China Watch Economic Forecast Unmasks Faulty Official Data, Overheating Economy.WASHINGTON -- China's economy is not slowing down, contrary to government assertions reported by the conventional media, and the PRC's real inflation rate is probably twice that reported by official data. Those were among the many conclusions reached in the China Watch 2005 Annual Country Forecast, published today by Orbis Publications, LLC (Logical Link Control) See "LANs" under data link protocol. LLC - Logical Link Control www.orbischina.com. The report's editor, Dr. Derek Scissors scissors Cutting instrument or tool consisting of a pair of opposed metal blades that meet and cut when the handles at their ends are brought together. Modern scissors are of two types: the more usual pivoted blades have a rivet or screw connection between the cutting ends , estimates consumer inflation hit 7 percent in 2004, nearly twice the officially reported rate of 3.9 percent. As for the economy's rate of growth, the report concludes that the government has rigged the data to portray a slowing economy -- in no small part to reassure foreign investors, falsely, that its economy is not spinning out of control. "I wouldn't even call it fuzzy math Not to be confused with fuzzy logic. Fuzzy math (also called "reformed math", "whole math", "constructivist math" or "new-new math") is an educational approach to the teaching of basic mathematics for children. . It's 'China math', where the rules of addition and division don't apply," says Scissors, referring to official government economic data. Perhaps most worrisome is the continuing surge in investment spending, which now accounts for a staggering 51 percent of GDP GDP (guanosine diphosphate): see guanine. . "Multinationals need a true picture of what's going on What's Going On is a record by American soul singer Marvin Gaye. Released on May 21, 1971 (see 1971 in music), What's Going On reflected the beginning of a new trend in soul music. in the Chinese economy, and official data doesn't give them that," said Stephen Foster, publisher of Orbis Publications www.orbischina.com. "The report makes clear that state-driven, investment-led growth has continued unabated un·a·bat·ed adj. Sustaining an original intensity or maintaining full force with no decrease: an unabated windstorm; a battle fought with unabated violence. . The rosy ros·y adj. ros·i·er, ros·i·est 1. a. Having the characteristic pink or red color of a rose. b. Flushed with a healthy glow: rosy cheeks. 2. view is that the economy is moving inexorably in·ex·o·ra·ble adj. Not capable of being persuaded by entreaty; relentless: an inexorable opponent; a feeling of inexorable doom. See Synonyms at inflexible. toward greater and greater market orientation; in fact, just the opposite is occurring," said Foster. The report forecasts that government data will show 8.8 percent GDP growth in 2005, but notes the reality behind those numbers will be different and, in most cases, more perilous. "We outline the possible outcomes. Some of them are what executives hope for but others are not pleasant." said Foster. Founded in 1984, Orbis Publications, LLC www.orbischina.com advises multinational companies on political, economic, and business conditions in China through its China Watch Executive Service and China Watch Forecasting Service. The China Watch 2005 Annual Country Forecast is available as part of the China Watch Forecasting Service. Orbis also publishes a similar service on Mexico aimed at multinational business executives, the Mexico Watch Executive Service. Please visit the website at www.orbismexico.com. Website design by Washington, DC marketing/design company Blue Water Media www.bluewatermedia.net. |
|
||||||||||||
Printer friendly
Cite/link
Email
Feedback
Reader Opinion