Contrary to popular opinion: in the stock market, Hamilton Lewis likes to take a different route. (Private Screening).Houston money manager Hamilton Lewis doesn't necessarily advocate going with the crowd. Instead, he prefers to see what the majority of investors are doing and then to take an opposite tactic. The 19-year veteran of the markets, who started as a stockbroker for Merrill Lynch Merrill Lynch & Co., Inc. (NYSE: MER TYO: 8675 ), through its subsidiaries and affiliates, provides capital markets services, investment banking and advisory services, wealth management, asset management, insurance, banking and related products and services on a global basis. and later launched his own firm, Hamilton Lewis Capital Management, in 1991, says, "I like to pay attention to where the market is, and what direction it's taking. That alone accounts for about 30% of my success." Next, he scans industry groups to see which sectors have fallen from favor. Choosing industries that will rebound well, he estimates, accounts for another 50% of his success. Lewis, 43, who invests some $25 million for his high-net-worth clientele, often focuses on downtrodden down·trod·den adj. Oppressed; tyrannized. downtrodden Adjective oppressed and lacking the will to resist Adj. 1. industries. "I like to come in on the low end of a stock's cycle, when buyers are depressed, and news reports for the company are ugly," he says. "That gives us the potential for greater upside." To measure the mood of the market, Lewis turns to the CBOE Volatility Index CBOE Volatility Index See VIX Index. (VIX VIX The implied volatility on the S&P 100 (OEX) option. This volatility is meant to be a forward looking volatility. It is calculated from both calls and puts that are near the money. The VIX is a popular measure of market risk. ), which is compiled by the Chicago Board of Exchange. It gauges how optimistic institutional investors feel about the market by their purchases of options contracts. Typically the VIX has drifted, ranging from 18 on the low end (an indication that investors feel quite optimistic about stocks) to 50 at the high end (at times when a pessimistic mood looms over the market). Lewis says individual investors can track the CBOE CBOE See: Chicago Board Options Exchange CBOE See Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE). by going online to www.cboe.com and clicking on a heading titled "market quotes." As of mid-January, the CBOE was 26 to 27, a sign that investors felt relatively good about their prospects, even with war and a dragging economy making headlines. Lewis believes the optimism might be inflated, a signal that the market might be primed for a fall. Early in January, Lewis had his sights on retail stocks, which were reeling from the weak economy. Consequently, his first two Private Screening picks are Home Depot The Home Depot (NYSE: HD) is an American retailer of home improvement and construction products and services. Headquartered in Vinings, just outside Atlanta in unincorporated Cobb County, Georgia, Home Depot employs more than 355,000 people and operates 2,164 big-box (NYSE NYSE See: New York Stock Exchange : HD) and Best Buy (NYSE: BBY BBY Best Buy (stock symbol) BBY Before Battle of Yavin (Star Wars) BBY BeBeyond (Chinese online community) ). Home Depot still has a commanding presence in the fix-it-up market, even after reporting lackluster earnings. Lewis expects the stock to bounce back from about $20 a share to $35 a share in the next 12 to 18 months. Electronics seller Best Buy, meanwhile, also suffered with its retail peers, dropping from $50 a share to a little less than $20 during 2002. Lewis thinks the company remains sound and will quite possibly return to $45 a share in the next 12 to 18 months. Generic pharmaceuticals maker Barr Laboratories (NYSE: BRL BRL In currencies, this is the abbreviation for the Brazilian Real. Notes: The currency market, also known as the Foreign Exchange market, is the largest financial market in the world, with a daily average volume of over US $1 trillion. ) is another of Lewis' rebound candidates. After languishing lan·guish intr.v. lan·guished, lan·guish·ing, lan·guish·es 1. To be or become weak or feeble; lose strength or vigor. 2. in 2002, new drugs in the company's pipeline should boost revenues and return its stock to $120 a share. Lucent Technologies (NYSE: LU), a stock that has fallen from the top tier of technology firms to below $1.00 a share, could also recover slightly. Lewis says the company's cost-cutting and attention to margins could send its stock up to $1.75 a share in the next 12 to 18 months. Finally, Symantec (Nasdaq: SYMC SYMC Symantec Corporation (stock symbol) ) doesn't fit the profile of Lewis' other choices. The company is coming off of a strong 2002, but Lewis thinks Symantec's antivirus software See antivirus program. (tool) antivirus software - Programs to detect and remove computer viruses. The simplest kind scans executable files and boot blocks for a list of known viruses. will continue to be a hit. He looks for the stock to reach $67 a share in the next 12 to 18 months.
Hamilton Lewis' Private Screening Picks
12- to Est. 5-Yr.
Company 18-Month P/E Projected Annual EPS
Exchange: Symbol Price * Price Target 2003 Earnings Growth Rate
Home Depot $22.43 $35 13.9 15.6
NYSE: HD
Best Buy 27.70 45 15.3 18.0
NYSE: BBY
Symantec 45.05 67 26.3 17.2
Nasdaq: SYMC
Lucent Technologies 1.64 1.75 N/A 13.1
NYSE: LU
Barr Laboratories 79.19 120 18.5 22.3
NYSE: BRL
Company
Exchange: Symbol Why Stock Will Outperform
Home Depot Lewis says Home Depot's stock is cheap and the
NYSE: HD company looks ready to turn the corner.
Best Buy The retail stock slump has hit Best Buy, but
NYSE: BBY Lewis thinks the company will weather the sag.
Symantec The company's antivirus software is a hit,
Nasdaq: SYMC which is enough to keep Symantec rolling.
Lucent Technologies Lewis thinks Lucent is as cheap as it can get,
NYSE: LU yet the company has taken steps to right its
direction.
Barr Laboratories Barr Labs has new products coming to market
NYSE: BRL that will send the company's stock higher.
* AS OF JAN. 17, 2003
SOURCES: HAMILTON LEWIS; HAMILTON LEWIS CAPITAL MANAGEMENT;
MORNINGSTAR INC.; YAHOO! FINANCE; ZACKS INVESTMENT RESEARCH
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