Climate change and vulnerable ecosystems of Pakistan Dr. M. S Soomro; Dr. A.H. Bajoi and Dr. I. Ghaznavi.

_, November 16, 2009 (Balochistan Times): Climate change is a serious environmental challenge that will undermine the development goals. Since last 200 years, the mean surface temperature of Earth has increased on an average of 2 Celsius due to the accumulation of greenhouse gases(GHG) in the atmosphere. Most of this change has occurred in the past 30 to 40 years, and the rate of increase is accelerating. The global rise in temperature is 0.6 oC in the previous century while global sea level has increased by about 15 to 20 cm. The global temperatures are estimated to rise to a level of 1.4 to 5.8o Celsius by the end of the century, if appropriate mitigation measures to reduce GHGs emissions, are not adopted. According to Rajendra Pachauri, the Chairman IPPC, the impacts of climate change are clearly turning out to be much worse than what we had anticipated earlier. The governments, communities, and civil society are increasingly concerned with anticipating the future effects of climate change while searching for strategies to mitigate and adapt to its current and future effects. The most recent report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) of February 2007, believed to be very authentic has confirmed that climate change is unequivocal, and linked with human interventions. The greenhouse gas emissions principally carbon dioxide (CO2) that lead to global warming mainly stem from the smoke coming out from the chimneys of the industrial countries. The CO2 concentration for hundreds of thousands of years was stable at the range of 270-280 ppm but at present it is at 385 ppm. The Nasa research team has concluded that Earths atmosphere couldnt support above 350 ppm of CO2. If we are committed to prevent things from going worst, the global leaders must think and agree to limit the CO2 emissions within 350 ppm. Drastic changes in weather patterns, rising sea levels and increased frequency and intensity of extreme weather conditions are very often witnessed these days. This in turn will increase disasters, floods, droughts affecting livelihood. Climate change is recognized as a major threat to prosperity. China and United States alone contribute to 41.7% of the total global emissions of CO2 where as Pakistan contributes to just 0.5% of the total global releases. This confirms that we are not polluters but are victims of climate change. Pakistan is among the top twelve countries on the climate change hit list. Asian Development Bank modelling studies show that climate change will hit south Asian countries hard and assume that sea levels in the region will rise up to 70 cm. The IPCC has recently established a clearer human induced link to the growing climate changes we witness in the world today. There is now increasing evidence that the current extreme events like Tsunami and recent three major storms in Philippines in just 5 weeks claiming more than 1100 lives are the human effects on climate. Having its economy based on agriculture, Pakistan is facing major challenges of climate change on its land and water resources, consequently on agriculture and food security. There are chances of decline in yields from 9 to 30% if global temperature rises by 1 to 4 oC. Glaciers are receding due to rise in global temperatures causing floods but later the water resources shall deplete, adversely affecting the agricultural produce through droughts Arid and semiarid regions of Sindh and Balochistan are experiencing severe droughts (1996-2003). This is evident from the fact that rainfall has decreased 10-15% in coastal belt and hyper arid plains over the past 40 years while there is an increase in summer and winter rains in northern Pakistan. Crops cannot sustain frequent weather changes and this is going to reduce crop yields to the extent up to 50%. Population is growing at 2.69%per annum while the crop productivity is expected to decline due to climate change. This challenges our food security plans and deserve immediate action to avert poverty and food shortage. The fragile ecosystem of coastal belt is under severe threat due to climate change. Fourteen cyclones are recorded from 1970 to 2001 on Sindh coast. Mangrove forests have declined from 260,000 hectares in 1970 to just 86,000 hectares in Sindh (95%) and Balochistan (5%) coast. Mangroves absorb 70-90% of wave energy and effectively stop sea encroachment in deltaic region. The sea has encroached in Indus delta spoiling around 2 million fertile land in districts Badin and Thatta. The fact that Pakistan is not a polluter yet it is on top hit list of 12 countries to be among the hard hit countries due to climate change. Among