Could the October surprise happen again?

Could the October Surprise happen again? There is considerable buzz among former intelligence officers that an overseas crisis is being engineered or allowed to explode. The spinning of the Georgia incident to create a faux conflict with Russia is a harbinger of things to come. As one officer puts it, how else might one plausibly explain so many otherwise manageable international situations being allowed to turn confrontational so close to the election? The deliberately provocative build-up of naval forces in the Persian Gulf and Black Sea; reports in the European media that an attack on Iran is imminent; the visit of Dick Cheney to Georgia and Ukraine; massive aid to rearm Tbilisi; and the launching of the first U.S. ground forces attacks inside Pakistan--all of this could have been deferred until after the election. The potential for a serious international crisis during the next 60 days has increased dramatically. And John McCain is clearly reading the tea leaves, not hesitating to stir the pot with increasingly harsh rhetoric targeting Russia. There is growing belief among intelligence officers that an incident will either be manufactured or allowed to occur to strengthen the electoral prospects of the Republicans' "national security" candidate. Few believe that the ethically challenged Bush administration would hesitate to engineer its own Gulf of Tonkin to guarantee a GOP victory.

The original October Surprise started with a rogue operation by the CIA chiefs of station in Madrid, Paris, and Rome, all classmates in the Operations Directorate who had come up together in Africa and the Middle East. In the summer of 1980, they arranged a series of secret meetings between Reagan's campaign manager, Bill Casey, and Iranian representatives that led to an Iranian agreement not to release the American hostages they were holding, guaranteeing electoral defeat for the hapless Jimmy Carter. But no one believes that a 2008 surprise would again involve the CIA, which has been purged and brought to heel to such an extent that any independent action is unimaginable. Look instead to the still well-entrenched neocons operating out of the office of Vice President Cheney. Their hopes for the future ride on a McCain victory.

Philip Giraldi, a former CIA Officer, is a fellow at the American Conservative Defense Alliance.