Converging products, expanding supply chain: change is demanded to head off further commoditization and ensure future innovation.

The iNEMI Roadmap 2007 edition will be available this month, providing a more global perspective than any previous iteration. During this roadmap cycle, we consciously targeted participation from key organizations in Asia and Europe to help ensure that the technology projections truly represent a global view. As a result, more than 500 individuals from 265 companies, consortia, government agencies and universities located in 17 countries on four continents contributed to this roadmap. We also continued our strong links with other international roadmapping organizations, such as ITRS, IPC, IEEE/CPMT, IMAPS, INSIC, JIEP, SCC and OIDA.

The roadmap covers 19 technology and infrastructure areas (FIGURE 1) and five product sectors (TABLE 1), identifying future research, development and implementation needs required for the worldwide electronics industry to grow.

[FIGURE 1 OMITTED]

The commodity phase. The electronics industry has matured to the point that many product segments are now in the commodity phase of their lifecycles. Accordingly, breakthrough technology may no longer be sufficient to ensure business success. Customers are demanding the right solution at the right cost from winning enterprises. This maturation drives a series of business behaviors quite different from the past.

The industry is completing a major restructuring, moving the center of manufacturing competence from OEMs to EMS providers and ODMs. The increasing scope of outsourced operations requires loosely coupled business processes spanning multiple companies. This changing business model has led to significant shifts in roles and responsibilities across the supply chain, and to a shortage of manufacturing R&D, which could precede a slowdown in growth.

At the same time, dramatic movement of manufacturing and manufacturing support to China from North America, Europe and other Asian countries has been prompted by a low-cost, highly skilled workforce and a massive market opportunity. This migration of capabilities is far from over, as we see increased activity in countries such as Vietnam and India, for example. While local presence is often a benefit for meeting unique market requirements, local decision-making is also useful to respond quickly and decisively. This can strain overall enterprise investment resources and can lead to duplication of effort or lower ROI.

Increasing regulation. Legislation impacting manufacturing and recycling is being enacted throughout the world. Manufacturers are being required to remove materials of concern, such as lead, from their products, which means they must adapt product designs and convert manufacturing processes, often at considerable cost. Manufacturers are also required to share detailed material content data of their products and components, which is especially challenging given the increasingly distributed nature of the supply chain and the proliferation of unique green requirements from OEMs.

Product convergence. The boundaries between computers, communications and entertainment products are blurring. Large, flat panel displays continue to experience rapid growth and lower cost. Wireless products, particularly WiFi and Bluetooth, are now widely used, and digital cameras are standard in cellphones.

Home and office capabilities are being added to automotive products. RFID systems are used for security and increasing commerce efficiency. Telecom and datacom infrastructure needs are converging. With the move to all-digital communications and storage, we see a number of markets converging: medical-consumer, automotive-entertainment, communication-entertainment and computing-entertainment.

Technology reverberations. The projected end of traditional semiconductor scaling continues to generate significant reverberations in approaches and structures of computing systems. The first consequence is the gradual but certain reduction of emphasis on the microprocessor frequency metric, and the corresponding increase in importance of the system's throughput metric. This shift in system performance will generate an increased demand for higher bandwidth to and from the microprocessor. Another consequence of the expected demise of traditional semiconductor scaling is the increased need for improved cooling and operating junction temperature reduction due to large leakage currents and an increase in chip power.

Unlike previous editions, the 2007 Roadmap does not identify a major need for optical transmission within high-performance PCBs during the next decade. In earlier editions, for example, it appeared that optoelectronics would be used in high-performance PCBs, but that hasn't happened because of the improving performance of the traditional technology. (Creative use of copper traces and dielectrics continues to be able to meet product needs at much lower cost.)

More attention is being focused on the user experience with products. Displays still represent one of the primary ways people interface with their electronics systems. LCD and plasma displays are taking over the CRT market, while OLED (organic LED) has the promise of providing thin, lightweight--even roll-up--display technology that could compete with LCDs and make wearable electronics prolific.

