Consumer confidence slips again.October October: see month. Results The Conference Board's Consumer Confidence Index Consumer Confidence Index A measure of consumer views regarding the current economic situation and consumer expectations for the future. Information for the index is compiled and released on the last Tuesday of each month by the Conference Board, an , which had declined in September September: see month. , posted another loss in October. The Index now stands at 92.8 (1985=100), down from 96.7 in September. The Expectations Index declined to 92.0 from 97.7 last month. The Present Situation Index edged down to 94.2 from 95.3. The Consumer Confidence Survey is based on a representative sample of 5,000 U.S. households. The monthly survey is conducted for The Conference Board by TNS TNS transcutaneous neural stimulation. NFO NFO Info File (file type extension) NFO New Fund Offer NFO National Farmers Organization NFO Naval Flight Officer (US Navy) NFO National Family Opinion . TNS NFO is one of the TNS group of companies (LSE LSE - Language Sensitive Editor : TNN TNN The National Network (formerly The Nashville Network) TNN The Nashville Network (now The National Network) TNN The Nerd Network (online gaming clan) ). The cutoff date for October's preliminary results was October 19th. Consumers' assessment of overall current conditions was mixed. The percentage saying business conditions are "good" declined to 21.7 percent from 23.4 percent, while respondents In the context of marketing research, a representative sample drawn from a larger population of people from whom information is collected and used to develop or confirm marketing strategy. expressing the opposite view edged up to 21.4 percent from 20.4 percent. On the employment front, consumers saying jobs are "plentiful plen·ti·ful adj. 1. Existing in great quantity or ample supply. 2. Providing or producing an abundance: a plentiful harvest. " increased to 17.4 percent from 16.6 percent, while those claiming jobs are "hard to get" eased to 27.8 percent from 28.0 percent in September. Consumers' short-term Short-term Any investments with a maturity of one year or less. short-term 1. Of or relating to a gain or loss on the value of an asset that has been held less than a specified period of time. outlook turned more cautious. Those anticipating conditions to worsen wors·en tr. & intr.v. wors·ened, wors·en·ing, wors·ens To make or become worse. worsen Verb to make or become worse worsening adjn increased to 10.3 percent from 9.4 percent. Consumers expecting business conditions to improve decreased to 20.6 percent from 21.6 percent last month. The employment outlook was also more subdued sub·due tr.v. sub·dued, sub·du·ing, sub·dues 1. To conquer and subjugate; vanquish. See Synonyms at defeat. 2. To quiet or bring under control by physical force or persuasion; make tractable. 3. . Consumers expecting fewer jobs to become available in the coming months rose to 18.4 percent from 16.2 percent, while those anticipating more jobs to become available slipped to 16.5 percent from 17.8 percent. The proportion of consumers expecting their incomes to improve in the months ahead edged down to 18.4 percent from 20.0 percent last month. Subdued expectations, as opposed op·pose v. op·posed, op·pos·ing, op·pos·es v.tr. 1. To be in contention or conflict with: oppose the enemy force. 2. to eroding present-day pres·ent-day adj. Now in existence or progress; current: present-day attitudes about the family. present-day Adjective conditions, were the major cause behind October's decline in consumer confidence. And, while consumers' assessment of the labor market labor market A place where labor is exchanged for wages; an LM is defined by geography, education and technical expertise, occupation, licensure or certification requirements, and job experience this month showed a moderate improvement, the gain was not sufficient to ease concerns about job growth in the months ahead.
Consumer Confidence and Buying Plans
Based on surveys conducted by TNS NFO
Percentage of households = 100%
2003
Oct. Nov. Dec. Jan.
