Cold reception for American troops. (Kenya).

When the US troops arrived in Kenya in early February - as part of their "war against terrorism", the official statement from the American embassy in Nairobi said the troops had come for "joint military exercise" with the Kenyan army.

But the "joint" exercise turned out to involve only a paltry 250 Kenyan troops compared with the 3,300 American marines who arrived on the Kenyan coast.

Although America had conducted previous exercises in Kenya (involving less than 1,000 US soldiers), this was the first time that a huge number of US troops had come to stage such an exercise in the country.

As a side-show, they drilled a bore-hole for the local Kongoni maternity hospital, renovated a school at Faza Island in Lamu and repaired a foot-bridge.

But for Kenyans, there was more than met the eye - and Somalia quickly appeared on the radar.

Although America has had a permanent presence on the Kenyan coast since 1980 when Nairobi and Washington signed a memorandum of understanding allowing the US military facilities in Kenya, analysts now suspect that the huge US presence has something to do with preparations towards an attack on Somalia (see NA, Jan 2002, p10).

Alarmed by the sheer number of soldiers, the Supreme Council of Kenya Muslims (SUPKEM) has criticised the government for not consulting the people before agreeing to their arrival.

"For such a larger military presence in our country, there was need for the government to consult widely and get to hear our views before giving the US the go ahead," said Sheikh Juma Ngao, the SUPKEM chairman. "The continued presence and use of Kenyan soil by US forces in the name of war against terrorism, does not augur well with us."

Germany too is planning to station spy planes in Mombasa to "check terrorism activities" along the Indian Ocean.

Power game

Meanwhile, as the days of President Moi's retirement edge closer, the power game in Kenya is intensifying. Moi's ruling Kanu party has agreed to merge with Raila Odinga's National Development Parry (NDP), but the strength and durability of the merger may only be tested in the coming months.

Many people do nor even believe it is a merger. I would call it an acquisition," says Mutahi Ngunyi, a leading Kenyan political scientist and consultant. "As things stand, Kanu has refused to change its traditional cockerel symbol and it is the NDP that has to change all its colours - so much for a merger."

But Raila Odinga begs to differ. "What is important here is that the parties have agreed to merge so that we can have a strong political movement based on a strong ideology," he insists.

Sensing the danger, the much-divided opposition is reported to be intensifying their search for a single presidential candidate to challenge the Kanu-NDP alliance. But Paul Muite of the Safina Parry, once led by the palaeontologist Dr Richard Leakey, remains sceptical: "There are so many selfish people, I don't think it will happen."

According to the merger document, Kanu is to abolish the position of vice chairman held by Professor George Saitoti, the vice-president, and replace it with four vice chairmen. That way, President Moi will remain the person calling the shots to the last minute.

Already two camps have emerged within Kanu. One is led by Vice President Saitoti and is viewed as representing the old guards, and the other representing "young Turks" with Moi as their godfather. It is led by Isaac Ruto (the youngest son of the first president, Jomo Kenyatta) and Julius ole Sunkuli, a minister in Moi's office.

According to David Makali, director of Kenya's Media Institute, "Moi is playing two cards - old versus young - testing camps and whichever works for him, he will go to the polls with it."

But Kamau Ngotho, a respected Kenyan investigative journalist, disagrees: "There is no game plan here. Moi's plan is no plan at all. To Kenyans, it is an all too familiar road."