Consensus forecast/Pronostico de consenso.Mexico Dependent Economic boom not likely, but Mexico will grow, assuming recovery in the United States United States, officially United States of America, republic (2005 est. pop. 295,734,000), 3,539,227 sq mi (9,166,598 sq km), North America. The United States is the world's third largest country in population and the fourth largest country in area. , which consumes 90% of Mexico's exports. Losing ground to China as major supplier to the world's biggest economy. Distracted Politicians Infrastructure lacks, not clear President Fox will spend to update it. Coming 2006 presidential, elections mean two years of stagnation Stagnation A period of little or no growth in the economy. Economic growth of less than 2-3% is considered stagnation. Sometimes used to describe low trading volume or inactive trading in securities. Notes: A good example of stagnation was the U.S. economy in the 1970s. . Remittances
Remittances are transfers of money by foreign workers to their home countries. Soar Mexicans in the United States keep sending money home--on track to exceed US$16 billion annually--a boon Boon A general term that refers to a benefit or improvement for investors. This can include such things as increased dividends, a stock market rally and stock buybacks. Notes: to the economy. Venezuela Recall Rout rout: see riot, rout, and unlawful assembly. President Chavez wins referendum, adding stability, but dissent An explicit disagreement by one or more judges with the decision of the majority on a case before them. A dissent is often accompanied by a written dissenting opinion, and the terms dissent and dissenting opinion are used interchangeably. remains high. Will, they ever accept his rule? Corruption grows. Growth on Horizon Government sees 3% to 5% growth in 2005, following 10.5% jump in 2004. State oil giant Petroleos de Venezuela predicts new stability on record-high world oil prices. Court Order The government controls electoral and constitutional arms of Supreme Court, putting Chavez in charge on judicial matters. Colombia Uribe's Agenda Constitution change could allow President Uribe's reelection re·e·lect also re-e·lect tr.v. re·e·lect·ed, re·e·lect·ing, re·e·lects To elect again. re . If it passes, Uribe must fight the urge to become another Latin American strongman. Peace negotiations continue. Free Trade Talks proceed with the United States on free trade worth billions of dollars to Andean countries. Trade unions could stand in the way. Money Woes Government could cut benefits to save pension system. Public accounts US$40 billion in the red and a $2.3 billion IMF IMF See: International Monetary Fund IMF See International Monetary Fund (IMF). loan expires in December. Ecuador Tightrope Political turbulence turbulence, state of violent or agitated behavior in a fluid. Turbulent behavior is characteristic of systems of large numbers of particles, and its unpredictability and randomness has long thwarted attempts to fully understand it, even with such powerful tools as and troubled budgets keep President Gutierrez on his toes. Congressional pressure to spend could undermine reform. Deficit at US$550 million, with no multilateral mul·ti·lat·er·al adj. 1. Having many sides. 2. Involving more than two nations or parties: multilateral trade agreements. , help in sight. Balanced Budget Balanced budget A budget in which the income equals expenditure. See: budget. balanced budget A budget in which the expenditures incurred during a given period are matched by revenues. Social-security reforms threaten fiscal balance. Nevertheless, higher tax collections help government hit targets. On Hold President Gutierrez's second shot at oil-sector reform dies in Congress, but new investment rules could emerge in 2005. State-run Petroecuador needs the money: Production is in decline. Brazil Growth Impressive industrial output drives economic expansion of 3.5% in 2005. Inflation a risk. President Lula must keep a lid on spending. Leaps and Bounds Brazilian exports--driven by soy and steel to China--grow annually by 50%, heating up the economy. Government predicts US$100 billion in exports by 2006. Buying In Buying in has several meanings. In the securities market it refers to a process by which the buyer of securities, whose seller fails to deliver the securities contracted for, can 'buy in' the securities from a third party with the defaulting seller to make good. Government tax breaks attracting more hard currency. Foreign direct investment should hit US$15 billion in 2005, half of the 2000 high. Peru Cautiously Optimistic op·ti·mist n. 1. One who usually expects a favorable outcome. 