Printer Friendly

Consumer confidence up moderately.

May Results

The Conference Board's Consumer Confidence Index, which improved sharply in April, posted a moderate increase in May. The Index now stands at 83.8 (1985=100), up from 81.0 in April. The Expectations Index rose to 94.4 from 84.8. The Present Situation Index, however, fell to 67.9 from 75.2.

The Consumer Confidence Survey is based on a representative sample of 5,000 U.S. households. The monthly survey is conducted for The Conference Board by NFO WorldGroup, a member of The Interpublic Group of Companies (NYSE: IPG). The cutoff date for May's preliminary results was the 20th.

Consumers' assessment of current conditions was less favorable than last month. Respondents rating present business conditions as "bad" rose to 28.4 percent from 23.9 percent, while those holding the opposite view rose remained virtually unchanged at 16.1 percent. Labor market conditions also deteriorated. Consumers reporting jobs are hard to get jumped to 32.6 percent from 29.4 percent, while those claiming jobs are plentiful slipped to 12.6 percent from 13.0 percent.

Consumers' short-term expectations posted another significant improvement. Respondents anticipating an improvement in business conditions over the next several months rose to 22.8 percent from 18.9 percent. Consumers anticipating conditions to worsen fell to 9.7 percent from 12.3 percent. The employment outlook was also more favorable. Respondents anticipating more jobs to become available increased to 17.8 percent from 16.4 percent, while those expecting fewer jobs fell to 17.6 percent from 20.9 percent. The proportion of consumers anticipating an increase in their income edged down to 17.0 percent from 17.2 percent.

The post-war euphoria experienced last month has quickly given way and consumers' focus has returned to matters on the home front. Labor market conditions continue to be of concern, but consumers anticipate a turnaround in the coming months. While the overall Index improved moderately, the decline in the Present Situation Index suggests consumers will continue spending at current levels.

[GRAPH OMITTED]

[GRAPH OMITTED]
Consumer Confidence +2.8 83.8
Present Situation -7.3 67.9
Expectations +9.6 94.4

Consumer Confidence and Buying Plans

Based on surveys conducted by NFO Research, Inc.

Percentage of households = 100%

All series seasonally adjusted

Business

Employment

Income


 2002
 May June July Aug.

Composite Series: Index
 Numbers, 1985=100

Consumer Confidence Index 110.3 106.3 97.4 94.5
 Present Situation 111.2 104.9 99.4 93.1
 Expectations 109.7 107.2 96.1 95.5

Appraisal of Present
 Situation: Percent

Business Conditions
 Good 21.2 19.9 20.2 16.7
 Bad 18.5 19.5 22.1 21.8
 Normal 60.3 60.6 57.7 61.5
Employment
 Jobs plentiful 21.2 20.1 18.8 17.4
 Jobs not so plentiful 57.0 56.7 57.3 58.8
 Jobs hard to get 21.8 23.2 23.9 23.8

Expectations for Six
 Months Hence: Percent

Business Conditions
 Better 24.9 23.7 20.8 22.2
 Worse 6.8 7.1 9.2 10.0
 Same 68.3 69.2 70.0 67.8
Employment
 More jobs 21.2 20.4 17.3 17.4
 Fewer jobs 13.6 14.3 17.0 17.8
 Same 65.2 65.3 65.7 64.8
Income
 Increase 21.1 20.9 20.1 22.1
 Decrease 7.8 8.0 9.6 10.1
 Same 71.1 71.1 70.3 67.8

Plans to Buy Within Six
 Months: Percent

Automobile
 Yes 7.9 7.8 8.3 7.4
 New 3.8 3.9 3.3 4.1
 Used 2.7 3.0 3.8 2.3
 Uncertain 1.4 0.9 1.2 1.0
Home
 Yes 3.6 3.4 3.8 4.5
 New 1.1 0.8 0.9 1.7
 Lived in 1.5 1.5 1.9 1.9
 Uncertain 1.0 1.1 1.0 0.9
Major appliances
 Total plans 27.6 29.6 28.0 31.3
 Refrigerator 4.7 4.4 3.7 4.8
 Washing machine 3.3 3.8 3.4 3.7
 TV Set 6.6 7.7 7.4 7.3
 Vacuum Cleaner 4.7 4.8 4.3 5.8
 Range 3.1 3.1 3.3 3.3
 Clothes dryer 3.0 3.8 3.0 3.4
 Air conditioner 2.2 2.0 2.9 3.0
Carpet 5.7 5.8 5.5 5.2

