Confidence Dips: First Time in 1999.July Results After eight months of consecutive gains the Consumer Confidence Index fell nearly three-and-a-half points in July. The Index now stands at 135.6 (1985=100), down from 139.0 in June. Only one component of the Index, however, recorded a loss. The Expectations Index dropped to a current reading of 107.0 from a June reading of 114.9. Conversely, the Present Situation Index improved, rising to 178.7 in July from 175.0 in June. The Consumer Confidence Survey is based on a representative sample of 5,000 U.S. households. The monthly survey is conducted for The Conference Board by NFO Research, Inc. of Greenwich, Connecticut. In July, consumers' assessment of current conditions improved. The proportion of respondents rating business conditions as "good" jumped to 44.9 percent from 40.7 percent last month. The percentage reporting a decline in favorable business conditions fell to 9.0 percent from 9.3 percent in June. Consumers' appraisal of the job market was also more favorable than in the prior survey: A smaller percentage says jobs are "hard to get", 11.6 percent versus 12.3 percent last month. Respondents claiming jobs are abundant rose to 49.8 percent from 47.3 percent. In the July survey, consumers' outlook six months hence was much less optimistic than in the previous survey. The percentage of respondents that anticipates a pickup in business conditions dropped to 16.4 percent from 18.1 percent in June. Those expecting conditions to worsen, however, only increased moderately - to 6.5 percent from 5.6 percent in June. The labor market outlook is also less favorable, only 16.3 percent of consumers expect more jobs to be available in the coming months, down from 18.4 percent in the prior survey. The proportion anticipating income gains over the next six months declined to 22.5 percent from 26.3 percent in June. While this downshift marks the first time this year the Consumer Confidence Index has posted a decline, a severe erosion in consumer optimism is unlikely. In fact, while consumer are somewhat less upbeat about the near-term than they have been in several months they nevertheless feel current economic conditions have improved over the past month.
Confidence and Buying Plans
Based on surveys conducted by NFO Research, Inc.
Percentage of households = 100%
1998
All series seasonally adjusted July Aug. Sept. Oct. Nov.
Composite Series: Index Numbers, 1985=100
Consumer Confidence Index 137.2 133.1 126.4 119.3 126.4
Present Situation 172.9 172.6 170.7 165.2 166.7
Expectations 113.4 106.8 96.8 88.7 99.5
Appraisal of Present Situation: Percent
Business Conditions
Good 44.5 41.7 41.0 38.9 38.7
Bad 9.2 8.5 9.3 10.0 9.5
Normal 46.3 49.8 49.7 51.1 51.8
Employment
Jobs plentiful 46.1 44.8 45.2 41.9 40.7
Jobs not so plentiful 39.9 41.4 40.5 42.8 44.9
jobs hard to get 14.0 13.8 14.3 15.3 14.4
Expectations for Six Months Hence: Percent
Business Conditions
Better 19.7 16.8 15.0 14.7 16.2
Worse 5.4 6.5 9.6 11.8 8.0
Same 74.9 76.7 75.4 73.5 75.8
Employment
More jobs 17.1 16.1 15.2 13.4 13.9
Fewer jobs 11.8 13.5 15.9 18.1 15.0
Same 71.1 70.4 68.9 68.5 71.1
Income
Increase 29.0 28.2 27.8 23.8 27.7
Decrease 5.2 5.6 6.3 6.6 6.0
Same 65.8 66.2 65.9 69.6 66.3
Plans to Buy Within Six Months: Percent
Automobile
Yes 11.0 8.7 8.7 9.6 9.6
New 4.1 4.1 3.3 3.9 3.9
Used 5.3 3.6 3.7 4.3 4.3
Uncertain 1.6 1.0 1.7 1.4 1.4
Home
Yes 4.3 3.8 4.3 4.3 4.7
New 1.1 1.4 0.8 1.3 1.4
Lived in 2.2 1.6 2.1 1.8 2.2
Uncertain 1.0 0.8 1.4 1.2 1.1
Major appliances
Total plans 33.3 30.2 30.4 28.3 33.2
Refrigerator 4.4 4.2 4.6 4.0 4.6
Washing machine 4.6 3.6 3.7 3.8 3.7
TV Set 7.9 6.8 7.3 6.9 7.8
Vacuum Cleaner 6.2 6.6 6.1 5.0 6.5
Range 3.1 3.0 2.8 3.1 3.7
Clothes dryer 4.0 4.0 3.1 3.2 3.4
Air conditioner 3.1 2.0 2.8 2.3 3.5
Carpet 7.8 6.7 5.8 6.4 6.9
Vacation Intended Within Six Months: Percent
Vacation Intended 47.7 47.6
Destination
U.S. 40.7 40.1
Foreign country 8.9 8.3
Means of Travel
Automobile 25.7 26.0
Airplane 21.2 17.9
Other 4.0 4.2
1999
All series seasonally adjusted Dec. Jan. Feb. Mar. Apr.
