Costello's latest bouts of self-harm.

If the Coalition loses the next federal election, every government in Australia will be a Labor government, not a cheering prospect if one believes that a country's political life is healthier for the odd check and balance. John Howard has shown he is adept at working within a variety of checks and balances while still, for the most part, getting his own way; and when he can't get his way he at least behaves in a dignified and stoical manner, for example whenever two or three Coalition members make it clear they are prepared to cross the floor of the Senate on some measure of which they disapprove, such as the recent asylum-seeker legislation. Mr Howard has a generally good working relationship with the Labor state premiers, and his diplomatic skills in this regard are self-evident.

On the other hand Mr Costello, who has generally done a good job as Treasurer (though see John Stone's analysis of the latest Costello budget, in this issue), has shown himself less than adroit in his manipulation of the political environment. An excellent example is his recent handling of the "revelations" of former Government minister Ian McLachlan regarding Mr Howard's purported "agreement" with Mr Costello many years ago, when the Liberals were still in Opposition, that Mr Howard would only serve two terms as prime minister and promptly hand over to Mr Costello (as if the party room would tolerate being denied any say in the matter).

Try to imagine the scene. Mr Costello says to Mr Howard, back in the mid-1990s, "I'm not sure I can support you for Opposition Leader--let me put it bluntly, I myself want to become prime minister, as soon as possible". Mr Howard replies, "I see. Well, I respect your forthrightness. Actually, I agree with you, you should be prime minister, Peter, but I don't think you're quite ready for that yet, are you? However, if you give me your support now, and later I become the prime minister, then in return I give you this cast-iron guarantee, that I will serve just two terms, then step down, and you can be prime minister, on my say-so, and no-one will dare throw their hat into the ring--I guarantee that too. And all this I solemnly promise on my word of honour."

Many years later, in mid-2006, Mr McLachlan makes his "revelation" and Mr Costello at once confirms it. "Yes, that was the solemn promise--the prime ministership, which as everyone knows is in the gift of the prime minister of the day, was solemnly promised to me way back then and not delivered. I never said anything when the date of agreed delivery passed with nothing happening, but I was very sore about it, and now I'm absolutely fed up with all this waiting. He promised!" Well, words to that effect.

No doubt because he is so sore about it, Mr Costello now goes into spoiling mode, which seems increasingly to be his "default position". In his own state of Victoria an election looms. The new Liberal leader, Mr Ted Baillieu, will be launching his campaign within a very few months. He will then have his first real chance to display his leadership credentials. But never mind about waiting to see how Mr Baillieu performs in the first few days of the campaign--Mr Costello proceeds to undermine him right now, on no sufficient evidence that Baillieu lacks anything as a leader.

In a country where the Liberal Party desperately needs to swing at least one state its way, Mr Costello sets out to lengthen the odds against a Liberal victory in his own state of Victoria, at a point when in any case there is no time to change the Victorian Liberal leadership once again. It is an extraordinary action that reveals the level of pique and animus (not even self-serving, just instinctual and quite self-destructive) that drives Mr Costello, for Costello epitomises the driven man--to use a cliche that in this case fits perfectly--driven by (he says) "the desire to serve Australia", but more obviously by a self-blinding, self-harming arrogance, and a self-reducing petulance.

Although most Australians respect Costello's achievements as Treasurer, with regard to the Liberal leadership he has become a laughing-stock, the worst fate that can befall a would-be leader. Mr Howard has displayed remarkable restraint in the face of this sort of thing, when he has a very handy rottweiler in the shape of Malcolm Turnbull who could be given the nod at any time to inflict damage.