2. A believer in philosophical optimism. op Economy is growing; budget in the black. Inflation could trigger rate hikes, though, as poverty rises. U.S. free-trade talks perhaps too Late for current administration. Check and Balance Accused of corruption, President Toledo submits to an audit. Smart or risky? We'll soon find out. Open for Business US$1.6 billion Camisea gas plant opens. Promises cheap energy at home and export income, but many worry about the environment and tourism. Argentina I.O.U. Finance Minister to restructure US$100 billion foreign debt without the International Monetary Fund's blessing. Can Argentina survive on its own? Wealth Distribution Government raises minimum wage, public pensions and welfare to combat poverty affecting more than 40% of population. Watch out for inflation and tower economic growth long-term. Slipping Satisfaction with President Kirchner's administration declining. Crime, energy shortages and unemployment threaten as 2005 congressional elections loom loom, frame or machine used for weaving; there is evidence that the loom has been in use since 4400 B.C. Modern looms are of two types, those with a shuttle (the part that carries the weft through the shed) and those without; the latter draw the weft from a . Chile Trade Boom Exports and imports increasing quickly. Economy should grow almost 5% in 2005. Nevertheless, joblessness hits 9.6%--the highest since 2001. Copper is king on Chinese demand. Retired Rich Former dictator dictator, originally a Roman magistrate appointed to rule the state in times of emergency; in modern usage, an absolutist or autocratic ruler who assumes extraconstitutional powers. From 501 B.C. until the abolition of the office in 44 B.C., Rome had 88 dictators. Pinochet is being investigated for millions of dollars in secret bank accounts. Regardless of the findings, his neoliberal ne·o·lib·er·al·ism n. A political movement beginning in the 1960s that blends traditional liberal concerns for social justice with an emphasis on economic growth. ne economic legacy is tarnished. Leading Ladies Chile may see its first woman president next year. Favorites are Michelle Bachelet Verónica Michelle Bachelet Jeria (born September 29 1951) is a center-left politician and the current President of Chile—the first woman to hold this position in the country's history. , Defense Minister, and Soledad Alvear María Soledad Alvear Valenzuela (b. September 17 1950), is a Chilean lawyer and Christian Democrat politician, who was a cabinet member of the Aylwin, Frei and Lagos administrations. She is currently a senator and the president of the Christian Democrat Party (PDC). , Foreign Minister. Central America Central America, narrow, southernmost region (c.202,200 sq mi/523,698 sq km) of North America, linked to South America at Colombia. It separates the Caribbean from the Pacific. and the Caribbean Dominican Deja Vu See DjVu. Leonel Fernandez is president once again, after a four-year hiatus hiatus /hi·a·tus/ (hi-a´tus) [L.] an opening, gap, or cleft.hia´tal aortic hiatus the opening in the diaphragm through which the aorta and thoracic duct pass. , promising to ease the current economic crisis by cutting government spending Government spending or government expenditure consists of government purchases, which can be financed by seigniorage, taxes, or government borrowing. It is considered to be one of the major components of gross domestic product. . Salvadoran Scramble To encode (encrypt) data in order to make it indecipherable without having a secret key to "unlock" it. The term came from the early days of cryptography which camouflaged analog transmissions with secret frequency patterns. President Saca provides continuous pro-business government, but cleaning up decades of civil wars, hurricanes and earthquakes is a real test. Free trade helps, and hurts, as assembly plants face Asian competitors. Panama Pop President Torrijos names salsa musician Ruben Blades Tourism Minister and raises the position to Cabinet level. Blades to work with the justice system to improve prison conditions. Honduran Currency Dollarization dol·lar·i·za·tion n. The replacement of a country's system of currency with U.S. dollars. unlikely; government hopes its monetary policy will accelerate the economy. Costa Rican Coffee President Pacheco hopes to strike deal to export coffee to China via Taiwan, giving a jolt to the economy. Nicaragua Struggles Government aims for 5% growth, yet the country battles Haiti for crown as hemisphere's poorest. Rest of South America South America, fourth largest continent (1991 est. pop. 299,150,000), c.6,880,000 sq mi (17,819,000 sq km), the southern of the two continents of the Western Hemisphere. Bolivian Resources A new petroleum tax on foreign gas companies brings in tens of millions of dollars. Gas soon to move through Peru, but government debt hits 6.5% of GDP GDP (guanosine diphosphate): see guanine. . Half of all Bolivians officially poor. Paraguayan Progress Government plan to privatize pri·va·tize tr.v. pri·va·tized, pri·va·tiz·ing, pri·va·tiz·es To change (an industry or business, for example) from governmental or public ownership or control to private enterprise: "The strike ... state industries sparks protest. Multilateral Lenders commend com·mend tr.v. com·mend·ed, com·mend·ing, com·mends 1. To represent as worthy, qualified, or desirable; recommend. 2. To express approval of; praise. See Synonyms at praise. 3. government structural and education reforms. Uruguay's Recovery Government changes March 2005. Recovery should continue, barring major crises for Uruguay's bigger neighbors. Private estimates see growth topping phenomenal 10% in 2004, then 3% in 2005, though U5$15 billion debt lingers.
