Continental divide.

Gay activists will have to grapple with an acrimonious Congress almost evenly divided between Republicans and Democrats

Logging on to the Web sites of major gay and lesbian organizations the week after the most closely contested election in 124 years was a disconcerting experience. "Update coming soon," promised the Human Rights Campaign on issues like the Employment Non-Discrimination Act and the Hate Crimes Prevention Act. The National Gay and Lesbian Task Force was similarly suspended, listing the names of those who had signed on to HCPA, dated midsummer. It was as though gay activists were holding their collective breath for the outcome of election 2000, the most unsatisfying, bizarre election anyone could remember.

But while the presidential insulin may have been unclear after Election Day, the composition of the Congress was all too plain. No matter who was going to be in the White House, gay activists will face a Congress almost evenly divided between Republicans and Democrats: At press time the Republican lead in the House was 221-212, while the Senate was divided 50-50. Following years of battles between the two parties, the results are a recipe for continued gridlock, and they present a fresh challenge to advocates for gay, lesbian, bisexual, and transgendered people.

"Now we don't have an arena if in fact we have a stalemate in the Senate, the House with a [slim Republican] margin, and the White House with a weak president," says Bob Bailey, a political scientist at Rutgers University.

Indeed, the outlook for gay legislation in Congress is more complicated than ever. While activists face fewer conservative opponents in the new Congress, they hardly have the votes they need to pass key legislation. The president will provide some direction, but diminished by weeks of electoral dispute, he has no clear mandate. The result is a much different scenario from that which gay and lesbian groups have become used to over the past 20 years. "The community will have no lever of power," says Bailey. "Unlike in the 1980s, when we had House leadership who were willing to listen, and unlike the 1990s, when the White House was open, this time I'm not sure we will have a door open."

That's partially because the leadership of the House and Senate isn't going anywhere. Republican Senate leader Trent Lott poses a "great deal of difficulty" where gay and lesbian causes are concerned, says NGLTF executive director Elizabeth Toledo. And contrary to those who believe that an almost evenly balanced Congress means a more centrist one, Toledo fears that "even with a slim majority, the Republican Party may try to play a much stronger hand than what the voters' mandate might prescribe."

Still, says HRC executive director Elizabeth Birch, the new Congress is better than previous ones. "What won here is the center," says Birch, "and one thing that HRC has tried to do is to frame GLBT issues as centrist issues that are ideologically neutral in many ways."

Indeed, HRC memos written after the election point out that 90% of the candidates HRC endorsed in the 2000 election cycle won their races. "Once again," reads one memo, "the gay and lesbian community proved to be a key constituency that provided the margins of victory in several tight races." And that means, "regardless of the outcome of the presidential race, the November 7th election results indicate that Congress will be a marginally more hospitable place than the last Congress on gay and lesbian issues."

Still, Birch admits, gay groups will face some hostility. "We will continue to play a very important defensive role," she says. "We never know where missiles and bullets will come from, and we will ward them off."

Gay organizations are developing strategies to deal with the new reality in Washington. Toledo says new emphasis must be placed on grassroots activism in order to block any conservative attacks. "The voice of [grassroots movements] will have to be so strong," she emphasizes. If the country appears to be moving in a conservative direction, she says, "we draw a line and say we will not be pushed back. We fight not only to get proactive legislation but also to maintain gains."

To some degree gay groups have already succeeded in that goal. Bailey believes it's likely that "some variation on ENDA" will make it through Congress in this next cycle: "The question for the community will be, Will we accept it?" Bailey predicts that gays and lesbians will have to work on Republicans from "suburbs around big cities," who tend to be more liberal.

Both HRC and NGLTF have made a commitment to focus on state as well as national issues during the next two years. To that end, Birch wants to see "a new era of unity" among gay and lesbian organizations, with "strong alliances" that work toward common goals.

Like Toledo, Bailey sees an ever-increasing role for street-level activists. "When you look at the [national] GLBT agenda of the past few years, it's been limited," he says. "At the state level there are lots of other issues: domestic partnerships, some sort of civil unions, equal protection clauses. At the state level you can ask for money for [local] health and community centers."

Ultimately, the challenge facing activists may be a short-lived one. "In 24 months the Congress could easily shift between parties," Toledo notes. "The voices of the leadership could shift." For that reason, she says, activists should concentrate on long-term goals: "The most important thing is to focus on mass grassroots mobilization, to go home to our communities, organize, increase our membership, and increase our skills."

Splitting the Difference

Getting something done in Congress the next two years will be no mean feat. With a tie in the Senate, filibusters (which require 60 votes to end) can go on indefinitely, and the vice president will become the swing vote on key bills. Bitter feelings in the House will make compromise there unlikely.

* DEMOCRATS

* REPUBLICANS

* INDEPENDENTS

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Find more on gay organizations' strategies in dealing with the new Congress at www.advocate.com

Wildman is a Washington, D.C.--based writer who has contributed to The Washington Post and The New Republic.