Vacation Intended Within
 Six Months: Percent

Vacation Intended 44.5 42.2
 Destination
 U.S. 38.7 35.2
 Foreign country 7.3 9.2
 Means of Travel
 Automobile 24.9 22.4
 Airplane 19.6 17.7
 Other 3.4 4.0


 2002
 Sept. Oct. Nov. Dec.

Composite Series: Index
 Numbers, 1985=100

Consumer Confidence Index 93.7 79.6 84.9 80.7
 Present Situation 88.5 77.2 78.3 69.6
 Expectations 97.2 81.1 89.3 88.1

Appraisal of Present
 Situation: Percent

Business Conditions
 Good 18.5 15.6 16.1 14.5
 Bad 23.8 27.7 25.7 25.9
 Normal 57.7 56.7 58.2 59.6
Employment
 Jobs plentiful 15.9 14.7 14.2 12.3
 Jobs not so plentiful 58.7 58.0 58.5 58.0
 Jobs hard to get 25.4 27.3 27.3 29.7

Expectations for Six
 Months Hence: Percent

Business Conditions
 Better 21.6 19.3 20.3 21.1
 Worse 9.7 14.3 11.3 11.0
 Same 68.7 66.4 68.4 67.9
Employment
 More jobs 17.3 15.3 15.4 15.4
 Fewer jobs 16.8 22.1 18.8 20.2
 Same 65.9 62.6 65.8 64.4
Income
 Increase 21.5 17.9 19.4 19.6
 Decrease 8.9 11.3 9.9 10.7
 Same 69.6 70.8 70.7 69.7

Plans to Buy Within Six
 Months: Percent

Automobile
 Yes 7.2 6.9 6.8 7.7
 New 2.7 3.1 2.8 3.3
 Used 3.0 2.8 2.4 3.4
 Uncertain 1.5 1.0 1.6 1.0
Home
 Yes 3.3 3.1 3.1 3.2
 New 0.9 0.8 0.8 1.0
 Lived in 1.4 1.4 1.5 1.4
 Uncertain 1.0 0.9 0.8 0.8
Major appliances
 Total plans 26.2 28.3 28.6 28.4
 Refrigerator 4.2 4.4 3.9 4.5
 Washing machine 3.5 4.0 3.4 3.5
 TV Set 6.6 7.5 6.7 7.5
 Vacuum Cleaner 3.8 4.3 5.4 4.8
 Range 2.7 2.9 3.0 3.0
 Clothes dryer 2.9 3.2 3.4 3.4
 Air conditioner 2.5 2.0 2.8 1.7
Carpet 5.7 5.3 5.2 5.2

Vacation Intended Within
 Six Months: Percent

Vacation Intended 47.3 43.3
 Destination
 U.S. 40.1 34.7
 Foreign country 8.0 9.1
 Means of Travel
 Automobile 26.1 23.7
 Airplane 17.8 16.0
 Other 3.4 4.3


 2003
 Jan. Feb. Mar. Apr.(r)

Composite Series: Index
 Numbers, 1985=100

Consumer Confidence Index 78.8 64.8 61.4 81.0
 Present Situation 75.3 63.5 61.4 75.2
 Expectations 81.1 65.7 61.4 84.8

Appraisal of Present
 Situation: Percent

Business Conditions
 Good 15.0 13.6 13.6 16.2
 Bad 26.7 29.6 30.0 23.9
 Normal 58.3 56.8 56.4 59.9
Employment
 Jobs plentiful 14.5 11.4 11.4 13.0
 Jobs not so plentiful 56.6 58.6 56.3 57.6
 Jobs hard to get 28.9 30.0 32.3 29.4

Expectations for Six
 Months Hence: Percent

Business Conditions
 Better 17.7 14.9 13.0 18.9
 Worse 14.0 19.1 20.0 12.3
 Same 68.3 66.0 67.0 68.8
Employment
 More jobs 14.2 12.4 10.8 16.4
 Fewer jobs 21.2 28.5 26.5 20.9
 Same 64.6 59.1 62.7 62.7
Income
 Increase 18.4 16.0 15.8 17.2
 Decrease 10.2 12.2 13.4 10.7
 Same 71.4 71.8 70.8 72.1

