Classic trials have gone Flat; Value Scope.

Byline: Dunwoody Racing legend in the Mirror

WHILE the buzz of anticipation for Cheltenham Gold Cup or the Grand National is perhaps bigger and better than ever, Flat racing's Classics tend to sneak up on us, with the trials going almost under the radar of public consciousness.

The trials are run before we know what's hit us and they do not often spark the imagination.

Channel 4 chiefs decided not to show the Craven meeting at Newmarket, when Twice Over won the big race, which is a real pity, but you have to question the value of races like the Craven and today's Greenham at Newbury as pointers to the Guineas.

While punters like to show a preference for horses who have given some recent evidence of their wellbeing, it is often safer to rely on two-year-old evidence, mixed with some trends and stable vibes.

The evolution of all-weather facilities has meant that the larger stables can do much of their serious work at home, and give their horses a racecourse spin behind closed doors. It is now pretty much the norm that the 1,000 and 2,000 Guineas winners are more likely these days to be making their seasonal debut.

This season is no exception. Antepost Vodafone Derby favourite New Approach is set to have his first run as a three-year-old in the 2,000 Guineas. Godolphin, who run their own trials in Dubai, have a pair of topquality colts in Ibn Khaldun and Fast Company, who are also expected to make their seasonal reappearances in the first Classic of the season.

While it does not devalue either Guineas, it can be argued that the public's anticipation of watching the finest three-year-old milers on first weekend in May is not what it was, or what it could be.

Some would argue that the traditional early-season Classic trials are meaningless. Today's Greenham Stakes (4.00) and the preceding Fred Darling Stakes (3.25) have proved virtually worthless as a Classic-winning form guide in recent years.

But while neither race has given too many Classic pointers, Oaks winners Light Shift (2007) and Eswarah (2005), and 2007 St Leger winner Lucarno were future British Classic winners who appeared in other races at the meeting.

That's not to say that either race won't throw up a potential Classic winner. Sir Michael Stoute saddles the twice-raced CONFRONT in the Greenham, a really powerful-looking colt by Nayef, who is a best-priced 16-1 for the 2,000 Guineas (Paddy Power) and 25-1 for the Derby (Blue Square, Bet365). Yet unless he is highly impressive, it is unlikely he will unduly shake up ante-post market.

Derby trails are almost as common as the now seemingly obligatory marketing tool, the 'Ladies Day', but are there too many?

The Blue Riband Trial, transferred from Epsom to Nottingham this year, has averaged less than five runners per race since 2000.

The bottom line is that there are only so many good three-year-olds to go round.

CAPTION(S):

CLASSIC TEAM Henry Cecil with Twice Over after winning Thursday's Craven Stakes