Consumers end 2004 on a high note.December December: see month. Results The Conference Board's Consumer Confidence Index Consumer Confidence Index A measure of consumer views regarding the current economic situation and consumer expectations for the future. Information for the index is compiled and released on the last Tuesday of each month by the Conference Board, an , which had been on the decline since August, rebounded in December. The Index now stands at 102.3 (1985=100), up from 92.6 in November November: see month. . The Expectations Index rose to 99.9 from 90.2 last month. The Present Situation Index increased to 105.9 from 96.3. The Consumer Confidence Survey is based on a representative sample of 5,000 U.S. households. The monthly survey is conducted for The Conference Board by TNS TNS transcutaneous neural stimulation. NFO NFO Info File (file type extension) NFO New Fund Offer NFO National Farmers Organization NFO Naval Flight Officer (US Navy) NFO National Family Opinion . TNS NFO is one of the TNS group of companies (LSE LSE - Language Sensitive Editor : TNN TNN The National Network (formerly The Nashville Network) TNN The Nashville Network (now The National Network) TNN The Nerd Network (online gaming clan) ). The cutoff date for December's preliminary results was December 20th. Consumers' assessment of current conditions was significantly more favorable fa·vor·a·ble adj. 1. Advantageous; helpful: favorable winds. 2. Encouraging; propitious: a favorable diagnosis. 3. than last month. The percentage claiming business conditions are "good" increased to 24.4 percent from 23.2 percent, while respondents In the context of marketing research, a representative sample drawn from a larger population of people from whom information is collected and used to develop or confirm marketing strategy. claiming conditions are "bad" tell to 17.8 percent from 20.2 percent. The employment picture also improved in December. Consumers saying jobs are "plentiful plen·ti·ful adj. 1. Existing in great quantity or ample supply. 2. Providing or producing an abundance: a plentiful harvest. " increased to 19.4 percent from 17.1 percent, while those claiming jobs are "hard to get" declined to 26.4 percent from 28.0 percent. Consumers' short-term Short-term Any investments with a maturity of one year or less. short-term 1. Of or relating to a gain or loss on the value of an asset that has been held less than a specified period of time. outlook was more upbeat than a month ago. Those anticipating business conditions to worsen wors·en tr. & intr.v. wors·ened, wors·en·ing, wors·ens To make or become worse. worsen Verb to make or become worse worsening adjn fell to 7.7 percent from 11.4 percent. Consumers expecting business conditions to improve rose to 22.0 percent from 20.3 percent last month. The labor market labor market A place where labor is exchanged for wages; an LM is defined by geography, education and technical expertise, occupation, licensure or certification requirements, and job experience outlook was also more optimistic op·ti·mist n. 1. One who usually expects a favorable outcome. 2. A believer in philosophical optimism. op . Consumers expecting fewer jobs to become available in the coming months declined to 15.5 percent from 19.3 percent. However, those anticipating more jobs to become available eased to 16.2 percent from 17.6 percent. The proportion of consumers expecting their incomes to improve in the months ahead edged up to 20.7 percent from 19.2 percent last month. The continuing economic expansion, combined with job growth, has consumers ending the year on a high note. The most significant contributor to the rebound rebound (rē´bownd), n/v 1. a recovery from illness. n 2. an outbreak of fresh reflex activity after withdrawal of a stimulus rebound adjective in confidence has been the overall improvement in current conditions over the past twelve months. The Present Situation Index now stands at 105.9, up from 86.1 in January January: see month. 2004. And while expectations are below earlier levels, 99.9 in December versus 105.3 in January, consumers are confident that the economy will continue to expand in 2005.
Consumer Confidence and Buying Plans
Based on surveys conducted by TNS NFO
Percentage of households = 100%
2003 2004
All series seasonally adjusted Dec. Jan. Feb. Mar.