CONSENSUS FORECAST
REAL GDP
% change
'03 GDP '03 GDP '03
US$ per capita POPULATION
billion US$ million 2003 2004E 2005F
ARGENTINA 129.7 3,339 38.9 8.7 7.4 3.8
BRAZIL 497.9 2,690 185.0 -0.2 3.8 3.5
CHILE 72.1 4,476 16.1 3.3 5.0 4.8
COLOMBIA 77.8 1,718 45.3 3.9 3.9 3.7
ECUADOR 27.1 2,082 13.0 2.7 4.8 4.0
MEXICO 626.1 5,978 104.7 1.3 4.1 3.6
PERU 60.6 2,201 27.5 4.1 4.2 3.8
VENEZUELA 84.9 3,250 26.1 -9.2 10.5 3.3
INFLATION EXCHANGE RATES
% change end of period
2003 2004E 2005F 2003 2004E 2005F
ARGENTINA 3.7 7.5 8.4 2.91 2.95 3.04
BRAZIL 9.3 7.1 5.6 2.89 3.13 3.29
CHILE 1.1 2.4 3.0 599 621 630
COLOMBIA 6.5 6.1 5.4 2,778 2,781 2,949
ECUADOR 6.1 3.7 3.3 1.00 1.00 1.00
MEXICO 4.0 4.1 3.8 11.24 11.48 11.80
PERU 2.5 3.0 2.6 3.46 3.50 3.56
VENEZUELA 27.1 27.0 24.3 1,598 2,096 2,657
CURRENT ACCOUNT INT'L RESERVES
% GDP US$ billion
2003 2004E 2005F 2003 2004E 2005F
ARGENTINA 6.3 4.0 1.6 14.2 17.6 17.9
BRAZIL 0.8 0.7 -0.1 49.1 50.6 49.9
CHILE -0.8 1.3 0.5 15.8 16.6 17.1
COLOMBIA -1.9 -1.9 -2.0 10.8 11.5 11.7
ECUADOR -1.6 0.5 0.0 1.2 1.4 1.7
MEXICO -1.5 -1.7 -2.2 57.4 60.3 60.6
PERU -1.7 -1.2 -1.2 10.2 10.7 10.9
VENEZUELA 11.2 10.4 8.6 21.0 23.6 26.3
EXPORTS IMPORTS
US$ billion US$ billion
2003 2004E 2005F 2003 2004E 2005F
ARGENTINA 29.4 32.9 34.6 13.8 20.7 25.0
BRAZIL 73.1 90.6 96.5 50.7 60.5 67.7
CHILE 21.0 26.7 28.6 19.4 21.3 23.0
COLOMBIA 12.7 14.1 14.6 13.9 14.3 15.2
ECUADOR 6.0 6.4 6.9 6.5 6.2 6.9
MEXICO 165.4 180.9 191.3 178.5 190.1 203.7
PERU 9.0 10.5 11.0 8.3 9.0 9.3
VENEZUELA 25.8 31.1 28.2 10.7 16.5 14.8
SOURCE: Banamex, BBVA, Bear Stearns, CS First Boston, Goldman Sachs,
J.P. Morgan Chase, Merrill Lynch, Morgan Stanley, Santander Central
Hispano Investment, Salomon Smith Barney, UBS Warburg, LATIN TRADE
E= ESTIMATE F= FORECAST
WINDOW TO THE WORLD
REAL GDP % change
'03 GDP
'03 GDP per '03
US$ capita POPULATION
billion US$ million 2003 2004E 2005F
UNITED STATES 10,985 37,360 294.0 3.1 4.5 3.8
JAPAN 4,302 33,699 127.7 2.5 4.2 1.8
GERMANY 2,409 29,204 82.5 -0.1 1.7 1.7
UNITED KINGDOM 1,799 30,356 59.3 2.2 3.2 2.7
CHINA 1,410 1,081 1,304.2 9.1 8.7 7.7
LATIN AMERICA 1,694 3,182 532.5 1.6 4.6 3.7
EUROPEAN UNION 11,004 24,227 454.2 1.0 2.2 2.3
ASIA PACIFIC 3.7 5.1 3.3
EASTERN EUROPE 5.6 5.5 5.1
CURRENT ACCOUNT
INFLATION % change US$ billion
2003 2004E 2005F 2003 2004E 2005F
UNITED STATES 2.3 2.6 2.3 -531.0 -595.0 -598.0
JAPAN -0.3 -0.1 0.0 136.0 171.0 178.0
GERMANY 1.1 1.6 1.3 52.9 80.7 81.1
UNITED KINGDOM 2.8 2.4 2.4 -33.3 -48.6 -50.6
CHINA 1.2 3.6 3.5 45.9 18.8 16.9
LATIN AMERICA 7.6 7.4 6.7 8.2 5.3 -8.5
EUROPEAN UNION 2.1 2.0 1.9 -4.8 13.6 14.6
ASIA PACIFIC 0.5 1.1 1.2 261.0 262.0 260.0
EASTERN EUROPE 11.1 8.3 7.4 2.4 -3.7 -18.5
E= ESTIMATE F= FORECAST
SOURCE: Consensus Economics; www.consensuseconomics.com
