Conservatives tipped for EU vote win

If, as expected, barely a third of eligible voters turn out for next month's European Parliament elections, the predicted conservative win will have something of a hollow ring to it.

Opinion surveys agree: the conservative European People's Party (EPP) bloc is likely to secure the biggest number of seats in the 736-seat assembly, giving it another five years dominating the parliament.

The question then, is how many of Europe's 375 million electors will bother to cast their vote in the June 4-7 election?

A European poll from the beginning of the year suggested that only one in three (34 percent) of eligible voters would head to the ballot boxes.

If that did happen, it would set a new record low after the 45 percent turnout in 2004 -- but then participation has been on a steady decline since 1979.

The European Parliament is the only EU institution elected by universal suffrage. The conservative EPP has gradually gained power there over the years, although this remains limited.

They are sufficiently confident of victory to have already named Poland's Jerzy Buzek and Italy's Mario Mauro to preside over the house, which meets in Strasbourg, eastern France and Brussels.

The economic crisis has been one of the dominant campaigning issues in many of the 27 EU countries -- from Ireland to Hungary, as well as Spain, France and Germany. But surveys give no sign it will benefit the centre left.

Despite its efforts to blame the EPP for the crisis, the Party of European Socialists (PES) is expected to remain the assembly's second power, with the current balance between the two blocs being maintained.

The eurosceptic parties could "win a few extra seats", helped notably by the formation of the new Libertas movement, said Julia De Clerck-Sachsse from the European Policy Centre think tank in Brussels.

And they could even become a more coherent political force by linking up with the conservative British and Czech parties, who have abandoned the EPP.

But not enough to upset the European apple cart, she added.

Under those conditions, and given the lack of challengers, former Portuguese leader Jose Manuel Barroso -- from the EPP -- is expected to be granted a new term at the head of the EU's executive body, the European Commission.

Indeed his confirmation as head of this unelected institution -- assuming he is nominated, as expected, by EU leaders in mid-June -- is likely to be one of the first jobs undertaken by the new assembly.

But turnout -- or the lack of it -- remains the real cloud on the horizon.

"Our main battle is the fight against abstention," French Agriculture Minister Michel Barnier said last week, as he campaigned for the ruling conservative UMP party.

Perhaps the greatest concern for pro-Europeans is what will happen in the newer members of the bloc, such as Poland or the Czech Republic, said Romanian euro-deputy Daniel Daianu.

EU enthusiasm has waned since they joined in 2004. Low turnout could blight the polls there as much as in the older European nations.

The reasons voters seem set to stay away are many, said Andreas Maurer, an analyst at Germany's SWP institute.

A lack of truly European issues in campaigning, poor knowledge about the powers or even the role of the assembly, and closed-door discussions and sterile debates in plenary session are just a few.

Maurer also said that the absence of any real European intellectual personalities, Greens leader Daniel Cohn-Bendit aside, had robbed the debate of some of its punch and relevance.