Composite Series: Index Numbers,
1985=100
Consumer Confidence Index 94.8 97.7 88.5 88.5
Present Situation 76.0 86.1 83.3 84.4
Expectations 107.4 105.3 91.9 91.3
Appraisal of Present Situation:
Percent
Business Conditions
Good 18.1 21.8 19.3 20.7
Bad 23.7 23.1 23.2 23.1
Normal 58.2 55.1 57.5 56.2
Employment
Jobs plentiful 13.0 14.9 14.5 14.7
Jobs not so plentiful 55.6 55.4 56.6 55.4
Jobs hard to get 31.4 29.7 28.9 29.9
Expectations for Six Months
Hence: Percent
Business Conditions
Better 28.0 27.0 19.5 19.5
Worse 6.8 6.9 9.6 9.7
Same 65.2 66.1 70.9 70.8
Employment
More jobs 21.2 20.0 16.4 15.7
Fewer jobs 15.1 15.2 18.8 17.3
Same 63.7 64.8 64.8 67.0
Income
Increase 21.7 18.2 17.1 18.0
Decrease 9.6 8.6 8.4 10.1
Same 68.7 73.2 74.5 71.9
Plans to Buy Within Six Months:
Percent
Automobile
Yes 6.2 6.7 7.2 5.4
New 2.8 2.5 2.9 2.3
Used 2.7 3.1 3.2 2.4
Uncertain 0.7 1.1 1.1 0.7
Home
Yes 3.2 3.5 3.8 4.2
New 0.8 1.0 1.3 1.4
Lived in 1.5 1.6 1.4 1.8
Uncertain 0.9 0.9 1.1 1.0
Major appliances
Total plans 27.5 28.3 27.5 29.0
Refrigerator 4.4 4.9 3.9 4.6
Washing machine 3.1 3.7 3.7 3.6
TV Set 7.0 6.5 7.4 6.7
Vacuum Cleaner 4.7 4.9 4.8 5.2
Range 3.1 3.0 2.6 3.4
Clothes dryer 3.2 3.3 3.2 3.7
Air conditioner 2.0 2.0 1.9 1.8
Carpet 5.4 5.8 4.7 5.2
Vacation Intended Within Six
Months: Percent
Vacation Intended 45.9 43.0
Destination
U.S. 38.0 36.6
Foreign country 8.7 8.0
Means of Travel
Automobile 25.8 23.7
Airplane 16.7 17.6
Other 3.9 3.6
Busi-
ness
2004
All series seasonally adjusted Apr. May June July
Composite Series: Index Numbers,
1985=100
Consumer Confidence Index 93.0 93.1 102.8 105.7
Present Situation 90.4 90.5 105.9 106.4
Expectations 94.8 94.8 100.8 105.3
Appraisal of Present Situation:
Percent
Business Conditions
Good 21.7 22.2 25.8 25.2
Bad 21.7 21.6 17.4 19.1
Normal 56.6 56.2 56.8 55.7
Employment
Jobs plentiful 15.6 16.6 18.3 19.7
Jobs not so plentiful 56.4 53.1 55.5 54.6
Jobs hard to get 28.0 30.3 26.2 25.7
Expectations for Six Months
Hence: Percent
Business Conditions
Better 20.8 22.8 23.5 23.0
Worse 9.3 10.1 9.1 7.1
Same 69.9 67.1 67.4 69.9
Employment
More jobs 18.3 18.7 19.9 19.5
Fewer jobs 17.7 17.3 16.8 13.5
Same 64.0 64.0 63.3 67.0
Income
Increase 17.4 17.1 19.7 18.0
Decrease 9.6 10.2 8.6 8.5
Same 73.0 72.7 71.7 73.5
Plans to Buy Within Six Months:
Percent
Automobile
Yes 6.6 6.4 6.4 6.8
New 3.3 2.8 3.0 3.3
Used 2.5 2.6 2.8 2.5
Uncertain 0.8 1.0 0.6 1.0
Home
Yes 3.6 4.1 3.6 4.1
New 0.8 1.2 1.0 0.9
Lived in 2.0 1.7 1.5 2.1
Uncertain 0.8 1.2 1.1 1.1
Major appliances
Total plans 31.2 33.0 34.3 30.4
Refrigerator 4.8 5.4 5.5 4.1
Washing machine 3.5 4.3 4.7 4.5
TV Set 7.7 7.9 7.9 7.4
Vacuum Cleaner 5.2 6.2 5.4 5.4
Range 3.7 2.8 3.7 3.2
Clothes dryer 3.9 4.2 5.1 3.8
Air conditioner 2.4 2.2 2.0 2.0
Carpet 4.8 5.9 6.5 6.0
Vacation Intended Within Six
Months: Percent
