Cote d'Ivoire: still sitting in limbo; After almost five years of economic hardship and political instability, the wait for peace is not yet over in Cote d'Ivoire. Josephine Akarue reports from Abidjan.

Patience is wearing thin. But fears that the Ivorian political situation would spiral out of control after the expiration of President Laurent Gbabgo's mandate on 31 October, has so far turned out to be just that: fears. Now weeks after the panic buying and mounting tension, Ivorians have once again settled into another round of the wait for real peace to return to the beleaguered country. With the increasing cost of living, most Ivorians are beginning to say: "We are tired of being used as pawns." According to a small scale entrepreneur: "All this talk and consultation is taking us nowhere. The president knows what to do and is simply playing on time."

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Ironically, President Gbagbo has said that he would not fully apply UN Resolution 1721, outlining a peace plan unanimously adopted in November. In a state broadcast, he warned that "attacks still in the text of the resolution and which constitute violations of the [Ivorian] constitution will not be applied". He did not give details.

While political watchers are divided on the underlying meaning of the president's speech, the consensus is that the nation would be plunged into further crisis if the latest plan for true reconciliation was derailed.

In his broadcast, Gbagbo said if the national constitution needed any change, Ivorians were capable of doing so without consulting the international community, He also announced a three-week consultation with various groups and religious bodies in the country "to find a way out of the crises", a plan which the opposition has dismissed as a circus.

"What we are witnessing today is the beginning of another round of political masquerading," said a political analyst. "All these are a plain drain on our resources and time. If we had the solutions ourselves, the international community would not have intervened in the first place."

Expectedly, Charles Konan Banny, the prime minister, has promised to uphold Resolution 1721 which grants him additional powers. In a national address, he said he was ready to apply the resolution. "I'm ready to take my responsibilities and fully execute the mission that has been conferred upon me with the support of everyone," he said.

Recognising that he could face stiff opposition, he added: "This resolution represents to me, a new and ultimate charter for all Ivorians, a charter that will lead to real peace. It is paradoxical, dangerous and even irresponsible for us to refuse to honour what the superpowers have voted as a way out of our crises."

The stage is thus set for what many see as a confrontation with Gbagbo. In principle, to stem the deterioration of the political situation, the UN Security Council has approved the extension of the transitional government with Gbagbo as president for another one, and final, year. The same resolution strengthened Banny's mandate to give him control of the security forces and all the necessary financial, material and human resources to implement the peace plan. Like Resolution 1633, voted last year, the prime minister is to organise disarmament, voters' identification and the restoration of state authority nationwide. He is also expected to prepare presidential and legislative elections as well as restructure the army.

The UN vote came on 1 November, a day later than expected, after four countries--China, Russia, the US and Tanzania--disagreed over the fine details of the French proposal, which they argued impinged on Ivorian sovereignty.

Unlike the original proposal, the amended resolution does not empower the prime minister to appoint civilian or military officials. It also expunged a controversial article which made the Security Council's decision supersede the Ivorian constitution.

Still, the resolution requires full compliance by all Ivorian parties and that no legal provisions should be invoked by them to obstruct the process. Even so, fears that Resolution 1721 will create problems in its implementation remain real. Banny's critics claim that his problem is not the lack of adequate powers, but the willpower to execute his mandate.

Richard Dacoury, of the Young Patriotic Alliance, says: "The former resolution gave the prime minister the powers to carry out disarmament and voters identification, how much of that did he achieve in the last year? Resolution 1721 may be good for the presidential camp and for the president of the Republic. But from an intellectual viewpoint, it is ambiguous. Here is a text which does not suspend the Ivorian constitution and yet empowers the prime minister to take decisions through ordinances and decrees, an act which is contrary to the Ivorian constitution. Herein lies the problem."

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According to Dacoury, the resolution is unrealistic and inapplicable on the grounds that when a president is given an extended mandate, he takes along the powers which go with the office. Simply put, as long as Gbagbo remains president and commander-in-chief of the armed forces, he holds all the rights and privileges which go with his office.

For Dacoury, the resolution is simply another ploy of President Jacques Chirac's government in Paris to remove Gbagbo from power through all means. "If Banny insists on implementing all aspects of Resolution 1721 to defy President Gbagbo, there will be dire consequences," Dacoury warned.

Not everyone shares these views, though. An officer of the UN who prefers anonymity, says even the president's extended mandate is extra-juridical. The Ivorian constitution allows a five-year mandate for the president. Since his election in October 2000, Gbabgo's mandate (which officially ended in October 2005) has been extended twice. The UN officer says he finds it curious that those who are quick to refer to the constitution also conveniently ignore this point.

Even the argument that Article 40 of the Ivorian constitution allows for continuation of the presidential mandate in the event where elections do not hold, has been given various interpretations. The opposition interprets it as "if elections do not go normally". One opposition member asked: "There has not even been an election, so how do you apply that article which says if elections do not go normally?'

But Laurent Fologo, former secretary general of the Democratic Party (PDCI) and now president of an economic and reconciliation group, insists that the constitution is clear on this issue. The president can only hand over power to another elected president and as long as the elections do not hold, he remains in office.

Gbagbo's critics, however, believe that he has always put up obstacles to ensure that the elections do not hold and so entrench himself in power. An analyst puts it thus: "Gbagbo has only been pretending to flow along with the international community. In reality, he has not shown any desire to respect any of the resolutions or accords. He has always been the one dictating the script."

For Aubrey Hooks, the American ambassador to Cote d'Ivoire, the Ivorian constitution is sacred. He says the resolution is not to replace the constitution but to create the enabling environment for resolving the crises. He says: "The issue is not whether to uphold the constitution or the resolution. It is to implement the resolution in the spirit of the constitution."

Whatever the meaning, the next few months are going to be quite interesting. Meanwhile, Djedje Mady, president of the Rassemblement d'Houphouetists pour la Democratie et la Paix (RHDP), comprising the Republicans (RDR), Democrats (PDCI), and two other parties, says what is essential at this stage is the application of the resolution: "Without its application, the resolution, like previous ones, will be null."

Beyond the issue of the application of the resolution, religious groups in the country have collectively called for the disarmament of the rebels as a way out of the crises. According to Celestin Koffi, a reverend of the Evangelical Church: "The evangelic community of Cote d'Ivoire is demanding an immediate disarmament as a top priority to reduce the sufferings of Ivorians." He also asked for the setting up of a Truth and Reconciliation Commission to be led by religious leaders.

Koffi's view is shared by the leader of the National Islamic Council, Imam Mamadou Dosso. "It is imperative for peace that all political actors disarm to enable voters identification to be organised without harassment," he has said.

The Ivorian crisis first broke out on 19 September 2002. The opposition has since mellowed from its hard stance of rejecting the one-year extension of Gbabgo's mandate.

Although the country remains divided between a government-controlled South and a rebel-held North, with an estimated 11,000 UN and French peacekeepers in the middle, the people are tired of the seemingly endless crisis and are beginning to seek real peace. Even Banny has consistently maintained that his mandate is to uphold peace. The crux is: Will Ivorians agree on a single way out?