Composite Series: Index Numbers, 1985=100
Consumer Confidence Index 81.7 92.5 94.8 97.7
Present Situation 67.0 81.0 76.0 86.1
Expectations 91.5 100.1 107.4 105.3
Appraisal of Present Situation: Percent
Business Conditions
Good 17.1 19.9 18.1 21.8
Bad 28.1 23.6 23.7 23.1
Normal 54.8 56.5 58.2 55.1
Employment
Jobs plentiful 11.8 13.5 13.0 14.9
Jobs not so plentiful 54.5 56.9 55.6 55.4
Jobs hard to get 33.7 29.6 31.4 29.7
Expectations for Six Months Hence: Percent
Business Conditions
Better 23.5 24.5 28.0 27.0
Worse 11.0 7.2 6.8 6.9
Same 65.5 68.3 65.2 66.1
Employment
More jobs 19.6 18.5 20.0 20.0
Fewer jobs 20.4 18.0 15.1 15.2
Same 60.0 63.5 63.7 64.8
Income
Increase 16.9 20.2 21.7 18.2
Decrease 10.8 9.6 9.69 8.6
Same 72.3 70.2 68.7 73.2
Plans to Buy Within Six Months: Percent
Automobile
Yes 6.6 5.8 6.2 6.7
New 3.0 2.2 2.8 2.5
Used 2.7 2.8 2.7 3.1
Uncertain 0.9 0.8 0.7 1.1
Home
Yes 3.2 3.0 3.2 3.5
New 1.0 0.5 0.8 1.0
Lived in 1.2 2.0 1.5 1.6
Uncertain 1.0 0.5 0.9 0.9
Major appliances
Total plans 26.7 29.0 27.5 28.3
Refrigerator 4.4 4.3 4.4 4.9
Washing machine 3.2 3.7 3.1 3.7
TV Set 7.0 7.2 7.0 6.5
Vacuum Cleaner 4.6 4.7 4.7 4.9
Range 3.1 3.6 3.1 3.0
Clothes dryer 3.0 3.5 3.2 3.3
Air conditioner 1.4 2.0 2.0 2.0
Carpet 5.0 5.3 5.4 5.8
Vacation Intended Within Six Months: Percent
Vacation Intended 46.3 45.9
Destination
U.S. 38.3 38.0
Foreign country 8.9 8.7
Means of Travel
Automobile 25.8 25.8
Airplane 17.3 16.7
Other 4.0 3.9
Business
Feb. Mar. Apr. May
Composite Series: Index Numbers, 1985=100
Consumer Confidence Index 88.5 88.5 93.0 93.1
Present Situation 83.3 84.4 90.4 90.5
Expectations 91.9 91.3 94.8 94.8
Appraisal of Present Situation: Percent
Business Conditions
Good 19.3 20.7 21.7 22.2
Bad 23.2 23.1 21.7 21.6
Normal 57.5 56.2 56.6 56.2
Employment
Jobs plentiful 14.5 14.7 15.6 16.6
Jobs not so plentiful 56.6 55.4 56.4 53.1
Jobs hard to get 28.9 29.9 28.0 30.3
Expectations for Six Months Hence: Percent
Business Conditions
Better 19.5 19.5 20.8 22.8
Worse 9.6 9.7 9.3 10.1
Same 70.9 70.8 69.9 67.1
Employment
More jobs 16.4 15.7 18.3 18.7
Fewer jobs 18.8 17.3 17.7 17.3
Same 64.8 67.0 64.0 64.0
Income
Increase 17.1 18.0 17.4 17.1
Decrease 8.4 10.1 9.6 10.2
Same 74.5 71.9 73.0 72.7
Plans to Buy Within Six Months: Percent
Automobile
Yes 7.2 5.4 6.6 6.4
New 2.9 2.3 3.3 2.8
Used 3.2 2.4 2.5 2.6
Uncertain 1.1 0.7 0.8 1.0
Home
Yes 3.8 4.2 3.6 4.1
New 1.3 1.4 0.8 1.2
Lived in 1.4 1.8 2.0 1.7
Uncertain 1.1 1.0 0.8 1.2
Major appliances
Total plans 27.5 29.0 31.2 33.0
Refrigerator 3.9 4.6 4.8 5.4
Washing machine 3.7 3.6 3.5 4.3
TV Set 7.4 6.7 7.7 7.9
Vacuum Cleaner 4.80 5.2 5.2 6.2
Range 2.6 3.4 3.7 2.8
Clothes dryer 3.2 3.7 3.9 4.2
Air conditioner 1.9 1.8 2.4 2.2
Carpet 4.7 5.2 4.8 5.9
