Copper Cable Far From Dead in Premises Applications, Says ABI.

Business/Technology Editors

OYSTER BAY, N.Y.--(BUSINESS WIRE)--March 22, 2000

Despite the buzz surrounding all things fiber optic, the heralded demise of copper wire in premises networks is premature. While fiber optic cable will represent an increasing share of the US premises cabling market, there will still be a very healthy market for copper wire. Fiber optic cabling will command just under 30% of the US premises cabling market in 2005 in dollar value, growing at a projected compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 25% between 1998 and 2005. By comparison, though copper wire will grow at a slower CAGR of 15%, it will still retain approximately 64% of the market in 2005.

According to Navin Sabharwal, a Senior Analyst for Allied Business Intelligence, the overall US premises cable and wire market is projected to grow from $1.9 billion in 1999 to $4.7 billion by year-end 2005.

A recently published report by Allied Business Intelligence (ABI), titled "Premises Wire & Cable: Fiber Optic, Copper Twisted Pair and Coax LAN Markets," indicates one of the two key enablers to the growth in the premises market will be the continuing need for bandwidth capacity to deal with broadband and corporate communications. The other demand driver will be the emergence of Gigabit Ethernet, which will increasingly create a real demand by network planners to upgrade their networks to run a transmission protocol that provides more future-proofing. In particular the ratification of the IEEE 803.3ab standard for Gigabit Ethernet over unshielded twisted pair (UTP) will improve the ability of copper wire to maintain its stranglehold on the horizontal wiring segment of the premises network.

The report examines the US and international markets for the various types of communications wire and cable in light of demand created by bandwidth-intensive applications. The report breaks down the market into three primary areas: copper wire and cable, fiber optic cable and coaxial cable. These areas are then broken down into secondary categories.

In particular there is considerable interest in the adoption of Category 5 Enhanced and Category 6 copper wire. These copper cables will run virtually every existing transmission protocol, including Gigabit Ethernet, with margin to spare. ABI predicts that newer categories of copper wire -- Category 5 Enhanced, Category 6 and Category 7 -- will account for 96% of the total US premises copper wire market in dollar value, up from a mere 36% in 1999.

Allied Business Intelligence, Inc., is an Oyster Bay, NY-based technology research think tank publishing strategic research on the broadband, wireless, electronics, automation, energy and transportation industries. Details of these studies can be found at www.alliedworld.com. or by calling 516-624-3113.