Data requirements continue to grow at a rapid clip, driven by consumer and Internet demands, creating an ongoing desire for density and performance improvements for data storage. A number of alternative approaches to today's established data storage technologies are expected to develop during the next decade. These include magnetic random access memory (MRAM), probe-based, molecular, fluorescent multilayer optical, near-field optical and 3D holographic storage components and systems.

The 2007 iNEMI Roadmap identifies needs and trends in several areas. Many of these trends already affect electronics manufacturing and the way it does business, while others could have significant impact in the near future. Highlights of some of these trends are discussed next.

Design technologies. Through several cycles, the iNEMI Roadmap has warned that design and simulation tools are the main roadblocks to more rapid introduction of new technologies by OEMs and ODMs. If anything, this situation has worsened with the increased OEM focus on time-to-market and the complexity of emerging technologies and products. The industry needs significant development and investment in design tool infrastructure, with increased R&D in the following areas:

* Mechanical and reliability modeling.

* Co-design of mechanical, thermal and electrical performance of the entire chip, package and associated heat removal structures.

* Simulation tools for nano-devices and materials.

* Improved design tools for emerging technologies, such as embedded passives and optoelectronic PCBs.

* Integrated design and simulation tools for RF modules and devices.

* Electronics manufacturing simulation and modeling tools for the designer.

* EMS providers need standard design tools for manufacturability, test and assembly to increase manufacturing productivity and reduce costs.

Manufacturing technologies. With R&D responsibility shifting from OEMs, government, academia and industry consortia need to formulate new ways to adopt and develop emerging technologies (such as nanotechnology) into the manufacturing process. These approaches will have to be consistent with viable business and funding models required to create new industrial infrastructures. Without methodologies to conduct R&D in a distributed environment, new technologies such as those listed below will experience protracted development delays or will not reach maturity and wide-scale deployment. Two major strategic needs drive the roadmap's recommendations in manufacturing technologies: the miniaturization of products and the need for simplified, next-generation assembly processes. Development, then, is needed in areas such as:

* Process development, to accelerate miniaturization such as automated printing, dispensing, placement and rework equipment capable of very fine pitch requirements.

* Advanced board assembly processes that support 3D structures and low-temperature processing.

* Demonstration of the application of low-temperature and room-temperature attachment technologies to SMT assembly, including biomimetic-based dry adhesive technology.

* Creative test methodologies that lead to lower testing costs, particularly for new non-digital technologies.

* New approaches to organic substrate fabrication that address needs for dramatic increases in density, reduced process variability, improved electrical performance and radical reductions in cost.

The electronics industry faces many challenges in the decade ahead. The changing industry structure, with its shift in roles and responsibilities, has serious ramifications for investments in manufacturing R&D, and we must find ways to ensure continued development, or face slowdowns. We must address technology gaps in critical areas such as active device technology, thermal management, communications bandwidth, next-generation packaging technology (miniaturization), design and simulation tools, and science-based environmental improvements. Creating product markets with social value will help drive growth in areas such as energy, healthcare and security.

In the year ahead, iNEMI will turn attention to mining the 2007 Roadmap to understand where industry collaboration can begin to address these challenges for the benefit of all.

Ed.: The 2007 iNEMI Roadmap will begin shipping March 5. For ordering information, visit inemi.org/cms/roadmapping/ roadmaporder.html.

This is a summary of the article written by Jim McElroy. The article can be viewed in its entirety at pcdandm. com/cms/content/view/3304

JIM McELROY is CEO of the International Electronics Manufacturing Initiative (iNEMI) (inemi.org); [e-mail].

TABLE 1. 2007 iNEMI roadmap product emulators.

EMULATORS                CHARACTERISTICS

Portable/consumer        High-volume consumer products for which cost
                         is the primary driver, including handheld,
                         battery-powered products driven by size and
                         weight reduction

Office/large business/   Products that seek maximum performance and
communication systems    cost from a few thousand dollars to no limit

Medical products         Products that must operate within a highly
                         reliable environment

Automotive               Products that must operate in an automotive
                         environment

Defense and aerospace    Products that must operate in extreme
                         environments