Printer Friendly
The Free Library
5,677,147 articles and books
Member login
User name  
Password 
 
Join us Forgot password?

Contrary to popular opinion: in the stock market, Hamilton Lewis likes to take a different route. (Private Screening).


Houston money manager Hamilton Lewis doesn't necessarily advocate going with the crowd. Instead, he prefers to see what the majority of investors are doing and then to take an opposite tactic. The 19-year veteran of the markets, who started as a stockbroker for Merrill Lynch Merrill Lynch & Co., Inc. (NYSE: MER TYO: 8675 ), through its subsidiaries and affiliates, provides capital markets services, investment banking and advisory services, wealth management, asset management, insurance, banking and related products and services on a global basis.  and later launched his own firm, Hamilton Lewis Capital Management, in 1991, says, "I like to pay attention to where the market is, and what direction it's taking. That alone accounts for about 30% of my success." Next, he scans industry groups to see which sectors have fallen from favor. Choosing industries that will rebound well, he estimates, accounts for another 50% of his success.

Lewis, 43, who invests some $25 million for his high-net-worth clientele, often focuses on downtrodden down·trod·den  
adj.
Oppressed; tyrannized.


downtrodden
Adjective

oppressed and lacking the will to resist

Adj. 1.
 industries. "I like to come in on the low end of a stock's cycle, when buyers are depressed, and news reports for the company are ugly," he says. "That gives us the potential for greater upside."

To measure the mood of the market, Lewis turns to the CBOE Volatility Index CBOE Volatility Index

See VIX Index.
 (VIX VIX

The implied volatility on the S&P 100 (OEX) option. This volatility is meant to be a forward looking volatility. It is calculated from both calls and puts that are near the money. The VIX is a popular measure of market risk.
), which is compiled by the Chicago Board of Exchange. It gauges how optimistic institutional investors feel about the market by their purchases of options contracts. Typically the VIX has drifted, ranging from 18 on the low end (an indication that investors feel quite optimistic about stocks) to 50 at the high end (at times when a pessimistic mood looms over the market). Lewis says individual investors can track the CBOE CBOE

See: Chicago Board Options Exchange


CBOE

See Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE).
 by going online to www.cboe.com and clicking on a heading titled "market quotes."

As of mid-January, the CBOE was 26 to 27, a sign that investors felt relatively good about their prospects, even with war and a dragging economy making headlines. Lewis believes the optimism might be inflated, a signal that the market might be primed for a fall.

Early in January, Lewis had his sights on retail stocks, which were reeling from the weak economy. Consequently, his first two Private Screening picks are Home Depot The Home Depot (NYSE: HD) is an American retailer of home improvement and construction products and services.

Headquartered in Vinings, just outside Atlanta in unincorporated Cobb County, Georgia, Home Depot employs more than 355,000 people and operates 2,164 big-box
 (NYSE NYSE

See: New York Stock Exchange
: HD) and Best Buy (NYSE: BBY BBY Best Buy (stock symbol)
BBY Before Battle of Yavin (Star Wars)
BBY BeBeyond (Chinese online community) 
). Home Depot still has a commanding presence in the fix-it-up market, even after reporting lackluster earnings. Lewis expects the stock to bounce back from about $20 a share to $35 a share in the next 12 to 18 months. Electronics seller Best Buy, meanwhile, also suffered with its retail peers, dropping from $50 a share to a little less than $20 during 2002. Lewis thinks the company remains sound and will quite possibly return to $45 a share in the next 12 to 18 months.

Generic pharmaceuticals maker Barr Laboratories (NYSE: BRL BRL

In currencies, this is the abbreviation for the Brazilian Real.

Notes:
The currency market, also known as the Foreign Exchange market, is the largest financial market in the world, with a daily average volume of over US $1 trillion.
) is another of Lewis' rebound candidates. After languishing lan·guish  
intr.v. lan·guished, lan·guish·ing, lan·guish·es
1. To be or become weak or feeble; lose strength or vigor.

2.
 in 2002, new drugs in the company's pipeline should boost revenues and return its stock to $120 a share.