Vacation Intended 42.7 42.7
Destination
U.S. 36.3 35.5
Foreign country 8.3 9.3
Means of Travel
Automobile 22.4 22.4
Airplane 20.6 20.5
Other 3.7 3.9
Busi- Employment
ness
2004
All series seasonally adjusted Aug. Sept. Oct. Nov. (r)
Composite Series: Index Numbers,
1985=100
Consumer Confidence Index 98.7 96.7 92.9 92.6
Present Situation 100.7 95.3 94.0 96.3
Expectations 97.3 97.7 92.2 90.2
Appraisal of Present Situation:
Percent
Business Conditions
Good 23.0 23.4 21.6 23.2
Bad 20.2 20.4 21.4 20.2
Normal 56.8 56.2 57.0 56.6
Employment
Jobs plentiful 18.4 16.6 17.4 17.1
Jobs not so plentiful 55.6 55.4 54.7 54.9
Jobs hard to get 26.0 28.0 27.9 28.0
Expectations for Six Months
Hence: Percent
Business Conditions
Better 20.2 21.6 20.7 20.3
Worse 8.8 9.4 10.5 11.4
Same 71.0 69.0 68.8 68.3
Employment
More jobs 16.3 17.8 16.7 17.6
Fewer jobs 15.1 16.2 18.3 19.3
Same 68.6 66.0 65.0 63.1
Income
Increase 19.7 20.0 19.0 19.2
Decrease 9.2 9.2 9.5 10.6
Same 71.1 70.8 71.5 70.2
Plans to Buy Within Six
Months: Percent
Automobile
Yes 6.5 6.3 7.6 4.6
New 2.9 2.6 3.2 2.1
Used 2.5 2.5 3.2 1.8
Uncertain 1.1 1.2 1.2 0.7
Home
Yes 3.9 3.9 3.6 2.6
New 1.3 1.0 0.9 0.7
Lived in 1.7 2.0 1.4 1.3
Uncertain 0.9 0.9 1.3 0.6
Major appliances
Total plans 29.0 29.8 27.8 25.3
Refrigerator 4.2 5.1 4.3 4.2
Washing machine 3.6 3.6 3.8 3.5
TV Set 7.5 6.6 7.5 6.4
Vacuum Cleaner 5.5 5.8 4.5 4.7
Range 3.0 3.4 3.2 2.6
Clothes dryer 3.4 3.0 3.1 2.6
Air conditioner 1.8 2.3 1.4 1.3
Carpet 5.4 5.3 5.0 4.0
Vacation Intended Within Six
Months: Percent
Vacation Intended 42.1 47.8
Destination
U.S. 34.9 39.7
Foreign country 8.4 9.3
Means of Travel
Automobile 21.8 25.4
Airplane 18.5 18.4
Other 4.1 4.7
Income
All series seasonally adjusted Dec. (p)
Composite
Series:
Index
Numbers,
1985=100
Consumer Confidence Index 102.3
Present Situation 105.9
Expectations 99.9
Appraisal
of Present
Situation:
Percent
Business Conditions
Good 24.4
Bad 17.8
Normal 57.8
Employment
Jobs plentiful 19.4
Jobs not so plentiful 54.2
Jobs hard to get 26.4
Expectations
for Six
Months
Hence:
Percent
Business Conditions
Better 22.0
Worse 7.7
Same 70.3
Employment
More jobs 16.2
Fewer jobs 15.5
Same 68.3
Income
Increase 20.7
Decrease 8.6
Same 70.7
Plans to
Buy Within
Six Months:
Percent
Automobile
Yes 6.4
New 3.2
Used 2.3
Uncertain 0.9
Home
Yes 3.4
New 1.0
Lived in 1.2
Uncertain 1.2
Major appliances
Total plans 29.3
Refrigerator 3.9
Washing machine 3.9
TV Set 8.1
Vacuum Cleaner 5.2
Range 3.0
Clothes dryer 3.6
Air conditioner 1.6
Carpet 5.3
Vacation
Intended
Within Six
Months:
Percent
Vacation Intended 48.2
Destination
U.S. 39.0
Foreign country 10.1
Means of Travel
Automobile 25.2
Airplane 18.6
Other 5.2
(p)--preliminary (r)--revised
Inflation Interest Rates Stock Prices
2003 2004
Not Seasonally
Adjusted Dec. Jan. Feb. Mar. Apr.