Vacation Intended Within Six Months: Percent
Vacation Intended 43.0 42.7
Destination
U.S. 36.6 36.3
Foreign country 8.0 8.3
Means of Travel
Automobile 23.7 22.4
Airplane 17.6 20.6
Other 3.6 3.7
Employment
2004
June July Aug. Sep. (r)
Composite Series: Index Numbers, 1985=100
Consumer Confidence Index 102.8 105.7 98.7 96.7
Present Situation 105.9 106.4 100.7 95.3
Expectations 100.8 105.3 97.3 97.7
Appraisal of Present Situation: Percent
Business Conditions
Good 25.8 25.2 23.0 23.4
Bad 17.4 19.1 20.2 20.4
Normal 56.8 55.7 56.8 56.2
Employment
Jobs plentiful 18.3 19.7 18.4 16.6
Jobs not so plentiful 55.5 54.6 55.6 55.4
Jobs hard to get 26.2 25.7 26.0 28.0
Expectations for Six Months Hence: Percent
Business Conditions
Better 23.5 23.0 20.0 21.6
Worse 9.1 7.1 8.8 9.4
Same 67.4 69.9 71.0 69.0
Employment
More jobs 19.9 19.5 16.3 17.8
Fewer jobs 16.8 13.5 15.1 16.2
Same 63.3 67.0 68.6 66.0
Income
Increase 19.7 18.0 19.7 20.0
Decrease 8.6 8.5 9.2 9.2
Same 71.7 73.5 71.1 70.8
Plans to Buy Within Six Months: Percent
Automobile
Yes 6.4 6.8 6.5 6.3
New 3.0 3.3 2.9 2.6
Used 2.8 2.5 2.5 2.5
Uncertain 0.6 1.0 1.1 1.2
Home
Yes 3.6 4.1 3.9 3.9
New 1.0 0.9 1.3 1.0
Lived in 1.5 2.1 1.7 2.0
Uncertain 1.1 1.1 0.9 0.9
Major appliances
Total plans 34.3 30.4 29.0 29.8
Refrigerator 5.5 4.1 4.2 5.1
Washing machine 4.7 4.5 3.6 3.6
TV Set 7.9 7.4 7.5 6.6
Vacuum Cleaner 5.4 5.4 5.5 5.8
Range 3.7 3.2 3.0 3.4
Clothes dryer 5.1 3.8 3.4 3.0
Air conditioner 2.0 2.0 1.8 2.3
Carpet 6.5 6.0 5.4 5.3
Vacation Intended Within Six Months: Percent
Vacation Intended 42.7 42.1
Destination
U.S. 35.5 34.9
Foreign country 9.3 8.4
Means of Travel
Automobile 22.4 21.8
Airplane 20.5 18.5
Other 3.9 4.1
Income
Oct.(p)
Composite Series: Index Numbers, 1985=100
Consumer Confidence Index 92.8
Present Situation 94.2
Expectations 92.0
Appraisal of Present Situation: Percent
Business Conditions
Good 21.7
Bad 21.4
Normal 56.9
Employment
Jobs plentiful 17.4
Jobs not so plentiful 54.8
Jobs hard to get 27.8
Expectations for Six Months Hence: Percent
Business Conditions
Better 20.6
Worse 10.3
Same 69.1
Employment
More jobs 16.5
Fewer jobs 18.4
Same 65.1
Income
Increase 18.4
Decrease 9.4
Same 72.2
Plans to Buy Within Six Months: Percent
Automobile
Yes 7.4
New 3.1
Used 3.1
Uncertain 1.2
Home
Yes 3.5
New 0.9
Lived in 1.3
Uncertain 1.3
Major appliances
Total plans 27.1
Refrigerator 4.3
Washing machine 3.7
TV Set 7.2
Vacuum Cleaner 4.4
Range 3.1
Clothes dryer 3.1
Air conditioner 1.3
Carpet 4.9
Vacation Intended Within Six Months: Percent
Vacation Intended 47.8
Destination
U.S. 39.9
Foreign country 9.2
Means of Travel
Automobile 25.5
Airplane 18.3
Other 4.7
(p) - preliminary (r) - revised
Inflation Interest Rates Stock Prices
Not Seasonally 2003
Adjusted Oct. Nov. Dec. Jan. Feb. Mar.