Plans to Buy Within Six
 Months: Percent

Automobile
 Yes 6.8 6.9 6.6 6.0
 New 3.0 2.8 3.0 2.8
 Used 3.0 3.0 2.8 2.1
 Uncertain 0.8 1.1 0.8 1.1
Home
 Yes 3.6 3.8 3.2 3.4
 New 1.2 1.0 0.9 1.3
 Lived in 1.7 1.7 1.3 1.4
 Uncertain 0.7 1.1 1.0 0.7
Major appliances
 Total plans 28.2 27.5 28.2 29.7
 Refrigerator 5.8 4.1 5.3 4.7
 Washing machine 3.4 3.9 3.0 3.7
 TV Set 6.3 6.1 6.7 7.0
 Vacuum Cleaner 4.3 5.3 5.1 4.9
 Range 3.3 2.7 3.1 3.1
 Clothes dryer 3.1 3.5 3.2 4.1
 Air conditioner 2.0 1.9 1.8 2.2
Carpet 5.6 5.0 6.1 5.6

Vacation Intended Within
 Six Months: Percent

Vacation Intended 42.7 42.4
 Destination
 U.S. 35.5 37.0
 Foreign country 8.7 7.1
 Means of Travel
 Automobile 23.8 24.7
 Airplane 17.5 17.3
 Other 3.6 3.3


 2003
 May(p)

Composite Series: Index
 Numbers, 1985=100

Consumer Confidence Index 83.8
 Present Situation 67.9
 Expectations 94.4

Appraisal of Present
 Situation: Percent

Business Conditions
 Good 16.1
 Bad 28.4
 Normal 55.5
Employment
 Jobs plentiful 12.6
 Jobs not so plentiful 54.8
 Jobs hard to get 32.6

Expectations for Six
 Months Hence: Percent

Business Conditions
 Better 22.8
 Worse 9.7
 Same 67.5
Employment
 More jobs 17.8
 Fewer jobs 17.6
 Same 64.6
Income
 Increase 17.0
 Decrease 9.8
 Same 73.2

Plans to Buy Within Six
 Months: Percent

Automobile
 Yes 7.6
 New 3.7
 Used 2.5
 Uncertain 1.4
Home
 Yes 3.6
 New 1.1
 Lived in 1.5
 Uncertain 1.0
Major appliances
 Total plans 31.0
 Refrigerator 5.7
 Washing machine 3.8
 TV Set 7.1
 Vacuum Cleaner 5.1
 Range 3.8
 Clothes dryer 3.6
 Air conditioner 1.9
Carpet 5.5

Vacation Intended Within
 Six Months: Percent

Vacation Intended
 Destination
 U.S.
 Foreign country
 Means of Travel
 Automobile
 Airplane
 Other

(p) - preliminary

(r) - revised

Inflation

Interest Rates

Stock Prices

Expectations for Twelve Months Hence: Percent

Not Seasonally 2002
Adjusted May June July Aug. Sept.

Inflation Rate
 Average 4.2 4.2 4.2 4.3 4.2

Interest Rates
 Higher 54.6 51.4 45.3 43.8 43.1
 Same 34.6 35.6 39.3 36.5 39.4
 Lower 10.8 13.0 15.4 19.7 17.5

Stock Prices
 Increase 37.1 32.4 26.5 33.9 32.9
 Same 40.3 38.6 35.4 30.0 34.8
 Decrease 22.6 29.0 38.1 36.1 32.3

Not Seasonally 2002 2003
Adjusted Oct. Nov. Dec. Jan. Feb.

