Clinton country?

ARIZONA, land of Barry Goldwater and dogged loyalty to GOP presidential nominees (it's gone Republican every four years since 1948) could be Clinton country this year. A Behavior Research Center poll (pre-debates) showed Clinton with 36 per cent, Bush at 31 per cent, and Perot with 17 per cent. Amazingly, Bush was drawing only 55 per cent among Republicans.

But all is not discouraging news for the conservative cause. The two most popular proposals on the November ballot have plenty of backing among Republican activists: term limits (for state as well as federal offices) and a measure requiring a two-thirds vote of the legislature to raise taxes.

Meanwhile, Republican U.S. Senator John McCain faces the fight of his life against left-liberal Democrat Claire Sargent. Mrs. Sargent--she insists on Ms., never Mrs.--is waging a war on the abortion issue (McCain is strongly pro-life) and loves to sing the glories of Anita Hill. McCain's membership in the Keating Five is a handicap. A further complication is the independent candidacy of former governor Evan Mecham, who retains a core of true-believing backers in spite of-- or perhaps because of--his impeachment and his verbal gaffes (it was Mecham who said, "Blacks like to be called pickaninnies, at least they did when I was a kid").

McCain's $1.7 million war chest has allowed him to launch a full-scale media blitz, and polls have him leading Sargent by some ten points, with Mecham a distant third. But Mecham as a straggler can wail away at McCain --whom he loathes--with little concern over the effect on his own chances. So far, Mecham has accused McCain of "participating in the cover-up" of missing POWs in Vietnam, despite the fact McCain himself was in the Hanoi Hilton for years.

For the House, there are two hardfought races. Doug Wead, GOP nominee in the new 6th District, faces Democrat State Representative Karan English. Wead, who was once the Bush's liaison to evangelicals, led the drive to qualify the initiative to require super-majorities in the legislature for new taxes. But he is taking flak for Amway connections and having once befriended PTL leader Jim Bakker. English, who hails from the Flagstaff area, is an enviro-activist who speaks for the Birkenstock and Granola crowd in that college town.

The other close congressional race features GOP incumbent Jay Rhodes (son of former House Minority Leader John Rhodes) against political newcomer Sam Coppersmith. Rhodes narrowly won a primary against four challengers, wearing his conservative credentials on his sleeve, making no secret of the fact he's pro-life and anti-gun-control. Coppersmith, a member of the ACLU and a former head of Northern Arizona's Planned Parenthood, is neither.

Republicans rule the state's House of Representatives, but they lost control of the Senate in 1990. However, with new district lines and the departure of a couple of entrenched Democrats, GOP leaders believe they can end up with as many as 18 of the chamber's 30 seats (they now have 13). If that happens, the Senate would no longer be a graveyard for GOP Governor Fife Symington's choice-in(public)-schools proposal. Also, a Republican Senate presumably would not balk at confirming gubernatorial nominees to cabinet posts. In contrast, Democratic Senators have been slow to confirm appointees suspected of dishonorable intentions--i.e., a desire to trim the state budget.