Confidence In Economy Grinds To A Halt, Decision Analyst's Economic Index Reports.

Business Editors

ARLINGTON, Texas--(BUSINESS WIRE)--May 3, 2004

Confidence in the economy's current performance has taken a serious hit in the last month; that's according to new data from Decision Analyst, Inc.'s U.S. Economic Index. The overall Index fell back two points to 111 in April. A moderate increase in consumer confidence could not offset falling business optimism.

Decision Analyst U.S. Economic Index for the Past 13 Months

2003          April                  109
              May                    108
              June                   109
              July                   108
              August                 108
              September              110
              October                110
              November               111
              December               114
2004          January                111
              February               112
              March                  113
              April                  111

"The downturn in economic confidence is troubling, but not entirely unexpected," said Jerry W. Thomas, President and CEO of Decision Analyst, a marketing research and marketing consulting firm. "The international outlook is increasingly uncertain wherever you look - Iraq, Israel, even Europe with the terrorist attacks in Madrid and the economic woes of the Eurozone. If you add to that the uncertainties of an election year here in the U.S., the lack of corporate confidence is not that surprising."

The April Economic Index saw falls in reported business activity, job security and corporate hiring. Stock market confidence was unchanged from March, remaining well down from previous months. Only consumer confidence bucked the trend, rising four percent.

"The optimism of consumers is an interesting development," Thomas says. "A lack of business confidence, especially regarding employment, might be expected to hit consumer confidence likewise. The pace of economic growth may well depend on consumers maintaining their positive outlook, especially if corporate America continues to suffer in the months to come."

Methodology: The Decision Analyst Economic Index is based on a monthly Internet survey of several thousand households balanced by gender, age, and geography. The survey is conducted during the last 10 days of each month, and the Index is immediately calculated from nine different economic measurements, using a sophisticated econometric model. The result is a snapshot of current U.S. economic activity, as seen through the eyes of representative consumers. Decision Analyst also conducts concurrent economic surveys in Canada, the U.K., Germany, France, Italy, Netherlands, Mexico and Australia. Whenever the Decision Analyst Economic Index is greater than 110, it tends to signal an expanding economy. An Index value of 100 to 110 suggests a stagnant economy, and below 100 generally indicates economic contraction. These guidelines vary by country, however.

About Decision Analyst

Decision Analyst, Inc. (www.decisionanalyst.com) is a leading marketing research and marketing consulting firm specializing in advertising testing, strategy research, new product development, and advanced modeling for marketing decision optimization. The firm delivers competitive advantage to clients throughout the world in the consumer packaged goods, telecommunications, retail, high technology, medical and pharmaceutical, utilities, and e-commerce industries. Decision Analyst operates American Consumer Opinion(R) Online, one of the world's largest Internet consumer opinion panels, with more than 3.5 million participants.