Conversion survey 1999: global disarmament, demilitarization and demobilization.

Conversion Survey 1999 : Global Disarmament, Demilitarization and Demobilization, Bonn International Center for Conversion, Nomos Verlagsgesellschaft, Baden-Baden, 1999, 180 pages, softcover, ISBN 3-7890-6068-2.

Conversion Survey 1999 is the fourth annual review of global disarmament and conversion published by Germany's Bonn International Center for Conversion (BICC). Like earlier editions, the 1999 survey reports on disarmament developments in six key issue areas: military expenditures and their reallocation; reorientation of military research and development; restructuring and conversion of the defence industry; demobilization and reintegration; base closure and redevelopment; and surplus weapons and their disposal. A special additional chapter in this edition reports on "best practices for military base redevelopment in transitional and developing countries."

The overall conclusions of the survey are positive. The post-Cold War disarmament trend has slowed significantly, and in some cases reversed, in recent years, but on the whole disarmament and conversion progress continues to be made. "Behind the noisy headlines of the many conflicts [of recent years], there exists a string of positive, often silent achievements. Clearly, in total, the 1990s balance sheet of disarmament and conversion is positive."

Among other findings, the Center reports that "In absolute figures, [global] military expenditures fell from a peak of more than US $1030 billion in 1987 in an unbroken trend to US $683 billion in 1996 (in prices of 1993). BICC recorded a further slight decrease in 1997 to US $680 billion." This good news is tempered, however, by the Center's conclusion that such reductions "have come to a halt; even increases in spending seem possible in the near future."

The number of personnel in uniform, on the other hand, continues to drop steadily. "After the Cold War peak of a total of 28.8 million, the number was brought down to 22.0 million military personnel in 1997." This reduction has been even more dramatic in per capita terms. "In 1987 there were 5.7 soldiers worldwide per thousand people. In 1997, this statistic was down to 3.7 per thousand."

The Conversion Survey series does not replace Ruth Leger Sivard's World Military and Social Expenditures series (of which the most recent edition is 1996). BICC's publication is a slower read, with a much more academic orientation, and it lacks the social comparisons that are such a prominent and valuable feature of Sivard's series. But it does fill some of the same need for solid statistical data on military spending and conversion developments (and it adds a considerably greater depth of background information and analysis).

Of particular interest is the Center's Conversion, Disarmament, Demilitarization and Demobilization (BIC3D) Index, which combines data on military spending, holdings of selected weapons systems, armed forces personnel, and employment in arms production to provide a statistical measure of national and global progress in disarmament. The 1997 BIC3D Index value for the world is 29, meaning that these sectors shrank an average of 29 per cent worldwide between the end of the Cold War and 1997. Canada's Index value is 24, below the world average but slightly ahead of the NATO average of 23.