Comeback from comedown: former ruling party repositions itself for success in 2006.

Nothing lasts forever and complacency can prove extremely dangerous. Even if you've been at the top of the political ladder for 71 years.

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That's what the Institutional Revolutionary Party, or PRI, discovered to its dismay in Mexico in 2000.

To the surprise of many, Vicente Fox of the National Action Party (PAN) and the Alliance for Change toppled the PRI and its candidate, Francisco Labastida, from a hitherto unassailable perch.

Cast out of the presidential residence Los Pinos for at least six years, the PRI has had time to reflect, recover and revive. Crucially, it has retained a firm grip on the reins of Congress and almost none of President Fox's thirst for an ambitious program of reforms has been slaked. So little of his radical promised whirlwind of changes has been delivered and many Mexicans have become bitterly disillusioned with the palpable gap between words and actions.

So how has the PRI fought back to win a sizeable majority of gubernatorial and state elections since its shocking loss in 2000? And this despite facing a massive fine from the Federal Electoral Institute (IFE) for presidential campaign violations that has reduced its formerly bustling party headquarters to a shoestring operation with a skeleton staff.

Three prominent political figures--Jose Angel Gurria, Lorenzo Meyer and Sergio Sarmiento--weigh in on the transformation of the political landscape over the past four years.

Therapeutic Loss

Long-time PRI stalwart Jose Angel Gurria--foreign relations secretary and then finance secretary during the Zedillo administration (1994-2000)--ruefully acknowledges the party received one big wake-up call from the electorate.

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"I think all of us in the PRI would have preferred to improve our party structure through introspection and self-criticism, rather than by defeat," he said.

Gurria characterized the election outcome as "a very traumatic experience."

"But at the same time, it was therapeutic in the sense that you take a hard look at what you've been doing and how you do things.

"I sincerely think that people actually did vote with the idea of punishing us, as if to say: 'I'm going to send these guys a message.'"

Gurria believes the electorate has been disappointed by what it got in Fox, a pro-business conservative.

He also suggests the public is a little scared at what the left may do if it succeeds Fox in Los Pinos, pointing to the controversial administration in Mexico City where leftist icon Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador is mayor. Lopez Obrador--a member of the Party of the Democratic Revolution (PRD)--is a front-runner in opinion polls ahead of the 2006 presidential vote.

"As a result, I think they see the PRI as a very real and a very serious alternative (for the 2006 presidential election). But nothing is going to be the way it was."

Public Apathy

Lorenzo Meyer is a professor of political history at the College of Mexico's Center for International Studies and a respected political analyst. He says a sizeable percentage of Mexicans are declining to vote in elections, slumping into apathy mixed with a deep cynicism about political parties and their oft-broken election pledges. He put it this way:

"The victory of the PRI is the victory of a minority. It now has control of Congress, as well as the majority of state governorships and municipal governments. But it does not have the support of the majority of Mexicans."

Meyer insists this is due to a kind of retreat from the political front. The public has gone back to its own private business and now has a very low opinion of the country's political actors.

"I think we are also faced with a hard fact. The only political party with a machine that is present everywhere in Mexico--like the Catholic Church--is the PRI. It's everywhere ... and that's not the case with the PRD or the PAN. It's this voting and mobilization machine created during 71 years in office, and this is a tremendous advantage."

Meyer argues that the PRI is mobilizing a minority of Mexicans, but that minority is good enough for a victory in the current presidential system.

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The professor says this scenario has unfolded because of three key factors:

1. The failures of President Fox. "He promised everything, and he delivered very little."

2. The structure of the PRI.

3. The incapacity of the PAN and the PRD.

"They are the natural enemies of the PRI and yet they have been unable to create a machine and the enthusiasm necessary to convince the public that the future belongs to them and they can deliver."

Meyer thinks the PRD and the PAN have failed to introduce into the minds of Mexicans the idea that they are going to deliver something valuable.

"They must outline a project for the 21st century that is completely different from the past in order to convince the electorate of their relevance."

Electoral Inconsistency

Sergio Sarmiento is the editorial director of TV Azteca and a renowned political commentator.

He says there appears to be a conflict in the mind of Mexican voters which has yet to be resolved in the run-up to the crucial 2006 presidential election. He explained:

"I do believe the choice of candidates will be crucial in determining the possibilities of the PRI returning to power in 2006. I'm not sure the PRI can be termed the favorite right now."

When you ask people which party they would vote for in 2006, the PRI is slightly ahead, Sarmiento admits.

"But when you ask which candidate they would vote for, the front runner is Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador of the PRD. So we don't see much consistency in the expressed intentions of the voters."

Sarmiento believes the PRI's hard vote remains roughly the same as it was in 2000, but abstention has been a significant boon to the former ruling party."

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"That's why the PRI was able to win eight out of 11 state elections in 2004. The PRI's political machinery has maintained its ability to get out the vote, even when it lost in 2000."

The PRI garnered 36 percent of the vote and lost to the Alliance for Change by a small margin.

"The dinosaur never disappeared. It has managed electoral success because many are not voting. The people who voted for Vicente Fox wanted change and the resulting disappointment has produced rising abstention."

As such, the loyal PRI partisans have continued to vote and that has been enough for the party to achieve electoral victories, Sarmiento says.

The PRI is currently deciding how to choose its presidential candidate, with final rules expected by March. Gurria says a wealth of qualified candidates will eventually be whittled down to just one and the party's bedrock support points toward a PRI victory:

"The main reason the PRI can win is party unity."

He maintains this is true even if there is a primary, where all the candidates fight it out with national campaigns.

Sarmiento firmly believes nothing is yet set in stone and 2006 election is still very much "up for grabs." He predicts a very close election.

His forecast is that Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador will win the PRD candidacy, Roberto Madrazo (the national party president of the PRI) will earn the nomination for the former ruling party and Interior Secretary Santiago Creel will represent the PAN.

"Whoever wins the election will win with roughly 35 percent of the vote, in an election where there will probably be five or six parties or alliances in contention."

Gurria agrees. "Today you have a very large segment of the electorate that does not favor one party in particular. They will make up their minds depending on the quality of the candidates, their record and how good a campaign they run."

The parties will have to work for every vote, Gurria says.

"The public is very skeptical. They want to be convinced; they want to believe. But it won't be automatic. We cannot take anything for granted."

Meyer is one of those skeptics. He summed up his critique of the PRI thusly: "They are just pointing back to the past and saying, 'Well we produced modest economic growth, stability and ... OK, yes, some corruption. But in the end we gave you something. The new system is giving you nothing.'"

James Blears is a Mexico City-based freelance writer and a correspondent for Standard Radio News in Mexico.