Lucent Technologies (NYSE: LU), a stock that has fallen from the top tier of technology firms to below $1.00 a share, could also recover slightly. Lewis says the company's cost-cutting and attention to margins could send its stock up to $1.75 a share in the next 12 to 18 months.

Finally, Symantec (Nasdaq: SYMC SYMC Symantec Corporation (stock symbol) ) doesn't fit the profile of Lewis' other choices. The company is coming off of a strong 2002, but Lewis thinks Symantec's antivirus software See antivirus program.

(tool) antivirus software - Programs to detect and remove computer viruses. The simplest kind scans executable files and boot blocks for a list of known viruses.
 will continue to be a hit. He looks for the stock to reach $67 a share in the next 12 to 18 months.
Hamilton Lewis' Private Screening Picks

                                 12- to                    Est. 5-Yr.
Company                         18-Month    P/E Projected  Annual EPS
Exchange: Symbol     Price *  Price Target  2003 Earnings  Growth Rate

Home Depot           $22.43      $35            13.9          15.6
NYSE: HD

Best Buy              27.70       45            15.3          18.0
NYSE: BBY

Symantec              45.05       67            26.3          17.2
Nasdaq: SYMC

Lucent Technologies    1.64        1.75          N/A          13.1
NYSE: LU

Barr Laboratories     79.19      120            18.5          22.3
NYSE: BRL

Company
Exchange: Symbol     Why Stock Will Outperform

Home Depot           Lewis says Home Depot's stock is cheap and the
NYSE: HD             company looks ready to turn the corner.

Best Buy             The retail stock slump has hit Best Buy, but
NYSE: BBY            Lewis thinks the company will weather the sag.

Symantec             The company's antivirus software is a hit,
Nasdaq: SYMC         which is enough to keep Symantec rolling.

Lucent Technologies  Lewis thinks Lucent is as cheap as it can get,
NYSE: LU             yet the company has taken steps to right its
                     direction.

Barr Laboratories    Barr Labs has new products coming to market
NYSE: BRL            that will send the company's stock higher.

* AS OF JAN. 17, 2003

SOURCES: HAMILTON LEWIS; HAMILTON LEWIS CAPITAL MANAGEMENT;
MORNINGSTAR INC.; YAHOO! FINANCE; ZACKS INVESTMENT RESEARCH
COPYRIGHT 2003 Earl G. Graves Publishing Co., Inc.
No portion of this article can be reproduced without the express written permission from the copyright holder.
Copyright 2003, Gale Group. All rights reserved. Gale Group is a Thomson Corporation Company.

 Reader Opinion

Title:

Comment:



 

Article Details
Printer friendly Cite/link Email Feedback
Author:Anderson, James A.
Publication:Black Enterprise
Article Type:Illustration
Geographic Code:1USA
Date:Apr 1, 2003
Words:769
Previous Article:Reviewing 22 stocks from 2002: our stock portfolios weathered a rough market to do quite well. (Investing).(Illustration)
Next Article:Emerging markets hit the wall: Nathan Lewis' minority-owned or managed companies has setbacks. (Stock Update).(Equity Research Group at Atlanta-based...
Topics:



Related Articles
More than instinct alone: a methodical Hamilton Lewis checks out the market before investing.(Private Screening)
The power of diversification.
Focus on emerging markets; Nathan Lewis of Jackson Securities believes minority-owned firms can show the way to profits. (Private Screening).(Brief...
New desktop, laptop and MP3 device make learning faster and easier. (new products).
Once Two Heroes.(Book Review)(Brief Article)
Emerging markets hit the wall: Nathan Lewis' minority-owned or managed companies has setbacks. (Stock Update).(Equity Research Group at Atlanta-based...
Ripe for a recovery: F. Douglass Lewis Jr. of FDL Financial Services looks to forecast trends that will lead the economic rebound. (Private...
Tyrolean transformation: a new town hall forms the fulcrum of this civic development in the heart of Innsbruck, which suggests a bolder approach to...
An open post motion offense.(Basketball)
A rebound to riches: Hamilton Lewis' portfolio of downtrodden stocks gained a stellar 86%.(Stock Update)

Terms of use | Copyright © 2009 Farlex, Inc. | Feedback | For webmasters | Submit articles