Conditions just right for 9-1 Bogside Theatre; PRICEWISE.

Byline: Tom Segal says a drop in trip will suit George Moore's filly

HAVING written 700 words of sparkling prose suggesting that Minkowski was the bet of the day, it was galling to say the least when he was declared a non-runner in today's Mallard Handicap late last night and Jeremy Noseda was firmly crossed off the Christmas card list.

You wouldn't believe the trouble a late non-runner causes bookmakers, and dare I say it, priceorientated tipsters, because the original prices are redundant.

Nonetheless, I still think there is a nice bet to be had in the Mallard and that comes in the shape of improving filly Bogside Theatre, who has gone up the handicap for not winning but could have her ideal conditions today, as she hasn't quite been seeing out 2m on her last few starts.

In the Northumberland Plate she chased a really strong pace and was the only one of the frontrunners to be involved in the finish, while at Ascot the last twice I'm far from convinced the track over the 2m trip suited her style. Having said that, over today's distance she would have hacked up in the Shergar Cup last time, and the 2lb rise might not stop her with everything in her favour today.

George Moore reports her in as good a form now as she was at the start of her excellent run, and this really isn't the strongest renewal of the race, with no unexposed three-year-old likely to make a mockery of the handicap.

Laterly may be the best of the younger generation as he's a tough, resolute galloper, but on many occasions the final furlong of his races have been his weakest and, upped in trip from 1m4f, there is a chance he may get swamped close home.

Clearly it wouldn't serve either Bogside Theatre or Laterly well if they were to get into a battle for the lead in the conditions, so hopefully Daniel Tudhope will have the sense to sit off Micky Fenton if he lets Laterly off the leash from the start.

Bollin Felix has a big chance if there is a lot of rain and the ground becomes heavy because he loves it like that, but conditions this week haven't been that bad and he does have a 6lb penalty for winning a race he could hardly lose last time.

The Doncaster Cup is tricky because the two who head the market ran unaccountably badly last time, while the third favourite, Sagara, is a total law unto himself and is just as likely to pull himself up as win. The Godolphin horse was third in the Arc last year and has the ability to win this doing handsprings, but I made the mistake of backing him earlier in the season only for him to down tools and I won't be making the same mistake again.

Honolulu is clearly a class horse as well and he ran well here in the Leger a year ago, but he had a hard race in the Queen Alexandra at Royal Ascot, and it looked like he was seriously feeling the effects when well behind some of these in the Goodwood Cup last time. His backers will be hoping it was the switchback track that caused his downfall, but I'm not so sure.

On his early season form, Royal And Regal is the most solid option, and he gives the impression that this trip on soft ground will be right up his street. His second in the Yorkshire Cup was a real good effort, but backing him does involve the risk of forgetting what happened in France last time. Michael Jarvis wouldn't have sent him out there half-fit, and he capitulated too quickly for my liking. He might win, but I prefer backing 3-1 shots who have rocksolid credentials.

Today's advice

Bogside Theatre

2.05 Doncaster

1pt win at 9-1 with Skybet