Communication: an evolution not a revolution.

Who can predict the extent of changes to the working environment by 2010?

My feeling is that we will see continued evolution rather than revolution in the next 16 years; the changes will be dramatic but will vary from place to place. When I started my first business 16 years ago we had one manual typewriter. I thought we were really going places when we eventually bought our first electric golf ball typewriter!

Sure, there were computers available, but only for large companies with space and money. Word processing was just starting, and fax machines were rarely seen and only in the largest international organisations. They were very expensive and not very reliable. Not many people had heard of modems.

Today I have all this available in my home. Yet we are not really using the available technology to the fullest. Its potential is not so much constrained by cost, but by our ability to harness it effectively. Moreover, developments and breakthroughs happen at a confusing speed. How many of us have installed packages that we then find are under utilised, or not as useful as we had expected?

Hands up all those people who have software on their system that they haven't used in the last three months or more.

Generally speaking, organisations tend to build on what they already have rather than tearing out the old and starting again. This is why I feel we will see evolution -- organisations simply can't afford to discard existing investments unless there are real commercial reasons why they must. It will be the new, and therefore smaller, organisations in our industry that will be at the forefront of change, because they will not have a structure already in place that will inhibit them. But will we see the development of further international public relations firms?

Many think that it will be too difficult and expensive and that those already existing will continue to dominate. Perhaps so.

Yet international public relations consultancies' use of technology does not compare well with media groups'. Most media groups are at the forefront in use of technology for information distribution. We see this with CNN News (where was CNN 16 years ago?) and in the news gathering and distribution abilities of theprint media. It is their business to distribute information quickly so they tend to be at the cutting edge of technology.

Arguably the same should be said of international public relations consultancies, yet they do not seem to have made the same breakthroughs or commitment to automatic international linkages, access and database development. The first that do so will be able to give themselves a real marketing advantage. Databases and communication technologies are useful tools. They allow us to do things we couldn't before, and save "doing" time spent on routine. This means we will have more creative "thinking" time.

Instant reaction and delivery is a growing trend. So, making information more quickly available and accessible will increase. This concept has been around for a while, but is only just starting to spread internationally. Greater use of commercial databases and development of private databases which are accessible throughout an organisation across all borders, will become routine. It is to some now, but relatively few worldwide. It will become easier and easier.

Among the many other developments in telecommunications in the next 16 years, could I put in a plea for long-life batteries, or alternative power for equipment?

One trend that will certainly increase is "where a person is, their office is." Increasingly we will have all the equipment and power at our fingertips to allow us to work wherever we are. We have already seen acceptance of the "electronic cottage" and "telecommuting" and this will rapidly increase.

We have mobile phones, mobile faxes, portable computers, but as the cost of these comes down, their power increases, and satellite communication becomes more accessible, people will feel it is less necessary to go to a central place of work. Work will be where the mind is -- not where the equipment is.

Organisations are becoming sympathetic to key workers' requests for flexible working conditions. So much so that the concept of a central business district as a place of work could well disappear.

Such developments will have impact on communication needs. Social issues will become more important. Lifestyle changes will alter attitudes and aspirations. What is expected from us will be affected. Recognising, and helping with, social issues such as the haves and have nots, entrenched unemployment, redistribution of wealth, right to know, privacy, human rights, multiculturism, will become even more important to communicators.

Travel and tourism will increase. International borders will become less distinct, but regional and cultural issues more important. Witness the footprints of satellite broadcasters that do not recognise boundaries marked on a map.

How we deliver messages will change with a greater variety of broadcast media and the development of armchair everything -- banking, entertainment, working, shopping and living. More decisions will be made at home and more done at home. Communicating with this type of society will need changed skills.

As it is now, I work from home with more power and flexibility than most of the companies I worked for 16 years ago. I can work from my home or boat, or while I'm on holidays, at any time of the day I wish. In the future it won't even be necessary to take equipment with me. I will simply hire or buy disposable equipment.

Nevertheless, Rupert Murdoch, who perhaps has made a larger investment in the future of media than anyone, said recently, "I think the printed word will remain supreme, especially in the transmission of ideas and intellectual debate, whether by newspapers or books." I find this comforting and hope he's right -- at least for the next 16 years, which will see me through my working life anyway.

Jim Pritchitt is principal, Public Relations Counsel, Northbridge, Australia.