PRONOSTICO DE CONSENSO Mexico Dependencia No hay boom economico pero el pais crecera, asumiendo que EE.UU.--el destino del 90% de las exportaciones mexicanas--se recupere. Esta perdiendo terreno frente a China como el mayor proveedor de EE.UU. Politicos Hay escasez de infraestructura. Las elecciones presidenciales de 2006 paralizaran un poco el gobierno. Remesas Los mexicanos en EE.UU. continuan enviando dinero a su pais. Se espera que en 2004 esta cifra superara los US$16,000 millones. Venezuela Referendum El presidente Chavez gana ell referendum y genera genera, in taxonomy: see classification. alguna estabillidad. La corrupcion esta en aumento. Crecimiento Despues del 10.5% de crecimiento de 2004, en 2005 el gobierno pronostica un crecimiento entre el 3% y el 5%. La petrolera estatal Petroleos de Venezuela predice que los altos Los Altos (lôs ăl`tōs, lŏs), residential city (1990 pop. 26,303), Santa Clara co., W Calif.; inc. 1952. There is diversified light manufacturing. precios del crudo permaneceran estables. Las cortes El gobierno tiene mucho control sobre la Corte Suprema, lo cual le otorga poderes judiciales a Chavez. Colombia La agenda de Uribe El cambio en la constitucion podria permitir la reeleccion de Uribe. Si sucede, el presidente debe demostrar que no quiere ser otto hombre fuerte latinoamericano. Las negociaciones de paz continuan. Libre comercio Las negociaciones del tratado de libre comercio de los paises andinos con EE.UU. continuan. Deuda El gobierno podria recortar beneficios para salvar el sistema de pensiones. La deuda externa suma US$40,000 millones y un prestamo del FMI FMI Fondo Monetario Internacional (Spanish: International Monetary Fund) FMI Fonds Monétaire International FMI For More Information FMI Food Marketing Institute FMI Fundo Monetário Internacional por US$2,300 millones se vence en diciembre. Ecuador En la cuerda floja La turbulencia politica Politica is the undergraduate journal of the Department of Political Science at the University of California, Berkeley. Politica solicits original student essays on topics broadly political. y los presupuestos tienen en aprietos al presidente Gutierrez. La presion del Congreso para aumentar el gasto podria echar a perder las reformas. Hay un deficit de US$550 millones y todavia no se vislumbra financiamiento multillateral. Pendiente Las reformas del presidente Gutierrez al sector petrolero se mueren en el Congreso, pero nuevas leyes podrian surgir en 2005. Petroecuador necesita el dinero: la produccion esta disminuyendo. Brasil Crecimiento La impresionante produccion industrial impulsa la expansion economica de 2005 estimada en un 3.5%. La inflacion es un riesgo. El presidente Lula debe ser austero en el gasto. Sube y baja las exportaciones