Comeback awaited with mixture of anticipation and anxiety; James Willoughby looks at what the six-time champion brings to the sport and asks why his return will be accompanied by a degree of trepidation.

Byline: James Willoughby 

WHEN Kieren Fallon was a guest on Channel 4 racing during the Ebor meeting, he expressed surprise that a jockey riding the leader would head up the middle of the course at York.

His reasoning was that staying on the rail would lead to at least a couple of horses behind him being inconvenienced to some degree, increasing his own chance of winning by a small fraction.

What he didn't say was that over the course of a thousand rides, a top jockey with a strike-rate of 20 per cent, who could lower the odds of his mount winning by ten per cent in this way, would ride about an extra 20 winners. And those winners could include some important races which have a radical effect on his career.

It is the accumulation of small edges that help to make Fallon the jockey he is. Yes, he supposedly has tremendous determination and great strength in the saddle, but so do a lot of jockeys. All this is just loose inference.

What Fallon brings to the sport is far more concrete than that. His approach to riding racehorses is essentially strategic; he lives for competition and figuring out what it takes to win.

A large part of this is apparent to anyone who really thinks about the game. Concepts like pace, draws and tactics are all areas from where Fallon can derive this accumulation of small edges.

We first really noted Fallon because of his effectiveness at Pontefract. He would rack up winner after winner for the Ramsdens, sticking to the inside and swooping late.

In other words, he had figured Pontefract out. But the same principles that enabled him to get there applied equally to other tracks, other days and other scenarios.

Some courses, like Goodwood, he has never worked out, but the fact this is reasonably well known is evidence that we watch Fallon in a closer way to other jockeys.

Similarly, horses like Dylan Thomas, George Washington and, more obliquely, Canon Can and Lost Soldier Three are horses who stick in the memory as having showcased particular facets of his skillset.

But there is another area still that is way beyond those of us who have never ridden a winner. And that is figuring out what makes a horse not just run able to run hard but want to run hard.

If this is merely intuitive, watching Fallon ride racehorses is also instructive to logic. Okay, so most of us will never get the chance to put what we learn into practice, nor would we have the physical skills to do so in the first place.

But we can begin to see what actually wins races. And what it is that other jockeys do that loses them.

Now that is interesting, intriguing, even exciting. And we are just fans of the sport and not professionally involved. Imagine what it is like if you are a trainer or an owner with first-hand experience of what Fallon brings to the table.

For a trainer like Luca Cumani, for instance, strategy is a big thing. On the track, he wants his horses ridden intelligently. That is his approach to training them and to experience anything else must be so frustrating.

The appeal of Fallon is obvious. You know his understanding of strategy is superior to everyone else. So, he gives you a more effective ride and more intelligent feedback afterwards, because he knows better than other jockeys why horses win or lose.

Beyond Cumani, who else will Fallon ride for? The answer is uncertain because there will be some powerful connections inclined to stand pat and see how things work out.

But racing is a results business, not an audition for sanctity. And nobody else is so good for results.

Fallon has had his lesser moments with the media, but he is by far the most interesting jockey during an interview. Some of the time, there is a suspicion he is amusing himself with the odd line designed to provoke a certain reaction, but these occasions are very much in the minority.

As punters, we know that backing Fallon gives us an edge. Of course, we have to pay heavily for this advantage in terms of the odds, so following him blindly is no way to make a profit. But the experience is still usually more satisfying, for we are generally left with the impression that our fancy was ridden to best advantage.

But no appraisal is complete if blindly positive. At the moment, all this is a projection because we haven't seen Fallon ride for nearly two years. We know he is physically fit and he sounds mentally tuned for his return, but an ounce of realisation is worth a ton of promise.

MOREOVER, it is necessary to remind ourselves of what might happen should Fallon waste this opportunity to round out the rest of his career in a positive fashion. The elements referred to above will mean nothing then, and the fact we have allowed ourselves to be roused by his return will provoke a strong sense of disappointment.

So the stakes are very high. For many of us, Flat racing hasn't been missing its heart and soul without Fallon, but we haven't lost our minds at the same time.

What he has gone through is not a triviality. The thought of getting back into action must be tremendously uplifting for him.

But, like a tragic Dickensian hero, he may never escape his past. Deep down, he cannot really know how he will feel in a month or a year - none of us can. Is he motivated by more than merely wanting to prove himself again? Right now, fans of Fallon cannot wait to see him again. But in their quieter and more reflective moods, this superficial excitement begins to commute to anxiety.

And, sadly, the mind tends to linger in this mood. Can the joy of watching Fallon drive one home ever be unbridled? Inwardly, won't we feel like these emotions are risky, that we are being irresponsible with ourselves? Friday has been coming for a long time now. The upside seems so easy to comprehend, the excitement so palpable.

All before it actually happens. If only life was so uncomplicated. Tomorrow: Peter Thomas on the great Fallon rides - and the disastrous ones Read Fallon's exclusive column in the Racing Post Weekender - out every Wednesday

CAPTION(S):

Luca Cumani: like Fallon, he puts great emphasis on strategy