the most effective measures to face the climate change are i) Mitigation ii) Adaptation iii) Capacity Building and iv) Mainstreaming. The task of capacity building is the responsibility of the Ministry of Environment and Climate Change and sister organizations working on climate change. Universities are higher seats of learning and capacity building endeavours can successfully be undertaken in the Universities. Lasbella University of Agriculture, Water and Marine Sciences Uthal Balochistan (LUAWMS) and IUCN Pakistan jointly organized a seminar on Climate change and Vulnerable Ecosystems of Pakistan on 14th October 2009. Leading experts of Climate Change from various parts of Pakistan participated in the seminar. Dr. Abdul Hameed Bajoi, Vice Chancellor Lasbella University, welcoming the seminar participants pointed out that Pakistan is a developing country whose economy mainly depends upon agriculture which is more susceptible to the effects of climate change. He pointed out the lack of modern sophisticated equipments and technical resources due to which Pakistan does not have adequate monitoring systems to predict the likelihood of occurrence of extreme events. He pointed out that the recent disastrous events occurring in some Asian and African countries have demonstrated our growing vulnerability to climate change. Mr. Zabardast Khan Bangash, Manager Balochistan Program IUCN portrayed the real picture of our disturbed ecosystems and informed that the Pakistan had four distinct seasons but it is very unfortunate that the climate change has vanished the border lines of seasons by shortening some and extending the others. As such the agriculture sector suffers the most. This will have a severe impact on the overall biodiversity, flora and fauna around us. He desired that the world must be cautious before it is too late. Mr. Muhammad Munir Sheikh of Global Change Impact Studies Centre Islamabad in his key note address informed that the Green House Gases (GHG) which are the major factors of climate change, have increased manifold the negative effects and have brought turmoil in climate system. He emphasized the need to study and monitor adverse impacts of climate change on different socio-economic sectors such as water resources and agriculture production. Glaciers melt due to climate change, is a big threat to the countrys water resources and needs systematic studies to be carried out on mass balance of glaciers, he added. Mr. Sheikh stressed the need to establish a network of meteorological stations and capacity building in the use and modification of mathematical models in climate change related studies. Mr. Sheikh desired the government to formulate Climate Change policy and suggested to include curriculum on Climate Change at university level. Mr. Shah Murad Aaliyani Country Representative IUCN Pakistan explained the activities of the IUCN all over the world and pointed out that his organization plays a leading role in Environment related issues at global level. Mir Ghulam Jan, Minister for Environment Government of Balochistan in his presidential address said the government wishes that our people, who mostly depend on agriculture, must be supported against all the evils of the climate change and showed his commitment to solve the problems of the people. He said the government is keen to conserve the countrys natural resources including land, water and forests and coastal ecosystem. Dr. Pervaiz Amir of Asianics Agro Development quoting very recent reports of IFPRI pointed out that the grain production in south Asia could go down by as much as 50% up to year 2050 due to climate change. He pointed out last weeks extreme event of rainfall in India that occurred six times more than 40 years average. He informed that Pakistan is already facing severe crisis situation where prices of all grains are in turmoil, and most food stuffs are far above the affordable price. Dr. Amir emphasized that efforts may be focused to enhance resource utilization and desired the scientists of the country to focus their attention to face the climatic challenges through adoptable crop varieties and recommended to use mixed cereals to shift consumer pressure on wheat alone. Dr. Lekhraj Kella talking on the impact of climatic change on dry lands of Pakistan informed that the dry lands are low in political and economic development agenda. Dr. Kella suggested checking deforestation, reducing GHGs effects and supporting policies that address the climate changes. He pinpointed the efforts taken by the government in tackling climate change issues. Dr. Shahid Amjad, former Dean, Faculty of Marine Sciences, Lasbella University, talked on the Impact and Opportunities of Climate Change on Coastal Areas