Citizen Arnold drawing support for capitol run.

For Arnold Schwarzenegger, it could be a case of being careful what you wish for.

His likely decision to announce his candidacy next month as a replacement for the embattled Gov. Gray Davis could quickly turn into a dogfight that will have the "Terminator" star battling on several fronts for the votes of Californians.

And as with any political neophyte, even one with the popularity of Schwarzenegger, any misstep or personal expose could quickly take on a life of its own.

To replace Davis should the recall campaign succeed, Schwarzenegger must convince Republican voters he's their man, while also fending off what's sure to be a blistering series of character attacks from Davis and the anti-recall campaign.

"Arnold does have enormous name ID and he's very goal oriented," said local Republican pollster and political consultant Arnold Steinberg. "There is tremendous potential there, but he's going to need some serious, wise, mature counsel to move from Hollywood idol to credible candidate."

There's also the competition.

Several other Republicans, including Rep. Darrell Issa, R-Vista, who has bankrolled the recall effort, state Sen. Tom McClintock, R-Thousand Oaks, and even former gubernatorial candidate Bill Simon have expressed interest. So far, Issa is the only one to set up a committee to run for governor.

Issa campaign officials said they don't plan to change their strategy if Schwarzenegger enters the race. "Congressman Issa has the resources and the positive message about the budget crisis to make a successful run," said Issa Campaign Manager Scott Taylor.

On the Democrat side, U.S. Sen. Dianne Feinstein is the most often mentioned candidate, though she has remained mum on the issue, choosing instead to take a stand blasting the recall effort. Other statewide Democratic officeholders -- including Attorney General Bill Lockyer, Insurance Commissioner John Garamendi, Lt. Gov. Cruz Bustamante and Treasurer Phil Angelides -- are eyeing the post, despite state party chair Art Torres asking Democrats to refrain from declaring themselves candidates in the recall election.

Not whether hut when

That election now looks like a virtual certainty, barring legal challenges. Recall proponents say they have between 600,000 and 700,000 signatures -- which, if true, would place them well on track towards the required 897,158 signatures by Sept. 2.

What's more, a Public Policy Institute of California poll released last week showed that 51 percent of likely voters said they would vote to recall Davis. if the recall succeeds, the top vote-getter automatically becomes governor without having to achieve a majority.

Such a circumstance would, at first glance, provide a tailor-made opportunity for a moderate like Schwarzenegger. He has already won a statewide political victory with his successful sponsorship last year of a voter initiative for after-school programs.

Schwarzenegger has been on the record several times saying he would like to ran for governor, including most recently in a cover story for Esquire Magazine. "Yes, I would love to be the governor of California," he is quoted as saying. "If the state needs me, and if there's no one I think is better, then I will run."

The comment has been widely interpreted as expressing his interest in running in the recall election. He has said he will make an announcement on his political future after he finishes marketing his latest film, "Terminator 3: Rise of the Machines." That contract is expected to wrap up in mid-July.

Should he decide to jump in, Schwarzenegger has assembled a political team with a strong track record. The likely campaign manager is George Gorton, the L.A.-based strategist who steered Pete Wilson to four gubernatorial and senatorial victories and who guided Schwarzenegger's Proposition 49 to victory last fall.

"He's a dynamic, charismatic personality who wants to get in and make some major changes in the way this state is run," Gorton said last week. "If he runs, I'd be excited to take on the job of his campaign manager."

Also likely to be on the team are other former Wilson campaign aides, Bob White and Don Sipple.

Schwarzenegger also can count on support from former L.A. Mayor Richard Riordan, another high-profile political moderate who has been talked about as a candidate. But last week, Riordan all but ruled out running himself "I had my chance," he told the Business Journal, referring to his own failed gubernatorial bid early last year.

"As of right now, I would support Arnold if he runs for governor," Riordan said. "He's a good businessman and a strong leader."

Riordan invited Gorton to a gathering of moderate Republicans at his Brentwood home several weeks ago, ostensibly to discuss the launch of a Republican think tank, but the recall election did come up.

The political dynamics of a Schwarzenegger race are complex and potentially perilous.

"He's got to identify 20 percent of the vote, go after it, and make sure that 20 percent comes out to support him," said Steve Frank, a GOP political consultant who was deputy political director for the Simon gubernatorial campaign.

That's easier said than done for someone who has no pre-existing political base.

"If he decides to go after Republicans, then he'd better burnish his Republican credentials, which right now are not very strong," Frank said. "if he decides to go after Democrats, then he's going to be contesting those votes with Lockyer, Angelides, Feinstein and whoever else runs on that side."

One key test will be his ability to address the budget crisis, which is the main issue driving the high levels of resentment against Davis. Otherwise, voters will have little reason to choose him over sticking with Davis.

But putting out a plan to balance the budget will invite opportunity for interest groups to oppose parts or all of it, since any plan will have plenty of pain to go around. That, in turn, could cost Schwarzenegger votes.

Character attack?

Perhaps the most difficult problem facing Schwarzenegger will be character attacks, primarily from Davis and the anti-recall forces.

In early 2001, a story in Premiere Magazine alleged that Schwarzenegger had extramarital affairs and was accused of sexual harassment -- charges Schwarzenegger denied.

Around that same time, Schwarzenegger hinted strongly in an interview with a Los Angeles Times columnist that he was considering a run for governor. That prompted Davis aide Garry South to circulate a memo containing references to the Premiere Magazine story; days later, Schwarzenegger dropped his preliminary gubernatorial bid.

Two months later, an article appeared in the National Enquirer detailing an alleged affair Schwarzenegger had with a female bodybuilder. Again, Schwarzenegger denied allegations of infidelity and sexual harassment.

Nevertheless, these reports have led many in California politics to question his ability to withstand a much more intense barrage. "His advisors had better be preparing him for that, because it's going to come," said one observer.

Gorton said that Schwarzenegger "will not be intimidated" by such attacks.

"He's going to focus on the big picture, on making the changes that are needed to turn this state around, starting with the budget," Gorton said.