China wants stable ties with US after election

China is watching the US presidential election closely, and whether the winner is Democrat Barack Obama or Republican John McCain, the priority for Beijing is to maintain stable ties with Washington.

The strong interest of the Chinese, awed by US power yet irritated by lectures on human rights, is shown in extensive media coverage, new titles in book stores, and even opinion surveys on the Internet.

As in the West, it is the "phenomenon" Obama who makes the difference and the Chinese are particularly intrigued by the idea that a black person could move into the Oval Office for the first time.

But no matter who comes wins the election on November 4, China wants a stable relationship with the United States in order to create an environment allowing it to pursue its overall goal of economic and social development.

"There's no doubt the priority is stability and a solution to the financial and economic crisis, which impacts directly on Chinese growth," said Valerie Niquet, an Asia scholar at the French Institute of International Relations.

"China also hopes... to ensure a certain benevolent neutrality from the United States when it comes to Chinese ambitions in Asia."

She added that Obama may be favoured because he is perceived as being more open towards China and Asia, while surrounding himself with advisers who prefer political engagement with China.

But Jia Qingguo, from the Institute of International Relations at Beijing University, said China would be happier if the Republicans stayed in power.

Traditionally, he said, when the opposition seizes power in the United States, it brings about changes in foreign policy, including the policy towards China, which are bound to lead to political volatility.

"Every time there's a new administration, we have a period of friction between China and the United States which lasts up to two years before bilateral ties return to their normal rhythm," he said.

With the Republicans, Beijing is navigating "known territory," according to Stephanie Balme, a researcher at French international relations think tank CERI.

"They know how they talk, and they can find ways to adapt and anticipate (US moves) when it comes to economic and human rights issues," she said.

"(With Obama) the Chinese may think the rhetoric on rights could become stronger."

In the essentials, the two candidates do not differ much in terms of China policy, as they both want China to make more substantial changes in areas such as trade practices, exchange rate policy and military budget transparency.

They also both expect growing Chinese support on issues such as Darfur, the Iranian nuclear programme and climate change.

Barack Obama has been more vocal than John McCain on human rights and has openly broached the subject of Tibet.

On the other hand, McCain could also cause jitters in Beijing, not least on the sensitive issue of Taiwan.

"In the case of McCain, the fear is of a strategy calling for a more robust military engagement in the Pacific, including Taiwan," said Niquet.

Beijing has already warned that if the issue of Taiwan is not handled in an appropriate manner, there will be "twists and turns" in the Sino-American relationship.

Despite this, both Obama and McCain have expressed their support for a resumption of arms sales to Taiwan, which have been suspended for the past year.

While the leadership in Beijing may have no clear favourite for president of the United States, China's mostly young Internet users have already spoken.

In an online survey carried out by popular portal Sina.com, 55 percent of 1,243 respondents wanted Obama, while only 16 percent preferred McCain.