Expectations for Twelve Months Hence: Percent
Inflation Rate
Average 4.5 4.4 4.3 4.3 4.3 4.6
Interest Rates
Higher 54.5 55.2 56.0 54.0 53.4 54.9
Same 34.3 35.3 33.9 37.2 36.5 35.2
Lower 11.2 9.5 10.1 8.8 10.1 9.9
Stock Prices
Increase 42.2 44.8 44.7 47.2 43.3 39.3
Same 37.5 37.9 36.7 36.5 38.6 39.9
Decrease 20.3 17.3 18.6 16.3 18.1 20.8
Not Seasonally 2004
Adjusted Apr. May June July Aug. Sep.(r) Oct-(p)
Expectations for Twelve Months Hence: Percent
Inflation Rate
Average 4.8 5.2 5.1 4.4 4.5 4.5 5.0
Interest Rates
Higher 55.9 69.8 68.6 75.3 69.7 67.6 70.5
Same 34.1 22.3 23.5 19.3 22.9 26.0 23.1
Lower 10.0 7.9 7.9 5.4 7.4 6.4 6.4
Stock Prices
Increase 39.7 34.6 36.5 39.0 33.5 36.9 33.6
Same 36.9 40.4 40.4 41.3 41.8 41.7 42.2
Decrease 23.4 25.0 23.1 19.7 24.7 21.4 24.2
Not Seasonally
Adjusted Oct-(p)
Expectations for Twelve Months Hence: Percent
Inflation Rate
Average 5.0
Interest Rates
Higher 70.5
Same 23.1
Lower 6.4
Stock Prices
Increase 33.6
Same 42.2
Decrease 24.2
All series seasonally 2003
adjusted Oct. Nov. Dec. Jan. Feb.
Consumer Confidence Index, 1985 = 100
Age of Household Head
Under 35 88.8 98.7 101.9 111.5 101.7
35-54 84.6 92.0 92.2 91.2 85.5
55 and over 74.6 88.7 93.3 97.3 83.6
Household Income
Under $15,000 61.7 67.3 64.3 69.1 63.5
$15,000-24,999 60.9 68.6 74.2 85.2 65.8
$25,000-34,999 76.3 82.0 89.9 92.9 82.8
$35,000-49,999 87.7 96.4 93.0 95.2 84.3
$50,000 and over 93.1 108.1 110.9 112.0 107.1
All series seasonally 2004
adjusted Mar. Apr. May June July
Consumer Confidence Index, 1985 = 100
Age of Household Head
Under 35 101.7 105.5 99.2 113.5 112.1
35-54 88.2 89.8 94.8 102.4 103.8
55 and over 81.4 88.8 87.2 96.9 103.4
Household Income
Under $15,000 61.5 63.4 66.4 69.8 71.6
$15,000-24,999 69.4 76.2 68.3 90.9 89.0
$25,000-34,999 88.0 88.2 85.2 100.1 93.9
$35,000-49,999 79.6 96.9 90.7 104.3 101.7
$50,000 and over 105.9 107.5 111.4 116.6 125.2
3 mos.
All series seasonally Percent
adjusted Aug. Sep.(r) Oct-(p)Change *
Consumer Confidence Index, 1985 = 100
Age of Household Head
Under 35 114.6 109.3 105.9 1.5
35-54 95.3 97.9 95.6 -3.7
55 and over 95.7 90.3 84.0 -6.1
Household Income
Under $15,000 66.2 61.1 57.5 -11.0
$15,000-24,999 83.6 78.1 73.3 -5.3
$25,000-34,999 79.5 94.5 93.9 -4.1
$35,000-49,999 104.9 97.7 90.0 -1.4
$50,000 and over 116.6 113.6 109.6 -3.8
* Percent Change: Average of last three months shown as compared
with preceding three months.
Age and Income data have been adjusted for seasonal variations.
Seasonally unadjusted
Index numbers: 2003
U.S. Average, 1985 = 100 Sept. Oct. Nov. Dec.