Composite Series: Index Numbers, 1985=100
Consumer Confidence Index 126.7 128.9 133.1 134.0 135.5
Present Situation 168.6 172.9 177.7 176.6 175.5
Expectations 98.7 99.6 103.4 105.5 108.8
Appraisal of Present Situation: Percent
Business Conditions
Good 38.1 39.8 42.7 42.3 43.3
Bad 8.7 9.4 8.4 8.6 9.1
Normal 53.2 50.8 48.9 49.1 47.6
Employment
Jobs plentiful 42.5 46.6 47.8 47.3 47.8
Jobs not so plentiful 42.9 40.4 40.3 40.5 39.5
jobs hard to get 14.6 13.0 11.9 12.2 12.7
Expectations for Six Months Hence: Percent
Business Conditions
Better 16.5 15.3 16.0 15.9 16.6
Worse 8.0 7.0 6.8 6.5 6.2
Same 75.5 77.7 77.2 77.6 77.2
Employment
More jobs 14.1 13.6 14.0 15.2 15.7
Fewer jobs 15.7 14.5 13.5 13.1 11.3
Same 70.2 71.9 72.5 71.7 73.0
Income
Increase 28.7 23.9 26.7 25.8 23.5
Decrease 6.7 5.9 5.3 5.3 5.3
Same 64.6 70.2 68.0 68.9 71.2
Plans to Buy Within Six Months: Percent
Automobile
Yes 8.3 8.5 10.3 8.7 9.0
New 3.8 3.4 3.7 3.9 5.1
Used 3.3 3.9 4.9 3.7 3.1
Uncertain 1.2 1.2 1.7 1.1 0.8
Home
Yes 3.9 3.9 4.6 5.2 4.2
New 1.3 1.0 1.1 1.5 1.4
Lived in 1.7 1.8 2.0 2.4 1.7
Uncertain 0.9 1.1 1.5 1.3 1.1
Major appliances
Total plans 31.6 29.6 3.12 32.8 32.4
Refrigerator 5.0 4.9 4.4 5.0 4.5
Washing machine 3.8 3.6 4.1 4.4 3.9
TV Set 7.5 6.7 7.7 8.1 7.1
Vacuum Cleaner 5.6 5.8 6.1 5.8 6.4
Range 3.9 3.2 2.9 3.1 4.3
Clothes dryer 3.5 3.2 3.6 4.3 4.2
Air conditioner 2.3 2.2 2.4 2.1 2.0
Carpet 6.9 7.6 6.5 5.7 6.2
Vacation Intended Within Six Months: Percent
Vacation Intended 50.3 45.2 44.5
Destination
U.S. 43.3 38.6 37.8
Foreign country 8.3 8.7 8.3
Means of Travel
Automobile 27.5 23.8 24.4
Airplane 19.6 19.3 20.2
Other 4.4 4.8 3.2
All series seasonally adjusted May June(r) July(p)
Composite Series: Index Numbers, 1985=100
Consumer Confidence Index 137.7 139.0 135.6
Present Situation 177.2 175.0 178.7
Expectations 111.3 114.0 107.0
Appraisal of Present Situation: Percent
Business Conditions
Good 44.3 40.7 44.9
Bad 8.3 9.3 9.0
Normal 47.4 50.0 46.1
Employment
Jobs plentiful 47.6 47.3 49.8
Jobs not so plentiful 39.9 40.4 38.6
jobs hard to get 12.5 12.3 11.6
Expectations for Six Months Hence: Percent
Business Conditions
Better 17.1 18.1 16.4
Worse 5.4 5.6 6.5
Same 77.5 76.3 77.1
Employment
More jobs 16.3 18.4 16.3
Fewer jobs 11.6 10.3 11.7
Same 72.1 71.3 72.0
Income
Increase 26.2 26.3 22.5
Decrease 5.2 5.5 6.2
Same 68.6 68.2 71.3
Plans to Buy Within Six Months: Percent
Automobile
Yes 10.1 8.3 10.0
New 4.8 4.5 4.2
Used 3.9 3.3 4.6
Uncertain 1.4 0.5 1.2
Home
Yes 4.0 3.9 4.0
New 1.2 1.0 0.9
Lived in 1.6 1.9 2.0
Uncertain 1.2 1.0 1.1
Major appliances
Total plans 32.1 28.4 30.7
Refrigerator 4.4 4.1 4.4
Washing machine 4.1 3.6 4.2
TV Set 8.4 6.8 7.4
Vacuum Cleaner 5.8 5.4 5.0
Range 3.4 2.7 4.0
Clothes dryer 3.9 3.8 2.7
Air conditioner 2.1 2.0 3.0