brasilenas--lideradas por la soya y el hierro “Hierro” redirects here. For the former Spanish footballer, see Fernando Hierro. “Ferro” redirects here. For the Argentine football club, see Ferro Carril Oeste. vendidos a China--creceran en un 50% at ano. El gobierno estima que en 2006 las exportaciones alcanzaran los US$100,000 millones. Peru Optimismo cauteloso La economia esta creciendo; las finanzas estan bajo control. La inflacion podria aumentar las tasas de interes. Las negociaciones del tratado de libre comercio con EE.UU. no conduiran durante el gobierno actual. Auditoria El presidente Toledo se somete a una auditoria para callar a quienes lo acusan de corrupcion. Inauguracion El gasoducto Camisea--que costo US$1,600 millones--empieza a operar. Argentina Deuda El ministro de finanzas debera reestructurar la deuda externa de US$100,000 miliones sin el consentimiento del Fondo Monetario Internacional. Distribucion de riqueza El gobierno aumenta el salario minimo Minimo (from "Mini Mozilla") is a project to create a version of the Mozilla web browser for small devices like PDAs and mobile phones. The project also aims to make it easier for developers to embed parts of Mozilla into systems with limited system resources (for example, y las pensiones publicas y mejora la seguridad social para combatir la pobreza que afecta at 40% de la poblacion. Hay que estar pendientes de la inflacion y de un menor crecimiento economico en el largo Largo, town (1990 pop. 65,674), Pinellas co., W Fla., on the Pinellas peninsula and the Gulf Coast, across the bay from Tampa; settled 1853, inc. 1905. It is a packing, canning, and shipping center in a citrus fruit and fishing area. plazo. Descontento Los niveles de satisfaccion con la labor La Labor is a municipality in the Honduran department of Ocotepeque. del presidente Kirchner estan disminuyendo. El crimen, los racionamientos de energia y el desempleo amenazan eL crecimiento del pais. Chile Auge comercial Las exportaciones e importaciones crecen rapidamente. En 2005, la economia deberia crecer en un 5%. El desempleo se ubica en un 9.6%--el mas alto desde 2001. Gracias a la demanda china, el cobre es el rey El Rey, which means "The King" in the Spanish language, may refer to:
Retiro El ex dictador Pinochet esta siendo investigado por millones de dolares que se le descubrieron en cuentas secretas. Su herencia neoliberal, esta manchada. Mujeres lideres El proximo prox·i·mo adv. Archaic Of or in the following month. [Latin proxim  (m ano Chile podria elegir a la primer prim·ern. A segment of DNA or RNA that is complementary to a given DNA sequence and that is needed to initiate replication by DNA polymerase. presidenta del pais. Centroamerica y el Caribe Deja vu dominicano Despues de cuatro