Could the northwest secede and succeed?

Northwestern Ontario has had a long history of feeling neglected by the decision-makers at Queen's Park. Even with good local political representation, the feeling of alienation from the centre has been increasingly gaining strength, culminating in calls to secede from the Province of Ontario and join Manitoba. These recent calls have come from a variety of well-respected sources, which makes one wonder if there would be some merit in contemplating such a move.

This article will review a recent paper written by Livio di Matteo, Department of Economics at Lakehead University, J.C. Herbert Emery and Ryan English from the Department of Economics at Calgary University. It is soon to be published in the Canadian Public Policy Academic Journal. The paper analyzes the costs and benefits of joining the province of Manitoba, obtaining provincial status, or forming a regional government.

Joining Manitoba

Northwestern Ontario had a population of 234,771 in 2001 which was just over two per cent of Ontario's total, while its land area comprises 58 per cent of Ontario's total geography. Joining Manitoba would mean a very small loss of population but a large loss of land mass for the province of Ontario. Who would gain from such a move, then? It seems that at the present time, Ontario does provide a net subsidy to the north of about $1,026 per capita, which Manitoba may not be able to pick up without a federal equalization payment. Joining Manitoba would provide the North with a greater voice in the provincial legislature, lower electricity rates, and being closer to the provincial capital of Winnipeg, hopefully translate into increased spending on many government programs.

Obtaining Provincial Status

In this scenario, the main question is: "Does Northwestern Ontario have the necessary tax base to sustain a reasonable level of government services?" The study shows that its tax base would be similar to Manitoba and Atlantic provinces, and probably qualify for federal transfer payments. Another advantage would be the control over its own legislature and public policies. On the other hand, would Ontario be willing to part with 60 per cent of its land mass, especially in the absence of an overwhelming political call for another province.

The case for regional government

This option would seem to be the most workable given that Ontario has already provided the city of Toronto with greater powers. Regional government for the northwest and the North in general would help end Ontario's "Northern problem" by transferring decision-making power and responsibility to the people most affected and enable them to make the decisions that are in their best long-term interest. As the authors of the study clearly state: "This is a realistic option for dealing with the North's concerns and can be explored as an alternative to options such as joining Manitoba or provincial status."

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Conclusion

The first two options seem complex and costly given that it would involve at least the two provinces and the Northwest region. Equalization payments would also require the cooperation of the other provinces, therefore contributing to the complexity of any negotiations. Ultimately it would come down to the will and political power of those affected the most. Given the cost-benefit analyses presented in the paper, the best option for Northwestern Ontario would appear to be a move towards regional government. Is Queen's Park listening?

Frank Pullia is the Principal of Pullia Accounting & Consulting and a former Councillor. He can be reached at [phone] or via e-mail at [e-mail]