of Pakistan. He said, the climatic changes have threatened the coastal and offshore ecosystems and resulted in reduced mangrove forests and biodiversity and sea encroachment 7500 km2 in Indus delta. Fresh water lakes (dhands) of Badin have turned brackish, fish and shrimp breeding grounds are under threat due to increased temperature and nutrient depletion. He emphasized the need for capacity building to concentrate on climate change mitigation measures and resource conservation strategies. Dr. Mohsin Iqbal informed that temperature increase in Pakistan is expected to be higher than global average increases and monsoons may undergo large changes in timing and intensity. Rapid recession of glaciers will threaten Indus River System (IRS) flows and ultimately agriculture. Climate change may induce increased floods and droughts and increase deforestation, risk to coastal lands and biodiversity. Mr. Sadullah Ayaz of IUCN Pakistan talked about mitigation options of Climate Change and discussed various technologies related to the abatement of the effects of Climate Change. He opined that the cost for GHGs reduction in developed countries could be 10 to 50 times higher than the developing countries. Mr. Imran Hameed Durrani informed that warmer climate due to rise in temperature not only cause glaciers to melt but also cause sea water to expand in volume as it warms and referred projections indicating that on an average, dry areas will tend to get drier and wet areas shall tend to get wetter. After the presentations, the panel of experts were invited to respond to the queries of participants and to formulate the recommendations of the seminar. Finally, the anchor person Dr. Ishaq Ghaznavi, former Dean, Faculty of Marine Sciences Lasbella University thanked all the guests and participants. Recommendations A unanimous consensus prevailed among the experts that in the upcoming United Nations Conference on climate change to be held in Copenhagen in December, 2009; the developing nations must urge on issue of 'climate justice', demanding the developed nations (polluters) to pay more for the mitigation and adaptive actions to combat the climate change. Experts panel unanimously recommended as under: 1. A National Climate Change Policy should be formulated and implemented. A National Data Bank may be established to provide climate change related authentic data of the country. 2. The density of Met stations should be enhanced and brought in line with WMO standards. Vulnerability of ecosystems of different areas and communities to climate change should be assessed through reliable analytical tools and simulation models. 3. Capacity enhancement of research institutions, government functionaries, media, vulnerable communities and stakeholders should be carried out to enable them to combat against climate change effects. 4. An Early Warning System should be developed and Disaster Management Cell should be strengthened. 5. A systematic study of the dynamics and snow volume of HKH (Hindu Kush-Karakoram-Himalaya) region, and changes in river flows, should be carried out. 6. Continuous and analytic monitoring of floods resulting from glacier melt should be done and contingent plans to store the excess water in suitable reservoirs for future use be prepared. 7. Rainwater harvesting technologies should be adopted in vast catchments to minimize soil erosion and conserve rainwater for agriculture, livestock and groundwater recharge 8. New heat/water stress tolerant crop varieties, high yielding/low delta & salt- tolerant crop varieties for dry-lands, crop diversification, new cropping systems, monitoring of land use changes, soil and water conservation measures be adopted in agriculture sector. 9. Forests be protected and enhanced. In addition, high efficiency irrigation techniques such as sprinkler, bubbler and trickle irrigation may be introduced for planting fruit and fodder trees in arid areas. 10. Nutritious seasonal/pere: al grasses may be propagated in arid areas for improving degraded range lands, supporting livestock and control of soil erosion. 11. Controlled and adequate release of river discharge into sea may be ensured to stop intrusion of sea water in Indus delta and for sustainability of marine and delta ecosystems. 12. Illegal deforestation be stopped through legislation. An effective afforestation campaign should be launched through print and electronic media. It should be made mandatory for all government organizations to actively participate in such campaigns to make others to follow in real spirit. 13. The media should play its role in capacity building to create awareness among masses on the ill effects of climate change and measures to face the disasters.

(THROUGH ASIA PULSE)