Expectations for Twelve Months Hence: Percent
Inflation Rate
Average 4.3 4.3 4.3 4.6 4.8
Interest Rates
Higher 56.0 54.0 53.4 54.9 55.9
Same 33.9 37.2 36.5 35.2 34.1
Lower 10.1 8.8 10.1 9.9 10.0
Stock Prices
Increase 44.7 47.2 43.3 39.3 39.7
Same 36.7 36.5 38.6 39.9 36.9
Decrease 18.6 16.3 18.1 20.8 23.4
Inflation Stock Prices
2004
Not Seasonally
Adjusted May June July Aug. Sept. Oct.
Expectations for Twelve Months Hence: Percent
Inflation Rate
Average 5.2 5.1 4.4 4.5 4.5 5.0
Interest Rates
Higher 69.8 68.6 75.3 69.7 67.6 70.1
Same 22.3 23.5 19.3 22.9 26.0 23.4
Lower 7.9 7.9 5.4 7.4 6.4 6.5
Stock Prices
Increase 34.6 36.5 39.0 33.5 36.9 33.2
Same 40.4 40.4 41.3 41.8 41.7 41.8
Decrease 25.0 23.1 19.7 24.7 21.4 25.0
Stock Prices
2004
Not Seasonally
Adjusted Nov. (r) Dec. (p)
Expectations for
Twelve Months Hence:
Percent
Inflation Rate
Average 4.8 4.7
Interest Rates
Higher 67.3 69.0
Same 26.6 24.3
Lower 6.1 6.7
Stock Prices
Increase 41.6 38.8
Same 40.2 41.2
Decrease 18.2 20.0
2003 2004
All series seasonally adjusted
Dec. Jan. Feb. Mar.
Consumer Confidence Index,
1985 = 100
Age of Household Head
Under 35 101.9 111.5 101.7 101.7
35-54 92.2 91.2 85.5 88.2
55 and over 93.3 97.3 83.6 81.4
Household Income
Under $15,000 64.3 69.1 63.5 61.5
$15,000-24,999 74.2 85.2 65.8 69.4
$25,000-34,999 89.9 92.9 82.8 88.0
$35,000-49,999 93.0 95.2 84.3 79.6
$50,000 and over 110.9 112.0 107.1 105.9
2004
All series seasonally adjusted
Apr. May June July
Consumer Confidence Index,
1985 = 100
Age of Household Head
Under 35 105.5 99.2 113.5 112.1
35-54 89.8 94.8 102.4 103.8
55 and over 88.8 87.2 96.9 103.4
Household Income
Under $15,000 63.4 66.4 69.8 71.6
$15,000-24,999 76.2 68.3 90.9 89.0
$25,000-34,999 88.2 85.2 100.1 93.9
$35,000-49,999 96.9 90.7 104.3 101.7
$50,000 and over 107.5 111.4 116.6 125.2
2004
All series seasonally adjusted
Aug. Sept. Oct. Nov. (r)
Consumer Confidence Index,
1985 = 100
Age of Household Head
Under 35 114.6 109.3 105.9 95.8
35-54 95.3 97.9 96.8 89.0
55 and over 95.7 90.3 83.4 93.7
Household Income
Under $15,000 66.2 61.1 61.2 59.4
$15,000-24,999 83.6 78.1 73.1 73.1
$25,000-34,999 79.5 94.5 95.2 86.8
$35,000-49,999 104.9 97.7 89.5 91.0
$50,000 and over 116.6 113.6 108.2 110.5
2004 3 mos.
All series seasonally adjusted Percent
Dec. (p) Change *
Age of Household Head
Under 35 113.1 -6.3
35-54 97.7 -4.5
55 and over 103.0 -3.2
Household Income
Under $15,000 72.0 -3.2
$15,000-24,999 79.2 -10.1
$25,000-34,999 95.2 3.5
$35,000-49,999 105.0 -6.2
$50,000 and over 119.7 -4.8
* Percent Change: Average of last three months shown as compared with
preceding three months. Age and Income data have been adjusted for
seasonal variations.
