Costly HDTV soon to arrive, but do consumers care?

High-definition television makes its much-ballyhooed debut on four L.A. stations next month, ushering television into the digital era. with sharper pictures, CD-quality sound and, eventually, interactivity on your television.

But amid the hype, skepticism abounds.

The FCC-mandated shift from traditional analog to digital television is uncoordinated and very expensive. An industry-wide high- definition standard has not yet been set, cable companies are dragging their feet about carrying a digital signal, and HDTV sets are not yet available across the nation.

Moreover, industry estimates project that the networks will be forced to lay out some $16 billion, and consumers $150 billion, to keep pace with this digital revolution - a revolution that some fear consumers never wanted in the first place.

"It's a farce, with most people involved very cynical about its success," said David Card, an analyst with Jupiter Communications. "We believe that the government is going to end up changing its mind and extending the trial period beyond the 2006 deadline" - that is, when all of the nation's TV stations are mandated to cease analog broadcasts in favor of digital technology.

In November, 42 stations nationwide will begin digital transmissions - including, in Los Angeles, KABC-TV Channel 7, KCBS-TV Channel 2. KNBC-TV Channel 4 and KTLA- TV Channel 5. But even the few households that actually can receive HDTV are not going to have a whole lot to see.

ABC kicks off with "101 Dalmatians" on the "Wonderful World of Disney" slot next month; CBS will air three NFL games in December and January; and NBC will start with the "Late Show with Jay Leno" in the first half of next year. Fox said it will digitally broadcast some sports events, but has not said when. All programs broadcast digitally will be broadcast simultaneously in analog.

"All you'll see on our digital signal on Nov. 1 is a slightly, crisper version of what is currently there," said Steve Blue, director of operations and engineering at KCBS. "I won't even speculate about when we'll move to more HD programming. I'm not sure how well the consumers will be served at the beginning."

Each affiliate station is investing between $2 million and $4 million in upgrades. Local stations have had to set up new broadcast equipment on Mt. Wilson, new digital equipment in the studio, and even redesigned sound stages that accommodate HDTV's wider, but shorter, screen. As is common with new technologies, the hardware's price tag has been far higher than originally projected.

"This is extraordinarily expensive," said Jim Powell, vice president of entertainment production operations at KNBC. "You pay the price to go first."

Powell and his counterparts are concerned that stations cannot afford the investment, especially at a time when they already are struggling with declining audiences and tightened budgets.

"There's been too much expenditure, more than expected," said Dave Converse, director of engineering at KABC. "The funding comes in part from our parent company, but each station is responsible for its bottom line. I assume we have to make a business plan work."

But few consumers are expected to purchase a $7,000 television set or a $2,000 converter box. International Data Corp projects that 100,000 U.S. households will have some sort of HDTV reception by 1999 increasing to 2 million by 2000 and 13 million by 2002. That's still a fraction of the estimated 100 million U.S. households with televisions.

While analysts expect the adoption rate to pick up, it's unlikely to reach the 85 percent penetration rate the FCC wants by 2006, the scheduled termination date for analog television signals.

"This will be a slow, possibly painful, rollout," said Kevin Hause, senior analyst at IDC. "The biggest danger is of confusing the consumer to the point that they walk away. The manufacturers and the television stations will have to work to prevent that from happening."

The slow adoption rate presents a Catch-22 for stations. Executives say they are hesitant to move forward with HDTV until there is an audience. But without HDTV content, an audience is not likely to materialize.

"It's difficult to justify the added expense for such a small audience, so we're taking a wait-and-see stance on some aspects of HDTV," said Preston Davis, president of broadcast operations and engineering for the ABC Television Network Group. "We just hope that the consumers will find something they want to watch enough to justify our efforts."

Television production companies, which provide the programming that stations broadcast, face considerable expense to accommodate the heightened clarity of the new format. Make-up, wardrobe, and backdrops will have to become more realistic, and sets will have to be redesigned for a wider format.

Because HDTV programming remains years away, no cost analysis has yet been done. But production company executives say they likely will be forced to bump up their prices to cover additional expenses.

Ed Lammi, executive vice president of production for Columbia Tristar Television in Culver City, said his team added 4-foot extensions to the set of "The Nanny" so the wider camera will not pick up backstage activity. Columbia Tristar, which is owned by HDTV set manufacturer Sony Corp., is one of the few production companies already planning for high-definition demands.

"The networks haven't asked yet about HDTV shows, which surprised me," Lammi said. "But we have digital masters in the vault and are ready to negotiate."