China, India cushion blow to cement biz.

World cement consumption is expected to decline 1.7% in 2009, a modest drop that is cushioned by a roughly four percent growth in utilization by China and India.

According to a recently report by the Portland Cement Association (PCA), gains in China and India, which together account for 58% of the world's cement consumption, will mask the harsh downturns predicted for many of the world's cement markets.

Among developing economies, consumption is anticipated to decline nearly 16% during 2009. Although world governments are engaged in massive stimulus programs, early projects most likely will be low in cement intensities.

Jobs such as bridge work, which has higher cement intensities but longer design times, will materialize full force in 2010, when worldwide, cement consumption will yield a 3.7% gain. "The magnitude of the global economic stimulus programs currently underway is unprecedented," Ed Sullivan, PCA chief economist said.

"This is concentrated, however, in developed countries. Emerging economies, with the exception of China and India, are expected to lag one year behind." Sullivan predicts continued worldwide growth rates of 7.7% and 6.9% in 2011 and 2012, respectively.

Based in Skokie, Ill., the Portland Cement Association represents cement companies in the United States and Canada. It conducts market development, engineering, research, education, and public affairs programs.