cuat·ro n. pl. cuat·ros A small guitarlike instrument of Latin America, usually having four or five pairs of strings. [Spanish, from Latin quattuor, four; see quatrain.] anos, Leonel Fernandez es presidente una vez mas. Fernandez promete aliviar la crisis reduciendo el gasto del gobierno. Cuesta cuesta (kwĕs`tə), asymmetric ridge characterized by a short, steep escarpment on one side, and a long, gentle slope on the other. The steep side exposes the edge of erosion-resistant rock layers that form the cuestas. arriba El presidente satvadoreno Saca tiene un gobierno que favorece at sector privado, pero los anos de guerra civil, los huracanes y terremotos son un problema real. El libre comercio ayuda y perjudica a la vez debido a que las maquiladoras maquiladoras (mäkē'lädō`räs), Mexican assembly plants that manufacture finished goods for export to the United States. The maquiladoras are generally owned by non-Mexican corporations. deberan competir con empresas asiaticas. Salsa panamena El presidente Torrijos nombra al salsero Ruben Blades como ministro de Turismo. Moneda hondurena La dolarizacion no es muy viable; el gobierno espera que su politica monetaria acelere la economia. Cafe de Costa Rica Costa Rica (kŏs`tə rē`kə), officially Republic of Costa Rica, republic (2005 est. pop. 4,016,000), 19,575 sq mi (50,700 sq km), Central America. El presidente Pacheco espera llegar a un acuerdo para utilizar a Taiwan para exportar cafe a China. Nicaragua en problemas El gobierno le apunta a un crecimiento economico del 5%. Sin embargo embargo (ĕmbär`gō), prohibition by a country of the departure of ships or certain types of goods from its ports. Instances of confining all domestic ships to port are rare, and the Embargo Act of 1807 is the sole example of this in , el pais se disputa la posicion del pals mas pobre del hemisferio con Haiti. Resto de Sudamerica Bolivia recursos Un nuevo impuesto a las empresas de gas extranjeras genera decenas de millones de dolares. El gas pronto pron·to adv. Informal Without delay; quickly. [Spanish, from Latin pr mptus; see prompt. saldra
por Peru, pero la deuda del gobierno llega at 6.5% del PIB See NIST binary. . La mitad de
los bolivianos son pobres.Progreso paraguayo El plan der gobierno de privatizar las industrias estatales genera protestas. Los prestamistas multilaterales recomiendan reformas estructurales en el gobierno y en el sector de la educacion. Recuperacion uruguaya En marzo de 2005 hay cambio de gobierno. La recuperacion deberia continuar. Algunos estiman que en 2004 el crecimiento sera del 10%. En 2005 sera del 3%. El pais tiene una deuda de US$15,000 millones.
PRONOSTICO DE CONSENSO
PIB REAL
cambio %
PIB 2003
US$ miles PIB 2003 2003
de per capita POBLACION