Inflation Rate
 Average 4.4 4.1 4.4 4.4 4.8

Interest Rates
 Higher 41.8 42.1 43.5 43.7 41.7
 Same 38.9 35.8 38.9 39.9 38.4
 Lower 19.3 22.1 17.6 16.4 19.9

Stock Prices
 Increase 29.1 34.4 33.3 31.3 25.2
 Same 31.3 35.3 34.9 34.6 32.6
 Decrease 39.6 30.3 31.8 34.1 42.2

Not Seasonally 2003
Adjusted Mar. Apr(r) May(p)

Inflation Rate
 Average 5.0 4.5 4.1

Interest Rates
 Higher 39.9 45.4 44.5
 Same 38.0 35.9 40.8
 Lower 22.1 18.7 14.7

Stock Prices
 Increase 22.9 35.1 36.4
 Same 30.5 32.7 38.6
 Decrease 46.6 32.2 25.0

(p) - preliminary

(r) - revised

Consumer Confidence Index, 1985 = 100


 2002
All series seasonally May June July Aug. Sept.
adjusted

Age of Household Head
 Under 35 112.9 116.6 108.8 100.8 106.2
 35-54 110.5 104.6 98.0 97.7 93.2
 55 and over 106.6 101.9 90.1 86.6 86.6

Household Income
 Under $15,000 74.8 77.3 71.8 64.6 69.0
 $15,000-24,999 89.6 95.7 77.3 70.0 68.1
 $25,000-34,999 108.1 102.7 85.6 94.8 93.9
 $35,000-49,999 111.2 105.7 106.9 101.6 94.5
 $50,000 and over 127.8 118.4 111.3 110.1 108.7


 2002 2003
All series seasonally Oct. Nov. Dec. Jan. Feb.
adjusted

Age of Household Head
 Under 35 92.5 90.5 98.3 89.5 78.5
 35-54 78.1 85.2 80.1 81.3 65.1
 55 and over 75.0 80.8 73.9 70.7 57.2

Household Income
 Under $15,000 62.6 65.1 58.7 57.9 45.4
 $15,000-24,999 69.0 72.3 62.1 60.8 57.7
 $25,000-34,999 73.1 77.9 79.6 68.2 66.1
 $35,000-49,999 81.4 87.3 85.2 83.4 60.9
 $50,000 and over 89.8 96.1 93.2 92.0 74.7

 3 mos.
 2003 Percnet
All series seasonally Mar. Apr.(r) May (p) Change *
adjusted

Age of Household Head
 Under 35 68.6 89.7 91.2 -6.3
 35-54 62.0 80.3 86.2 0.9
 55 and over 55.9 75.6 75.7 2.6

Household Income
 Under $15,000 41.9 61.2 69.8 6.8
 $15,000-24,999 52.5 68.0 69.6 5.2
 $25,000-34,999 55.8 81.8 84.7 3.9
 $35,000-49,999 65.0 78.2 81.4 -2.1
 $50,000 and over 71.5 91.3 92.8 -1.7

(p) - preliminary

(r) - revised

* Percent Change: Average of last three months shown as compared with
preceding three months.

Age and Income data have been adjusted for seasonal variations.

Seasonally unadjusted
Index numbers: 2002
U.S. Average, 1985 = 100 Apr. May June July

New England
 Consumer Confidence Index 106.7 107.3 104.8 92.4
 Present Situation 115.5 119.2 110.7 96.3
 Expectations 100.8 99.4 100.9 89.9
Middle Atlantic
 Consumer Confidence Index 92.3 95.9 84.2 84.8
 Present Situation 83.1 90.2 80.0 83.4
 Expectations 98.4 99.7 86.9 85.7
East North Central
 Consumer Confidence Index 102.8 107.4 97.5 86.5
 Present Situation 91.3 108.5 95.3 84.6
 Expectations 110.5 106.6 98.9 87.8
West North Central
 Consumer Confidence Index 103.0 95.6 101.5 93.2
 Present Situation 104.4 109.4 119.9 100.7
 Expectations 102.1 86.4 89.2 88.2
South Atlantic
 Consumer Confidence Index 117.2 115.3 119.7 110.2
 Present Situation 120.9 121.6 130.0 122.2
 Expectations 114.7 111.0 112.9 102.2
East South Central
 Consumer Confidence Index 95.4 95.1 103.7 86.5
 Present Situation 91.0 92.7 97.6 90.3
 Expectations 98.4 96.6 107.8 84.0
West South Central
 Consumer Confidence Index 122.9 108.6 109.8 102.2
 Present Situation 125.1 112.6 109.8 112.1
 Expectations 121.5 105.9 109.9 95.6
Mountain
 Consumer Confidence Index 114.5 124.5 113.0 95.7
 Present Situation 102.9 124.2 116.6 97.0
 Expectations 122.2 124.7 110.6 94.8
Pacific
 Consumer Confidence Index 105.0 113.5 105.4 93.8
 Present Situation 95.7 102.5 91.7 91.0
 Expectations 111.2 120.9 114.5 95.7

Seasonally unadjusted
Index numbers: 2002
U.S. Average, 1985 = 100 Aug. Sept. Oct. Nov.