New England
Consumer Confidence Index 73.4 75.5 104.2 92.5
Present Situation 55.5 57.4 103.3 72.7
Expectations 85.3 87.6 104.8 105.7
Middle Atlantic
Consumer Confidence Index 65.3 69.4 80.5 78.1
Present Situation 45.3 57.6 70.3 60.9
Expectations 78.6 77.3 87.3 89.6
East North Central
Consumer Confidence Index 70.9 74.9 90.4 90.0
Present Situation 54.1 67.5 74.7 62.7
Expectations 82.2 79.8 100.8 108.2
West North Central
Consumer Confidence Index 74.1 80.7 88.1 94.5
Present Situation 64.4 67.4 71.3 78.9
Expectations 80.6 89.6 99.3 104.9
South Atlantic
Consumer Confidence Index 84.8 98.9 103.9 106.1
Present Situation 80.4 93.2 105.3 107.3
Expectations 87.7 102.7 103.0 105.4
East South Central
Consumer Confidence Index 67.4 95.5 98.7 84.5
Present Situation 57.8 94.7 104.7 69.8
Expectations 73.8 96.0 94.7 94.3
West South Central
Consumer Confidence Index 90.6 86.7 97.0 99.7
Present Situation 77.9 68.8 83.1 82.4
Expectations 99.1 98.6 106.2 111.3
Mountain
Consumer Confidence Index 96.6 104.9 102.8 105.1
Present Situation 77.4 96.6 95.0 92.0
Expectations 109.3 110.4 108.1 113.9
Pacific
Consumer Confidence Index 77.7 86.1 92.4 90.6
Present Situation 56.9 62.5 71.8 70.9
Expectations 91.5 101.9 106.1 103.8
Seasonally unadjusted
Index numbers: 2004
U.S. Average, 1985 = 100 Jan. Feb. Mar. Apr.
New England
Consumer Confidence Index 98.2 81.3 85.8 81.2
Present Situation 86.5 48.8 71.3 74.8
Expectations 106.1 103.0 95.5 85.5
Middle Atlantic
Consumer Confidence Index 83.6 72.6 69.4 83.7
Present Situation 62.5 65.8 56.9 72.2
Expectations 97.7 77.2 77.7 91.4
East North Central
Consumer Confidence Index 83.6 71.4 74.4 75.3
Present Situation 61.1 51.9 55.6 56.6
Expectations 98.6 84.4 87.0 87.9
West North Central
Consumer Confidence Index 96.4 93.3 89.4 100.1
Present Situation 85.0 77.2 84.5 103.9
Expectations 104.0 104.0 92.6 97.6
South Atlantic
Consumer Confidence Index 109.6 105.7 104.7 103.0
Present Situation 106.6 106.2 112.7 114.5
Expectations 111.6 105.3 99.3 95.3
East South Central
Consumer Confidence Index 102.2 91.5 84.6 83.0
Present Situation 94.8 79.0 74.8 81.9
Expectations 107.2 99.9 91.2 83.8
West South Central
Consumer Confidence Index 108.0 95.5 95.0 103.4
Present Situation 92.5 83.4 80.4 95.7
Expectations 118.3 103.6 104.8 108.6
Mountain
Consumer Confidence Index 119.0 104.3 98.4 100.2
Present Situation 102.6 93.2 92.0 106.4
Expectations 130.0 111.7 102.6 96.1
Pacific
Consumer Confidence Index 96.9 94.1 93.2 93.3
Present Situation 75.1 80.6 78.4 77.9
Expectations 111.5 103.1 103.1 103.5
Seasonally unadjusted
Index numbers: 2004
U.S. Average, 1985 = 100 May June July Aug.