Consumer Confidence by Region
Seasonally unadjusted 2003 2004
Index numbers:
U.S. Average, 1985 = 100 Nov. Dec. Jan. Feb.
New England
Consumer Confidence Index 104.2 92.5 98.2 81.3
Present Situation 103.3 72.7 86.5 48.8
Expectations 104.8 105.7 106.1 103.0
Middle Atlantic
Consumer Confidence Index 80.5 78.1 83.6 72.6
Present Situation 70.3 60.9 62.5 65.8
Expectations 87.3 89.6 97.7 77.2
East North Central
Consumer Confidence Index 90.4 90.0 83.6 71.4
Present Situation 74.7 62.7 61.1 51.9
Expectations 100.8 108.2 98.6 84.4
West North Central
Consumer Confidence Index 88.1 94.5 96.4 93.3
Present Situation 71.3 78.9 85.0 77.2
Expectations 99.3 104.9 104.0 104.0
South Atlantic
Consumer Confidence Index 103.9 106.1 109.6 105.7
Present Situation 105.3 107.3 106.6 106.2
Expectations 103.0 105.4 111.6 105.3
East South Central
Consumer Confidence Index 98.7 84.5 102.2 91.5
Present Situation 104.7 69.8 94.8 79.0
Expectations 94.7 94.3 107.2 99.9
West South Central
Consumer Confidence Index 97.0 99.7 108.0 95.5
Present Situation 83.1 82.4 92.5 83.4
Expectations 106.2 111.3 118.3 103.6
Mountain
Consumer Confidence Index 102.8 105.1 119.0 104.3
Present Situation 95.0 92.0 102.6 93.2
Expectations 108.1 113.9 130.0 111.7
Pacific
Consumer Confidence Index 92.4 90.6 96.9 94.1
Present Situation 71.8 70.9 75.1 80.6
Expectations 106.1 103.8 111.5 103.1
Seasonally unadjusted 2004
Index numbers:
U.S. Average, 1985 = 100 Mar. Apr. May June
New England
Consumer Confidence Index 85.8 81.2 81.8 100.1
Present Situation 71.3 74.8 79.8 101.0
Expectations 95.5 85.5 83.1 99.6
Middle Atlantic
Consumer Confidence Index 69.4 83.7 78.8 82.9
Present Situation 56.9 72.2 72.5 83.1
Expectations 77.7 91.4 82.9 82.8
East North Central
Consumer Confidence Index 74.4 75.3 79.3 79.8
Present Situation 55.6 56.6 68.9 82.6
Expectations 87.0 87.9 86.3 78.0
West North Central
Consumer Confidence Index 89.4 100.1 86.3 100.0
Present Situation 84.5 103.9 93.2 108.6
Expectations 92.6 97.6 81.8 94.3
South Atlantic
Consumer Confidence Index 104.7 103.0 109.4 118.8
Present Situation 112.7 114.5 121.5 134.7
Expectations 99.3 95.3 101.4 108.2
East South Central
Consumer Confidence Index 84.6 83.0 80.9 105.1
Present Situation 74.8 81.9 79.2 115.3
Expectations 91.2 83.8 82.1 98.3
West South Central
Consumer Confidence Index 95.0 103.4 92.9 109.3
Present Situation 80.4 95.7 89.7 110.3
Expectations 104.8 108.6 95.0 108.7
Mountain
Consumer Confidence Index 98.4 100.2 99.3 122.0
Present Situation 92.0 106.4 98.3 127.7
Expectations 102.6 96.1 100.0 118.2
Pacific
Consumer Confidence Index 93.2 93.3 96.1 103.3
Present Situation 78.4 77.9 82.5 103.6
Expectations 103.1 103.5 105.1 103.2
Seasonally unadjusted 2004
Index numbers:
U.S. Average, 1985 = 100 July Aug. Sept. Oct.