New England
 Consumer Confidence Index 90.5 89.2 74.2 82.5
 Present Situation 113.7 94.3 70.8 79.9
 Expectations 75.1 85.8 76.5 84.3
Middle Atlantic
 Consumer Confidence Index 80.9 90.2 68.2 74.9
 Present Situation 73.5 84.8 66.7 67.1
 Expectations 85.8 93.8 69.2 80.2
East North Central
 Consumer Confidence Index 86.7 89.9 83.3 88.0
 Present Situation 79.0 88.0 85.6 84.5
 Expectations 91.9 91.1 81.8 90.3
West North Central
 Consumer Confidence Index 85.3 95.2 85.3 85.8
 Present Situation 86.2 110.7 98.1 93.3
 Expectations 84.7 85.0 76.8 80.8
South Atlantic
 Consumer Confidence Index 101.1 101.3 90.4 97.6
 Present Situation 110.1 100.5 101.1 98.1
 Expectations 95.1 101.9 83.3 97.2
East South Central
 Consumer Confidence Index 90.4 99.9 90.3 83.1
 Present Situation 88.1 99.4 95.3 77.2
 Expectations 92.0 100.2 87.0 87.0
West South Central
 Consumer Confidence Index 100.2 95.9 83.7 91.4
 Present Situation 103.2 90.4 81.7 91.5
 Expectations 98.2 99.6 85.0 91.4
Mountain
 Consumer Confidence Index 93.5 102.2 85.7 94.2
 Present Situation 88.8 102.8 72.5 89.7
 Expectations 96.6 101.8 94.5 97.2
Pacific
 Consumer Confidence Index 94.5 91.3 88.5 82.1
 Present Situation 89.3 83.1 80.0 63.9
 Expectations 97.9 96.9 94.2 94.2

Seasonally unadjusted
Index numbers: 2002 2003
U.S. Average, 1985 = 100 Dec. Jan. Feb. Mar.

New England
 Consumer Confidence Index 62.2 74.4 62.8 57.6
 Present Situation 66.0 63.9 44.5 38.0
 Expectations 59.6 81.5 75.1 70.8
Middle Atlantic
 Consumer Confidence Index 70.1 65.4 57.3 54.7
 Present Situation 58.7 53.8 43.2 52.5
 Expectations 77.7 73.1 66.8 56.2
East North Central
 Consumer Confidence Index 76.9 79.3 58.2 58.5
 Present Situation 59.6 67.5 46.5 52.2
 Expectations 88.5 87.2 66.0 62.7
West North Central
 Consumer Confidence Index 70.5 77.5 65.2 60.2
 Present Situation 75.2 76.1 60.9 56.2
 Expectations 67.3 78.4 68.0 63.0
South Atlantic
 Consumer Confidence Index 91.1 87.2 78.9 70.8
 Present Situation 91.2 88.2 81.6 74.1
 Expectations 91.1 86.6 77.1 68.6
East South Central
 Consumer Confidence Index 79.2 76.2 60.7 59.7
 Present Situation 84.6 70.3 56.5 56.0
 Expectations 75.6 80.1 63.4 62.2
West South Central
 Consumer Confidence Index 87.0 94.3 75.1 62.3
 Present Situation 79.3 89.4 68.7 53.3
 Expectations 92.1 97.6 79.4 68.3
Mountain
 Consumer Confidence Index 88.1 97.6 68.8 59.9
 Present Situation 81.3 94.8 62.5 49.2
 Expectations 92.6 99.5 73.1 67.1
Pacific
 Consumer Confidence Index 75.5 69.7 63.3 63.0
 Present Situation 56.2 54.6 51.3 57.9
 Expectations 88.5 79.8 71.2 66.4