New England
Consumer Confidence Index 81.8 100.1 101.4 82.3
Present Situation 79.8 101.0 102.9 95.5
Expectations 83.1 99.6 100.3 73.5
Middle Atlantic
Consumer Confidence Index 78.8 82.9 89.5 84.9
Present Situation 72.5 83.1 92.4 92.3
Expectations 82.9 82.8 87.5 80.0
East North Central
Consumer Confidence Index 79.3 79.8 87.4 82.2
Present Situation 68.9 82.6 79.7 73.6
Expectations 86.3 78.0 92.5 88.0
West North Central
Consumer Confidence Index 86.3 100.0 109.9 96.0
Present Situation 93.2 108.6 116.5 100.5
Expectations 81.8 94.3 105.6 92.9
South Atlantic
Consumer Confidence Index 109.4 118.8 117.5 104.1
Present Situation 121.5 134.7 127.5 116.6
Expectations 101.4 108.2 110.9 95.8
East South Central
Consumer Confidence Index 80.9 105.1 104.2 97.9
Present Situation 79.2 115.3 107.7 99.4
Expectations 82.1 98.3 101.8 96.9
West South Central
Consumer Confidence Index 92.9 109.3 104.6 106.4
Present Situation 89.7 110.3 110.4 104.8
Expectations 95.0 108.7 100.7 107.5
Mountain
Consumer Confidence Index 99.3 122.0 112.7 106.1
Present Situation 98.3 127.7 118.7 109.5
Expectations 100.0 118.2 108.7 103.9
Pacific
Consumer Confidence Index 96.1 103.3 111.4 104.4
Present Situation 82.5 103.6 109.0 107.7
Expectations 105.1 103.2 113.1 102.2
Seasonally unadjusted
Index numbers:
U.S. Average, 1985 = 100 Sep.(r) Oct.(p)
New England
Consumer Confidence Index 77.1 84.8
Present Situation 83.3 88.7
Expectations 72.9 82.2
Middle Atlantic
Consumer Confidence Index 89.0 76.8
Present Situation 80.7 85.8
Expectations 94.6 70.9
East North Central
Consumer Confidence Index 77.4 78.0
Present Situation 69.1 80.6
Expectations 82.9 76.3
West North Central
Consumer Confidence Index 95.1 92.3
Present Situation 103.1 101.8
Expectations 89.8 86.0
South Atlantic
Consumer Confidence Index 110.8 114.8
Present Situation 122.1 124.0
Expectations 103.3 108.7
East South Central
Consumer Confidence Index 89.4 108.0
Present Situation 101.2 114.9
Expectations 81.6 103.4
West South Central
Consumer Confidence Index 107.8 104.6
Present Situation 103.2 107.0
Expectations 110.9 103.0
Mountain
Consumer Confidence Index 116.0 111.1
Present Situation 137.9 113.6
Expectations 101.5 109.5
Pacific
Consumer Confidence Index 106.3 102.7
Present Situation 105.7 101.3
Expectations 106.7 103.7
Seasonally unadjusted 3-MONTH AVG.
Index numbers: Aug., Sep. Oct Percent
U.S. Average, 1985 = 100 2003 2004 Change
New England
Consumer Confidence Index 72.9 81.4 11.6
Present Situation 54.8 89.1 62.6
Expectations 85.0 76.2 -10.4
Middle Atlantic
Consumer Confidence Index 70.2 83.6 19.0
Present Situation 54.1 86.2 59.3
Expectations 81.0 81.8 1.1
East North Central
Consumer Confidence Index 71.4 79.2 11.0
Present Situation 56.1 74.4 32.8
Expectations 81.6 82.4 1.0
West North Central
Consumer Confidence Index 74.3 94.5 27.2
Present Situation 59.3 101.8 71.8
Expectations 84.3 89.6 6.3
South Atlantic
Consumer Confidence Index 90.8 109.9 21.0
Present Situation 83.6 120.9 44.7
Expectations 95.7 102.6 7.2
East South Central
Consumer Confidence Index 82.4 98.4 19.4
Present Situation 75.0 105.2 40.3
Expectations 87.4 94.0 7.5
West South Central
Consumer Confidence Index 86.4 106.3 22.9
Present Situation 69.0 105.0 52.1
Expectations 98.0 107.1 9.3
Mountain
Consumer Confidence Index 96.4 111.1 15.2
Present Situation 81.1 120.3 48.4
Expectations 106.6 105.0 -1.6
Pacific
Consumer Confidence Index 83.1 104.5 25.7
Present Situation 61.1 104.9 71.8
Expectations 97:8 104.2 6.5
* Percent Change: Average of last three months shown as compared with
the same period a year ago. Regional data are not adjusted for
seasonal variation
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