China reaches out to India.

Byline: Manik Mehta Special to Gulf News

International publications have predicted recently that Xinjiang, the troubled Chinese province that was recently rocked by a Uighur uprising, could bring India and China closer together. The deep-rooted suspicion and mistrust between the two countries dates back to the 1950s, when Tibet's spiritual leader, the Dalai Lama, fled to India to escape Mao Ze-dong's invading army.

Indeed, the two giants fought a two-week border war in 1962 that had far-reaching implications for their relationship.

While economic ties have flourished since then - bilateral trade has surged to more than $50 billion (Dh183.9 billion) and is expected to grow further - the two nations have not settled their political problems. Indeed, Indian security experts, including the country's retired naval chief, Admiral Sureesh Mehta, were shocked by a recent article that appeared on a semi-official Chinese website calling for India to be split up into 20 or 30 sovereign states. The author could not possibly have aired such views without official approval.

Nevertheless, there are signs that China is now seeking India's cooperation to counter the Uighur "problem". China sees the Uighur revolt as "terrorism", while the Uighurs themselves believe they are pursuing a 'freedom movement' against Chinese occupation. The irony is that China follows Pakistan's lead in describing militancy in Kashmir as a "freedom struggle", while much of the world describes it as "terrorism". China's unwillingness to condemn terrorist activities perpetrated against India has not been taken kindly by India.

Not surprisingly, then, India's security experts are distrustful of China's motives and hesitant to share secret intelligence with China.

The Uighur resistance against China comes from two groups; the World Uighur Congress (WUC), based in Munich, Germany, and the East Turkestan Islamic Movement (ETIM).

Rebiya Kadeer, who heads the WUC, is popular in the West and is blamed by China for instigating July's massive demonstrations in Urumqi, which stunned the communist leadership.

The ETIM is more militant and its religious orientation makes it more dangerous in Beijing's eyes. The ETIM, which draws support from the Uighur diaspora in Pakistan, the Mideast, Afghanistan and Turkey, sees Xinjiang as an Islamic state that needs to be liberated from Chinese occupation.

Pakistan has so far failed to provide meaningful intelligence to China on the activities of the ETIM, let alone weed out elements of the organisation ensconced in Pakistan's inaccessible East Waziristan region.

Frustrated with Pakistan's response, China is now turning to India. But Indian intelligence is ill-equipped to provide first-hand information about ETIM's activities in East Waziristan region. China, a newcomer to India's long battle against terrorism, has recently encouraged contacts between its own and India's counter-terrorism units to exchange intelligence on terrorism. A bilateral Indian-Chinese counter-terrorism group has also been set up to exchange experiences and intelligence, as well as carry out joint counter-terrorism exercises.

While such exchanges could be beneficial for China, Indian strategists doubt that the intelligence provided by China will be of much value. It seems that the cooperation will be a one-sided affair, benefiting China alone, rather than creating a 'win-win' situation for both sides.

Indian public opinion of China has, generally, been negative. New Delhi also cannot ignore the sentiments of its large Muslim population, which would oppose close cooperation with China aimed at crushing a Muslim uprising in Xinjiang. Then there is the Dalai Lama factor; the Tibetan spiritual leader reportedly maintains close ties with Kadeer's WUC. The Dalai Lama's large Indian following would likely be incensed by the idea of the Indian government providing assistance to the Chinese government.

However, the Indian public's perception of China would change dramatically if Beijing settled the half-century old border dispute and returned chunks of Indian land it continues to occupy. This would herald, as one Sinologist put it, the "dawn of a new era" in India-China relations.

Aa

Manik Mehta is a commentator on Asian affairs.

Al Nisr Publishing LLC 2009. All rights reserved.

Provided by Syndigate.info an Albawaba.com company