Seasonally unadjusted 3-MONTH AVG.
Index numbers: 2003 Mar., Apr., May
U.S. Average, 1985 = 100 Apr.(r) May(p) 2002 2003

New England
 Consumer Confidence Index 66.4 85.3 105.3 69.8
 Present Situation 52.0 68.6 110.1 52.8
 Expectations 76.0 96.5 102.1 81.1
Middle Atlantic
 Consumer Confidence Index 68.4 69.6 94.4 64.3
 Present Situation 58.2 51.7 86.4 54.1
 Expectations 75.2 81.6 99.8 71.0
East North Central
 Consumer Confidence Index 73.4 69.6 104.8 67.2
 Present Situation 60.9 51.7 98.5 54.9
 Expectations 81.8 81.6 108.9 75.4
West North Central
 Consumer Confidence Index 63.6 85.7 101.2 69.8
 Present Situation 59.2 82.4 105.4 65.9
 Expectations 66.6 87.9 98.4 72.5
South Atlantic
 Consumer Confidence Index 93.4 88.8 117.7 84.3
 Present Situation 96.7 82.4 121.1 84.4
 Expectations 91.2 93.1 115.5 84.3
East South Central
 Consumer Confidence Index 79.4 84.8 99.8 74.7
 Present Situation 79.7 70.1 95.4 68.6
 Expectations 79.3 94.6 102.7 78.7
West South Central
 Consumer Confidence Index 92.7 101.2 116.6 85.4
 Present Situation 91.8 95.0 119.2 80.0
 Expectations 93.3 105.4 114.9 89.0
Mountain
 Consumer Confidence Index 94.9 84.3 119.0 79.7
 Present Situation 80.3 64.0 116.9 64.5
 Expectations 104.6 97.8 120.5 89.8
Pacific
 Consumer Confidence Index 75.9 78.7 111.0 72.5
 Present Situation 57.5 46.2 100.5 53.9
 Expectations 88.1 100.3 118.0 84.9

Seasonally unadjusted
Index numbers: Percent
U.S. Average, 1985 = 100 Change *

New England
 Consumer Confidence Index -33.7
 Present Situation -52.0
 Expectations -20.6
Middle Atlantic
 Consumer Confidence Index -31.9
 Present Situation -37.4
 Expectations -28.8
East North Central
 Consumer Confidence Index -35.9
 Present Situation -44.2
 Expectations -30.8
West North Central
 Consumer Confidence Index -31.0
 Present Situation -37.5
 Expectations -26.3
South Atlantic
 Consumer Confidence Index -28.4
 Present Situation -30.3
 Expectations -27.0
East South Central
 Consumer Confidence Index -25.2
 Present Situation -28.1
 Expectations -23.3
West South Central
 Consumer Confidence Index -26.8
 Present Situation -32.9
 Expectations -22.6
Mountain
 Consumer Confidence Index -33.1
 Present Situation -44.8
 Expectations -25.4
Pacific
 Consumer Confidence Index -34.7
 Present Situation -46.4
 Expectations -28.0

(p) - preliminary

(r) - revised

* Percent Change: Average of last three months shown as compared with
the same period a year ago. Regional data are not adjusted for seasonal
variation.
COPYRIGHT 2003 Conference Board, Inc.
No portion of this article can be reproduced without the express written permission from the copyright holder.
Copyright 2003, Gale Group. All rights reserved. Gale Group is a Thomson Corporation Company.

 Reader Opinion

Title:

Comment:



 

Article Details
Printer friendly Cite/link Email Feedback
Author:Franco, Lynn
Publication:Consumer Confidence Survey
Geographic Code:1USA
Date:Jun 1, 2003
Words:3853
Previous Article:Consumer confidence survey.
Next Article:Consumer Confidence flat.
Topics:


Related Articles
Consumer confidence falls to lowest level since 1993.
The Conference Board's Consumer Confidence Index.
Consumer confidence slips further.
Consumer confidence survey.
Consumer confidence pick ups.
Consumers considerably less confident.
Consumers confidence flat in March.
Consumer confidence increases again.
Consumer confidence slips again.
Consumer confidence declines.

Terms of use | Copyright © 2014 Farlex, Inc. | Feedback | For webmasters