millones US$ millones 2003 2004E 2005P
ARGENTINA 129.7 3,339 38.9 8.7 7.4 3.8
BRASIL 497.9 2,690 185.0 -0.2 3.8 3.5
CHILE 72.1 4,476 16.1 3.3 5.0 4.8
COLOMBIA 77.8 1,718 45.3 3.9 3.9 3.7
ECUADOR 27.1 2,082 13.0 2.7 4.8 4.0
MEXICO 626.1 5,978 104.7 1.3 4.1 3.6
PERU 60.6 2,201 27.5 4.1 4.2 3.8
VENEZUELA 84.9 3,250 26.1 -9.2 10.5 3.3
INFLACION TASA CAMBIARIA
cambio % final del periodo
2003 2004E 2005P 2003 2004E 2005P
ARGENTINA 3.7 7.5 8.4 2.91 2.95 3.04
BRASIL 9.3 7.1 5.6 2.89 3.13 3.29
CHILE 1.1 2.4 3.0 599 621 630
COLOMBIA 6.5 6.1 5.4 2,778 2,781 2,949
ECUADOR 6.1 3.7 3.3 1.00 1.00 1.00
MEXICO 4.0 4.1 3.8 11.24 11.48 11.80
PERU 2.5 3.0 2.6 3.46 3.50 3.56
VENEZUELA 27.1 27.0 24.3 1,598 2,096 2,657
RESERVAS
CUENTA CORRIENTE US$ miles de
% del PIB millones
2003 2004E 2005P 2003 2004E 2005P
ARGENTINA 6.3 4.0 1.6 14.2 17.6 17.9
BRASIL 0.8 0.7 -0.1 49.1 50.6 49.9
CHILE -0.8 1.3 0.5 15.8 16.6 17.1
COLOMBIA -1.9 -1.9 -2.0 10.8 11.5 11.7
ECUADOR -1.6 0.5 0.0 1.2 1.4 1.7
MEXICO -1.5 -1.7 -2.2 57.4 60.3 60.6
PERU -1.7 -1.2 -1.2 10.2 10.7 10.9
VENEZUELA 11.2 10.4 8.6 21.0 23.6 26.3
EXPORTACIONES IMPORTACIONES
US$ miles de millones US$ miles de millones
2003 2004E 2005P 2003 2004E 2005P
ARGENTINA 29.4 32.9 34.6 13.8 20.7 25.0
BRASIL 73.1 90.6 96.5 50.7 60.5 67.7
CHILE 21.0 26.7 28.6 19.4 21.3 23.0
COLOMBIA 12.7 14.1 14.6 13.9 14.3 15.2
ECUADOR 6.0 6.4 6.9 6.5 6.2 6.9
MEXICO 165.4 180.9 191.3 178.5 190.1 203.7
PERU 9.0 10.5 11.0 8.3 9.0 9.3
VENEZUELA 25.8 31.1 28.2 10.7 16.5 14.8
FUENTE: Banamex, BBVA, Bear Stearns, CS First Boston, Goldman Sachs,
J.P. Morgan Chase, Merrill Lynch, Morgan Stanley, Santander Central
Hispano Investment, Salomon Smith Barney, UBS Warburg, LATIN TRADE
E= ESTIMADO P= PRONOSTICO
VENTANA AL MUNDO
PIB REAL cambio %
2003
2003 PIB PIB
US$ per 2003
miles de capita POBLACION
millones US$ millones 2003 2004E 2005P
EE.UU. 10,985 37,360 294.0 3.1 4.5 3.8
JAPON 4,302 33,699 127.7 2.5 4.2 1.8
ALEMANIA 2,409 29,204 82.5 -0.1 1.7 1.7
GRAN BRETANA 1,799 30,356 59.3 2.2 3.2 2.7
CHINA 1,410 1,081 1,304.2 9.1 8.7 7.7
AMERICA LATINA 1,694 3,182 532.5 1.6 4.6 3.7
UNION EUROPEA 11,004 24,227 454.2 1.0 2.2 2.3
ASIA PACIFICO 3.7 5.1 3.3
EUROPA ORIENTAL 5.6 5.5 5.1
CUENTA CORRIENTE
INFLACION cambio % US$ miles de millones
2003 2004E 2005P 2003 2004E 2005P
EE.UU. 2.3 2.6 2.3 -531.0 -595.0 -598.0
JAPON -0.3 -0.1 0.0 136.0 171.0 178.0
ALEMANIA 1.1 1.6 1.3 52.9 80.7 81.1
GRAN BRETANA 2.8 2.4 2.4 -33.3 -48.6 -50.6
CHINA 1.2 3.6 3.5 45.9 18.8 16.9
AMERICA LATINA 7.6 7.4 6.7 8.2 5.3 -8.5
UNION EUROPEA 2.1 2.0 1.9 -4.8 13.6 14.6
ASIA PACIFICO 0.5 1.1 1.2 261.0 262.0 260.0
EUROPA ORIENTAL 11.1 8.3 7.4 2.4 -3.7 -18.5
E= ESTIMADO P= PRONOSTICO
FUENTE: Consensus Economics; www.consensuseconomics.com
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