New England
Consumer Confidence Index 101.4 82.3 77.1 87.7
Present Situation 102.9 95.5 83.3 91.4
Expectations 100.3 73.5 72.9 85.3
Middle Atlantic
Consumer Confidence Index 89.5 84.9 89.0 78.9
Present Situation 92.4 92.3 80.7 86.5
Expectations 87.5 80.0 94.6 73.9
East North Central
Consumer Confidence Index 87.4 82.2 77.4 78.0
Present Situation 79.7 73.6 69.1 80.5
Expectations 92.5 88.0 82.9 76.4
West North Central
Consumer Confidence Index 109.9 96.0 95.1 93.7
Present Situation 116.5 100.5 103.1 104.4
Expectations 105.6 92.9 89.8 86.6
South Atlantic
Consumer Confidence Index 117.5 104.1 110.8 113.4
Present Situation 127.5 116.6 122.1 120.4
Expectations 110.9 95.8 103.3 108.7
East South Central
Consumer Confidence Index 104.2 97.9 89.4 105.0
Present Situation 107.7 99.4 101.2 112.2
Expectations 101.8 96.9 81.6 100.2
West South Central
Consumer Confidence Index 104.6 106.4 107.8 106.3
Present Situation 110.4 104.8 103.2 108.8
Expectations 100.7 107.5 110.9 104.6
Mountain
Consumer Confidence Index 112.7 106.1 116.0 111.0
Present Situation 118.7 109.5 137.9 115.4
Expectations 108.7 103.9 101.5 108.1
Pacific
Consumer Confidence Index 111.4 104.4 106.3 102.2
Present Situation 109.0 107.7 105.7 101.9
Expectations 113.1 102.2 106.7 102.4
3-MONTH AVG.
2004
Seasonally unadjusted Oct., Nov., Dec.
Index numbers: Nov. Dec.
U.S. Average, 1985 = 100 (r) (p) 2003 2004
New England
Consumer Confidence Index 88.5 104.7 90.7 93.6
Present Situation 99.5 109.8 77.8 100.2
Expectations 81.2 101.3 99.4 89.3
Middle Atlantic
Consumer Confidence Index 67.9 85.5 76.0 77.5
Present Situation 66.4 97.8 62.9 83.5
Expectations 69.0 77.3 84.7 73.4
East North Central
Consumer Confidence Index 80.7 78.5 85.1 79.1
Present Situation 77.2 67.2 68.3 74.9
Expectations 83.1 86.0 96.3 81.8
West North Central
Consumer Confidence Index 103.9 109.7 87.8 102.4
Present Situation 120.9 111.4 72.5 112.2
Expectations 92.6 108.5 98.0 95.9
South Atlantic
Consumer Confidence Index 112.2 117.5 103.0 114.4
Present Situation 129.3 136.5 101.9 128.7
Expectations 100.8 104.9 103.7 104.8
East South Central
Consumer Confidence Index 100.2 101.5 92.9 102.2
Present Situation 109.1 114.9 89.7 112.0
Expectations 94.2 92.7 95.0 95.7
West South Central
Consumer Confidence Index 107.7 107.6 94.5 107.2
Present Situation 115.8 119.3 78.1 114.6
Expectations 102.3 99.8 105.4 102.2
Mountain
Consumer Confidence Index 95.1 119.8 104.3 108.6
Present Situation 110.1 131.5 94.5 119.0
Expectations 85.1 112.1 110.8 101.8
Pacific
Consumer Confidence Index 98.2 102.1 89.7 100.8
Present Situation 96.8 109.7 68.4 102.8
Expectations 99.2 97.0 103.9 99.5
Seasonally unadjusted
Index numbers: Percent
U.S. Average, 1985 = 100 Change
New England
Consumer Confidence Index 3.2
Present Situation 28.9
Expectations -10.1
Middle Atlantic
Consumer Confidence Index 1.9
Present Situation 32.7
Expectations -13.4
East North Central
Consumer Confidence Index -7.1
Present Situation 9.8
Expectations 15.0
West North Central
Consumer Confidence Index 16.7
Present Situation 54.8
Expectations -2.1
South Atlantic
Consumer Confidence Index 11.1
Present Situation 26.3
Expectations 1.1
East South Central
Consumer Confidence Index 10.1
Present Situation 24.9
Expectations 0.8
West South Central
Consumer Confidence Index 13.5
Present Situation 46.8
Expectations -3.0
Mountain
Consumer Confidence Index 4.2
Present Situation 25.9
Expectations -8.2
Pacific
Consumer Confidence Index 12.4
Present Situation 50.4
Expectations -4.2
* Percent Change: Average of last three months shown as compared with
the same period a year ago. Regional data are not adjusted for seasonal
variation.
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