, for example, counts attempted crimes, such as attempted murder, while federal officials do not.

Lane public safety officials say violent crime is up, noting a 4 percent jump last year in serious offenses (homicide, rape, robbery and aggravated assault). But the FBI reported that the rate here continued a 10-year drop in 2005, to 25 such crimes per 10,000 people; the national rate was 47 per 10,000.

Meanwhile, the 2005 total for "crimes against people" in Lane County - homicide, rape, robbery, aggravated and simple assault, sex offenses and kidnapping - dropped 4.6 percent in 2005, according to local public safety data.

Public safety officials warn that serious violent crime is up sharply so far in 2006, but it's hard to say whether a long-term trend is emerging.

Property crime

On Aug. 25, a Noti-area resident who had just been burglarized called the sheriff's office with the name of a suspect and the pawn shop where his stereo speakers ended up. What have the police done?

Nothing. The county's sole property-crime detective is tied up with bigger cases. "Here's a chance to recover property and hold somebody accountable," Smith said, "but we can't get to it."

The rate of serious property crime here - motor vehicle theft, larceny-theft and burglary - dropped steadily between 1995 and 2004, then rose in 2005. That rate has been consistently above state and national rates.

Lane's property-crime rate compared poorly with similar-sized counties nationwide in 2005. The county's rate was worse than 97 percent of similar counties for motor vehicle theft, worse than 88 percent of the others for larceny-theft, and worse than 77 percent of the rest for burglary.

But compare the trends in Lane and Marion, and Lane doesn't look that bad.

Marion County's total property crime rate was higher than Lane's for a 12-year period ending in 2003. That year, Marion suffered 951 property crimes per 10,000; Lane, only 696 per 10,000.

Property crime here rose from 2004 to 2005, but that doesn't establish a long-term trend. The numbers for arson, forgery and stolen property were down, while the totals for serious property crimes - burglary, theft, and car theft - and the larger group of all property crimes were up 19 percent each.

Public reaction

Regardless of individual numbers, public safety officials say the big picture is bad and getting worse: Lane County's totals for violent and property crime in 2005 were higher than 89 percent of similar-sized counties nationwide, and up significantly from 2004, according to federal statistics quoted by local officials.

Nevertheless, officials face an uphill battle to convince voters that crime is up, the system is broken and an income tax is necessary.

In annual polls by the city of Eugene the past three years, the vast majority of residents have said they feel "very safe" or "somewhat safe" walking alone in neighborhoods and business areas after dark.

Also, 37 percent of respondents to a county poll in June characterized the public safety system as "good" or "excellent," and 46 percent said the system is "fair," meaning average. Just 11 percent said the system is in crisis.

Springfield resident Mike Gregory, 49, is among those who believe that crime is not that bad here. His house was burglarized years ago; if anything, Gregory said, crime "is less now than it was."

Gregory called "ludicrous" District Attorney Doug Harcleroad's recent prediction of a crime surge in 2006. "It was obviously just trying to sway the vote" for the income tax, Gregory said.

In fact, one county leader makes a point of distinguishing between violent crime and property crime in reference to the income-tax proposal.

"Most people, when they think of crime, they think of personal and violent crime," Commissioner Pete Sorenson said. "In that sense, the crime problem is a serious problem, but I don't think it rises to the level of a crisis.

"It's more a function of failing to deal with the persistent problem of drug abuse and the long lines to get people rehabilitated," he added. "To me, that's the reason for this (income tax) measure."