Carpet 6.8 5.5 7.0
Vacation Intended Within Six Months: Percent
Vacation Intended 44.4
Destination
U.S. 37.7
Foreign country 8.4
Means of Travel
Automobile 24.7
Airplane 20.0
Other 3.8
Not Seasonally Adjusted
Expectations for Twelve Months Hence: Percent
Inflation Rate
Average 4.0 3.8 3.9 3.7 3.9 4.1
Interest Rates
Higher 48.8 50.7 43.9 29.6 36.4 38.0
Same 40.7 37.5 36.6 32.8 41.5 39.9
Lower 10.5 11.8 19.5 37.6 22.1 22.1
Stock Prices
Increase 43.1 33.3 31.4 28.5 42.5 41.2
Same 36.4 34.5 33.2 35.6 37.4 36.6
Decrease 20.5 32.2 35.4 35.9 20.1 22.2
Not Seasonally Adjusted
Expectations for Twelve Months Hence: Percent
Inflation Rate
Average 3.9 3.8 3.8 4.0 4.0 4.0
Interest Rates
Higher 39.6 45.0 51.3 49.3 49.8 58.6
Same 43.4 42.9 37.9 41.1 40.0 33.6
Lower 17.0 12.1 10.8 9.6 10.2 7.8
Stock Prices
Increase 43.9 42.5 42.4 44.8 46.7 41.0
Same 36.3 37.2 37.9 36.2 34.1 37.4
Decrease 19.8 20.3 19.7 19.0 19.2 21.6
Not Seasonally Adjusted
Expectations for Twelve Months Hence: Percent
Inflation Rate
Average 3.8
Interest Rates
Higher 67.3
Same 26.4
Lower 6.3
Stock Prices
Increase 44.5
Same 36.1
Decrease 19.4
1998
All series seasonally adjusted July Aug. Sept. Oct. Nov. Dec.
Consumer Confidence Index, 1985 = 100
AGE OF HOUSEHOLD HEAD
Under 35 141.4 139.8 132.4 133.6 136.3 133.1
35-54 135.9 135.0 125.2 118.3 127.1 127.0
55 and over 133.6 124.8 121.8 111.1 117.6 120.4
HOUSEHOLD INCOME
Under $15,000 100.6 105.6 103.2 99.7 98.0 99.3
$15,000-24,999 130.8 120.1 112.5 112.8 117.9 113.2
$25,000-34,999 138.8 127.1 127.1 114.5 127.6 132.6
$35,000-49,999 142.3 143.0 129.7 124.9 128.1 129.8
$50,000 and over 153.4 148.1 140.0 128.7 139.7 139.7
1999
All series seasonally adjusted Jan. Feb. Mar. Apr. May June(r)
Consumer Confidence Index, 1985 = 100
AGE OF HOUSEHOLD HEAD
Under 35 131.1 141.8 135.8 134.5 136.7 142.7
35-54 130.7 131.5 137.1 133.3 139.7 136.0
55 and over 123.3 126.9 125.2 136.4 132.8 138.4
HOUSEHOLD INCOME
Under $15,000 98.2 105.4 104.0 112.6 108.1 108.0
$15,000-24,999 118.0 124.1 123.2 126.2 124.5 129.6
$25,000-34,999 129.7 129.8 138.3 131.6 136.0 143.4
$35,000-49,999 134.2 139.0 136.1 136.8 140.4 143.0
$50,000 and over 143.4 146.4 147.2 148.9 154.5 150.2
3 mos.
Percent
All series seasonally adjusted July(p) Change [*]
Consumer Confidence Index, 1985 = 100
AGE OF HOUSEHOLD HEAD
Under 35 141.6 2.2
35-54 135.3 2.3
55 and over 129.9 3.2
HOUSEHOLD INCOME
Under $15,000 106.1 0.1
$15,000-24,999 124.1 1.3
$25,000-34,999 138.3 4.5
$35,000-49,999 142.8 3.5
$50,000 and over 148.6 2.5
(p) - preliminary (r) - revised (*.)Percent Change: Average of last three months shown as compared with preceding three months. Age and incomes data have been adjusted for season variation. |
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